KGI Securities: iPhone 7 will not sell better than iPhone 6S

Recently, according to foreign media reports, although many US operators have said that iPhone 7 pre-sales are hot, the sales of this model are believed to be higher than last year's iPhone 6S. However, KGI Securities has recently given a completely different conclusion in its own research report, predicting that the final sales of iPhone 7 before the end of this year will hardly surpass the performance of iPhone 6S at the end of 2015.

Ming-Chi Kuo, a well-known analyst at KGI Securities, said that he has raised his expected sales volume of iPhone 7 by the end of this year from 65 million units to 70-75 million units. This is mainly because the global recall of Samsung Note 7 has made more consumers focus on Apple products and the powerful appeal of the dual cameras on the iPhone 7 Plus.

Meanwhile, KGI Securities pointed out that the accuracy of the iPhone 7 sales data previously provided by various operators is difficult to ascertain, as many of their promotional activities, including the "free phone exchange event", do not reflect the real market demand. In addition, Apple's simultaneous launch in many countries around the world also helped iPhone 7 stocks to be sold out in many markets around the world.

In addition, Kuo Ming-chi also mentioned that the yield rate of the popular jet black shell is currently only 60-70%, which is why the jet black iPhone 7 Plus is in very short supply in the market, and also allows Apple investors to benefit from rising stock prices in the short term.

It should be pointed out that Guo Mingchi's prediction is different from the predictions made by many Korean analysts. Lee Seung Woo, an analyst at IBK Investment & Securities, revealed that Apple's Korean component suppliers received 80-85 million orders before the release of iPhone 7, and Apple recently increased the order quantity by 17-25%, which means that iPhone 7 may achieve a shipment volume of 100 million units by the end of the year.

In fact, one day before the official release of iPhone 7, Apple announced that the first batch of iPhone 7 Plus and iPhone 7 jet black models had been sold out. John Legere, CEO of US carriers, said that the demand for iPhone 7 was "phenomenal" and that the pre-order volume of the product was four times that of iPhone 6, which was also the best pre-sale data in the company's history.

In this regard, UBS analysts Steven Milunovich and Benjamin Wilson believe that iPhone 7 sales this year are expected to rise from the previously estimated 80 million units to 89 million units. This figure is better than the 87 million units sold by iPhone 6S, but lower than the sales performance of 93 million units during the iPhone 6 period.

In addition, JPMorgan analysts, like Guo Mingchi, are not very pessimistic about the future sales of iPhone 7. They believe that the free replacement campaign for iPhone 6 and iPhone 6S by the four major US operators will end in October, so the final sales of iPhone in the US market in the fourth quarter will be lower than Wall Street expectations.

As a winner of Toutiao's Qingyun Plan and Baijiahao's Bai+ Plan, the 2019 Baidu Digital Author of the Year, the Baijiahao's Most Popular Author in the Technology Field, the 2019 Sogou Technology and Culture Author, and the 2021 Baijiahao Quarterly Influential Creator, he has won many awards, including the 2013 Sohu Best Industry Media Person, the 2015 China New Media Entrepreneurship Competition Beijing Third Place, the 2015 Guangmang Experience Award, the 2015 China New Media Entrepreneurship Competition Finals Third Place, and the 2018 Baidu Dynamic Annual Powerful Celebrity.