The new energy vehicle market has entered a brutal reshuffle period. Who among the new forces will leave the market in disgrace?

Do you still remember Boss Jia who said he would “return to China next week”?

He has lived abroad for a long time, but he would show up with his FF from time to time. Although the car has not been mass-produced, it did not prevent it from creating a miracle of a 1,600% surge in its stock price in 4 days.

In fact, Boss Jia is not the only new car-making force that is struggling.

Recently, there is news that AIWAYS will go public through a backdoor listing by merging with a US special purpose acquisition company. In the domestic market, AIWAYS has already stopped production and sales. This backdoor listing in the US shows that it still wants to struggle.

But China's new energy vehicle market is no longer what it used to be. The brutal elimination round has begun. At its peak, there were more than 100 new car-making forces, but now no more than 10 are still active. Under such circumstances, no matter how hard Aiways tries, it will be difficult for it to make a comeback.

Many of these new car-making forces in China were born with a silver spoon in their mouths. Take Aiways for example. It has not sold many cars since its establishment, but the total amount of financing has exceeded 10 billion yuan. It not only has its own vehicle factory, but also a battery factory and even a fuel cell manufacturing base. It can be said that Aiways has a lot of money, but it still lost in the competition, which shows the cruelty of competition in China's new energy vehicle market.

In addition to Aiways, other manufacturers such as WM Motor, Skywell, and Zotye have also fallen one after another; in early 2024, HiPhi, which has all kinds of halos, also reported a crash. It can be said that it is not uncommon for the second- and third-tier new car-making forces to suddenly die one day, and the era of rushing into the Chinese new energy market has ended.

Objectively speaking, many people have not paid much attention to the collapse of these new forces. Since last year, the only five new car-making forces that can really be active are Ideal, NIO, Xpeng, Nezha and Leapmotor. The rest are basically in a Schrodinger state.

The question now is, are the five mainstream new forces that are currently active really stable?

Among the new car-making forces, the best performer is naturally Ideal Auto, which sold 370,000 vehicles last year, far exceeding other new car-making forces, and achieved profitability. At the same time, Ideal Auto has also established a firm foothold in the high-end market of 300,000 yuan, and everything seems to be going well.

But after MEGA was launched in early March, it was quickly swept up by the public opinion frenzy, and the entire Ideal Auto was hit hard, with sales targets lowered, staff cuts, new car plans postponed, and other bad news coming one after another. If one car is not well made, the entire brand will almost fall over, which is enough to prove that Ideal Auto is not as stable as it seems.

Next is NIO. In the past two months, NIO has re-entered the upward space. At the same time, it has also launched its second brand Ledao, which has been well received. The construction of battery swap stations is also continuing to advance, and it seems to have entered a virtuous circle. However, NIO's huge losses are still a big problem, and it is hard to say whether the battery swap model is a rigid demand.

The performance of Leapmotor, Nezha, and Xiaopeng is basically at the same level. These three brands have the ability to sell 100,000 vehicles a year, but their sales have not been able to break through, and they have no clear positioning. The automobile market wins by scale. The sales of these new car manufacturers have fluctuated throughout the year, and they cannot reach the high level of 20,000 vehicles per month. As traditional manufacturers such as Geely gradually gain strength, they may also face a survival crisis.

In 2024, another new car-making force has emerged in the Chinese auto market, that is Xiaomi. The first model Xiaomi SU7 had a delivery volume of 7,000+ in the first month after its launch, which should be considered a good performance. However, it should be noted that even if Lei Jun said that the delivery volume will reach 100,000 this year, this sales volume is just another ordinary new force. It has the support of Xiaomi Group and will not go bankrupt in the short term, but it is unlikely to affect the entire industry landscape.

In the second half of 2024, the internal competition in the Chinese auto market will become more and more intense. The current mainstream new car-making forces are bound to start a second round of reshuffle, and manufacturers with insufficient strength will be eliminated. Previously, Yu Chengdong and others had predicted that China does not need so many auto brands.

As far as the current situation is concerned, the situation of Ideal and NIO is slightly better. Ideal has established itself in the high-end market, and NIO's battery swap model has unique value, and investors will not let it disappear. DeepBlue, Lantu, Zhiji, and Avita, which are dependent on traditional automakers, are unlikely to face survival crises. The real dangers are Leapmotor, Nezha, and Xiaopeng.

Leapmotor and Nezha have no bright spots, mainly relying on low-end positioning and youthful style to win; Xiaopeng Motors claims to be "the best in intelligent driving", but compared with Huawei models, it does not seem to have much advantage. In other words, it is difficult for the intelligent driving system to widen the gap with its competitors. The ideal "super dad car" positioning and Weilai's battery replacement model can build their own moats, but it is difficult for intelligent driving to reach the level of "I can do it but others can't".

If nothing unexpected happens, in the next 1-2 years, those half-dead new car-making forces may be "confirmed dead" and completely withdraw from the stage of history, and one or two of Xiaopeng, Leapmotor, and Nezha will also face a survival crisis. This is a necessary stage for China's new energy market. After the market gradually matures, automobile brands with serious homogeneity will be "merged with similar items" by market forces.

This is actually a sign that the new energy market is gradually maturing. The smartphone market back then was also a rush, and any company that just started out could make smartphones, but now there are only five mainstream domestic mobile phone brands left: Huawei, Honor, Xiaomi, OPPO, and VIVO.

The new energy vehicle market will also reach this stage. In the future Chinese new energy market, only brands with large scale and strong technical strength will be able to survive.

As a winner of Toutiao's Qingyun Plan and Baijiahao's Bai+ Plan, the 2019 Baidu Digital Author of the Year, the Baijiahao's Most Popular Author in the Technology Field, the 2019 Sogou Technology and Culture Author, and the 2021 Baijiahao Quarterly Influential Creator, he has won many awards, including the 2013 Sohu Best Industry Media Person, the 2015 China New Media Entrepreneurship Competition Beijing Third Place, the 2015 Guangmang Experience Award, the 2015 China New Media Entrepreneurship Competition Finals Third Place, and the 2018 Baidu Dynamic Annual Powerful Celebrity.