The more the price is reduced, the less it sells. The market share has dropped by 13% in the first half of the year. Japanese cars have entered garbage time in China ahead of time.

How much does a Nissan Sylphy cost?

At least tens of thousands, right?

Hundreds of thousands? That was the price three years ago. Let me tell you, it starts from 60,000. If you think it’s too expensive, you can get a discount after some hard work!

This is a true reflection of the current survival status of Japanese cars in China. You can drive home a Nissan Sylphy for more than 60,000 yuan, a Corolla for just over 70,000 yuan, and an Accord for less than 140,000 yuan.

Consumers are saying it’s so exciting, but Japanese manufacturers are suffering. After decades of entering the Chinese market, they have never been as miserable as they are today.

It is not shameful to trade price for volume. When domestic cars rose to prominence in recent years, most of them used this tactic.

Over the past year or so, the prices of both new energy vehicles and traditional fuel vehicles have actually been falling. If price cuts can lead to a significant increase in sales, then Toyota, Honda, and Nissan will bite the bullet and accept it.

The problem now is that Japanese cars can’t be helped even if they cut their prices. The Fit, which is the best model under 500,000 yuan, only sold more than 900 units a month.

Sales data show that Toyota, Honda and Nissan's sales in China in the first half of 2024 totaled 1.54 million vehicles, down 13% year-on-year. Toyota's sales fell 10.8% year-on-year, Honda's sales fell 21.5% year-on-year, and Nissan's sales fell 5.4% year-on-year.

In the past three years, Japanese car sales in China have shrunk by 950,000 units, and fire sales have not gained market share. The last mainstream car series to fall so sharply was Korean cars after 2016.

In June 2024, only four Toyota models, namely, RAV4, Corolla Sharp, Camry, Wildlander and Highlander, entered the club with monthly sales of 10,000 units. Toyota is considered to be the strongest among Japanese manufacturers, but it is not the same as its peak period. The familiar Corolla, Levin and Highlander are all excluded from the club.

In June, only two Honda models, the Accord and Honda CR-V, had monthly sales exceeding 10,000 units, while only one Nissan Sylphy had monthly sales exceeding 10,000 units, and this car was the result of selling both new and old models together.

It should be noted that the models of Japanese manufacturers have all been significantly reduced in price, and the selling prices of many main models have broken through the previous price bottom line.

The Chinese automobile market is a golden land for many manufacturers, but it is like a swamp for Japanese manufacturers. The more they cut prices, the harder it is to sell. The more they struggle, the deeper they sink, with both volume and price falling.

Generally speaking, when stock prices appear in this situation, it means that we have entered a "bear market", and the current downward trend may only be the first wave.

The continued decline in sales will bring a series of problems, the most direct of which is the large-scale withdrawal of dealers from the network. Sales are already declining, and if the marketing network collapses again, Japanese manufacturers will usher in a bigger wave of declines and enter garbage time ahead of time. It is not impossible to repeat the mistakes of Korean cars.

However, Japanese manufacturers are still stable now, and the most dangerous moment has not yet arrived. So, in the short time left, how should Japanese manufacturers adjust to save themselves?

First of all, we need to make it clear that BB A's approach of withdrawing from price wars, maintaining brand influence, and improving dealer profitability is ineffective for the two Toyotas and one Toyota. Not only is it ineffective, but once they adopt this approach, their sales will collapse faster.

BB A dares to do so because they have strong product performance and have certain advantages over domestic models. Even if the price increases, they can still attract some high-end users.

Secondly, BB A's brand influence in China is still strong, and price increases are more likely to be recognized by high-end users.

But Japanese cars do not have such capabilities. They are mainly concentrated in the mid-to-low-end market. In recent years, they have lost their brand halo, and their product performance has been greatly surpassed by domestic cars. Once the price increases, existing users will quickly leave. In today's Chinese auto market, Japanese cars are not "irreplaceable", and even the 318 is no longer dominated by Prado.

Previously, Toyota's ninth-generation Camry was launched on the market. While ensuring traditional performance, this car also added smart driving and smart cockpit that consumers like. The exterior design is also more youthful, but its performance after launch is still lukewarm.

The penetration rate of new energy vehicles in China has exceeded 40%. Consumers are paying attention to new energy vehicles. No matter how traditional fuel vehicles are improved, it is difficult to compare with new energy vehicles of the same price in terms of vehicle cost, comfort, power performance, etc.

It is only a matter of time before pure fuel vehicles are eliminated in China. Japanese cars suffer in China because they are too dependent on fuel vehicles. If they want to turn things around, they can’t do anything by just focusing on the fuel vehicle field.

The only hope for Japanese manufacturers to turn around is new energy vehicles, this is a clear idea.

This is not only the thinking of Japanese manufacturers, but also the transformation of Volkswagen. In other markets around the world, the development of new energy vehicles may encounter twists and turns, or even be counterattacked by fuel vehicles, but in the Chinese market, this trend is unlikely to change.

But the problem is that it is unlikely that Japanese manufacturers can create hot-selling new energy vehicles on their own.

Among the new energy vehicle models of Japanese manufacturers, the only one that can sell well is Toyota bZ3, with an average monthly sales of about 4,000 units. However, this car mainly relies on B-end online car-hailing to contribute to its sales, and it is equipped with BYD's motors and batteries.

The sales of new energy vehicles made by Toyota, Honda and Nissan are all in a mess. With new energy manufacturers in China already occupying 80% of the market share, Japanese manufacturers must come up with truly breakthrough technologies if they want to turn the tide on their own, but judging from the current situation, this is quite difficult.

More importantly, Japanese manufacturers cannot afford to waste time. Assuming Toyota now launches a new energy vehicle that can sell more than 5,000 units per month, it may take more than three years to complete its product layout based on the speed at which joint ventures launch new vehicles. During these three years, domestic new energy manufacturers have launched many new vehicles.

The best option for Japanese manufacturers at present may be to cooperate with Chinese manufacturers and seek technical support. However, to carry out such cooperation, Toyota and other Japanese manufacturers need to at least adopt the attitude of Volkswagen to bend over and learn, which is exactly what the Japanese, who are used to bowing, cannot accept.

As a winner of Toutiao's Qingyun Plan and Baijiahao's Bai+ Plan, the 2019 Baidu Digital Author of the Year, the Baijiahao's Most Popular Author in the Technology Field, the 2019 Sogou Technology and Culture Author, and the 2021 Baijiahao Quarterly Influential Creator, he has won many awards, including the 2013 Sohu Best Industry Media Person, the 2015 China New Media Entrepreneurship Competition Beijing Third Place, the 2015 Guangmang Experience Award, the 2015 China New Media Entrepreneurship Competition Finals Third Place, and the 2018 Baidu Dynamic Annual Powerful Celebrity.