Mobile phone shipments surged by nearly 60%, the market is recovering, who is changing their phones?

Data released recently by the China Academy of Information and Communications Technology shows that domestic mobile phone shipments in September this year increased by nearly 60% year-on-year. Multiple market consulting reports also show that the domestic mobile phone market is recovering. Is a new wave of "mobile phone replacement" coming?

With a 60% surge, is the mobile phone market recovering?

The latest data from the China Academy of Information and Communications Technology shows that in September 2023, the domestic mobile phone shipments reached 33.277 million units, a year-on-year increase of 59.0%. Among them, 5G mobile phones reached 28.717 million units, a year-on-year increase of 90.1%, accounting for 86.3% of mobile phone shipments in the same period.

According to data from an e-commerce platform, during the "Double 11" shopping festival, the sales volume of foldable phones increased by more than 3 times year-on-year, and the sales volume of operator contract phones increased by more than 10 times year-on-year. A certain brand of mobile phone, which was just released at the end of November, sold 600,000 units in just 5 minutes after it went on sale...

Multiple consulting reports also show that the mobile phone market is recovering. Canalys, an independent technology market analysis agency, said that after the global smartphone market experienced a sharp decline of 12% in 2022, the market showed initial signs of recovery in 2023. Although shipments are expected to fall by 5% in 2023, there are signs of recovery.

Why the surge? Is the “mobile phone replacement wave” coming?

According to the data from China Academy of Information and Communications Technology, in August this year, the domestic mobile phone shipments reached 18.985 million units, a year-on-year increase of 0.03%. The growth of the mobile phone market has almost stagnated. Why did this data suddenly surge in September?

Liang Zhenpeng, a senior industrial economist observer, told China News Service that this fall, multiple market brands released flagship models, including Huawei's Mate60 series, which sold well in the market; coupled with the increasingly mature folding screens that have been favored by many consumers, it has stimulated consumers' desire to buy.

"On the other hand, judging from the data, the mobile phone market was sluggish last year and the base was small, so there has been a significant increase this year," said Liang Zhenpeng.

Telecom industry analyst Fu Liang told China News Service that this was mainly due to the release of a series of new products in the mobile phone industry chain, including the third-generation Qualcomm Snapdragon 8, Apple mobile phones, and new Huawei mobile phones.

A report released by market research firm Counterpoint believes that China's smartphone market is recovering, with average sales increasing by 11% in the first four weeks of October this year. "We believe that 2020 will be a big year for mobile phone replacement in China, and after more than three years, a new 'replacement wave' is expected."

Who is changing their phones? Is male consumption on the rise?

According to a report released by iResearch Consulting in November, compared with ordinary users, young people of Generation Z show consumption characteristics of pursuing new trends and refusing to delay gratification, and the frequency of changing mobile phones is significantly higher; among instant retail users, nearly 70% of young people of Generation Z will choose to replace their mobile phones within 1 year.

A consumer who recently changed his mobile phone told China News Service, "Now all mobile phone brands have launched trade-in programs. An old mobile phone that has only been used for one year can be converted into an acceptable price. I basically change my mobile phone once a year, so that I can use a new model every year."

The above report also pointed out that among those who change their phones, replacing a new phone with a new one is the most common and common purchase scenario, accounting for 34%; trying out new phones for the first time accounts for 21%, and they always want to try out new phones as soon as possible. In total, these two types account for more than half of the users who change their phones.

Some analysts believe that the hot sales of mobile phones and digital products are related to the rise of male consumer groups. Digital products have always been favored by male consumers, and this "Double 11" still performed steadily. Within 10 minutes of the opening of "Double 11" on a certain e-commerce platform, the transaction volume of big-brand mobile phones increased by 100% year-on-year, and many of them were male users.

As a winner of Toutiao's Qingyun Plan and Baijiahao's Bai+ Plan, the 2019 Baidu Digital Author of the Year, the Baijiahao's Most Popular Author in the Technology Field, the 2019 Sogou Technology and Culture Author, and the 2021 Baijiahao Quarterly Influential Creator, he has won many awards, including the 2013 Sohu Best Industry Media Person, the 2015 China New Media Entrepreneurship Competition Beijing Third Place, the 2015 Guangmang Experience Award, the 2015 China New Media Entrepreneurship Competition Finals Third Place, and the 2018 Baidu Dynamic Annual Powerful Celebrity.