United Nations Environment Programme: Emissions Gap Report 2024

UNEP has published its 2024 Emissions Gap Report, which looks at how much greenhouse gas cuts countries must commit to in the next round of Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), due in early 2025 ahead of COP30. To meet the 1.5°C target, emissions would need to be cut by 42% by 2030 and 57% by 2035.

Without raising the ambition of these new NDCs and starting implementation now, the world is on track to warm by 2.6-3.1°C this century. This will have devastating impacts on people, the planet and economies.

Achieving 1.5°C is still technically possible, with solar, wind and forests promising broad and rapid emissions reductions. Realizing this potential urgently requires support from a whole-of-government approach, measures to maximize socioeconomic and environmental co-benefits, enhanced international cooperation (including reforms to the global financial architecture), strong private sector action and at least a sixfold increase in mitigation investments. The G20 countries, especially the largest emitters, need to shoulder the heavy responsibility.

Key findings

1. In 2023, global greenhouse gas emissions hit a new record of 5.71 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent, up 1.3% from 2022 levels.
2. There are large gaps between current, per capita and historical emissions by major emitters and by regions of the world.
3. Progress in ambition and action since the initial NDCs has stagnated, and countries remain off track to meet their 2030 global mitigation commitments.
4. The implied emissions trajectory of G20 members towards net zero emissions shows reason for concern.
5. The emissions gaps in 2030 and 2035 compared to pathways that limit warming to 1.5°C and 2°C remain large.
6. The time lost since 2020 increases global warming projections and reduces the feasibility of closing the gap.
7. Immediate action is critical: temperature projections based on conditional NDC scenarios are 0.5°C cooler than those based on current policies.
8. The G20 has a key responsibility in narrowing the emissions gap. It is both cost-effective and equitable for the G20 to reduce emissions faster than the global average.
9. The potential for emissions reductions by 2030 and 2035 is huge, but time is short and realizing the potential requires overcoming ongoing challenges and scaling up policies, support and funding.

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