WeChat red envelopes have only a tiny relationship with payment

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Frankly speaking, if Tencent collapsed, it must have been overpraised, because no one knew what mobile Internet was like, so they had to praise WeChat and prove their own wisdom. Everything related to WeChat was praised, such as the "scan and sweep the world", the "value of comments", and last year's "red envelopes" subverted Alipay, etc. Until today, only games have been made, but according to the financial report, the revenue has also peaked and declined.

In fact, when everyone was praising the public platform, I said that the most valuable thing about WeChat was the marketing in Moments. Many people were dismissive. I remember that some of the current micro-marketing masters wrote articles to criticize my Moments training, saying that their public platform training was free, and that Moments could not do marketing at all, and that training was actually charged. Today, these people have become training masters of Moments marketing, and make a living by performing everywhere.

Then let's look at WeChat red envelopes. This thing was very popular last year. It was once said that it made Jack Ma very nervous. However, 2014 was no different. This year, the red envelope war in 2015 has spread to the entire industry. WeChat's red envelopes use the shake function. In fact, I think this setting is not very good because it changes the setting of the previous shake function. Many people say that WeChat has made billions of red envelopes, and it has shaken Taobao's Alipay. I think they think too much. Why are WeChat red envelopes so popular? If you think of it as a payment product, you think too much. The essence of WeChat red envelopes is just a game, and Tencent is best at games, so this game that packages tradition and has money to share has become popular. After the Spring Festival, everyone will stop playing, and everything will return to the original state. It has nothing to do with payment, just a dime to open.

However, I must complain that after Tencent distributed red envelopes during the Spring Festival Gala, it boasted about how great it was and how much red envelopes it guaranteed to distribute. However, my own WeChat was paralyzed for almost 12 hours, and a conservative estimate is that the loss of red envelopes is over 10,000 yuan. So I was very angry. With such stability, what's the point of payment?

Payment is a very complex thing, involving many aspects, of which users are only one aspect. The advantage of WeChat Pay is that it has connections, while the advantage of Alipay is that it has scenarios, and payment itself is still based on scenarios, so Alipay's position will not be shaken for a while. This is because Alipay's payment is based on Taobao's trillion-dollar annual transaction.

I can explain this question a little bit. For example, in the previous credit card war between banks, everyone gave away a lot of gifts to cardholders. So, will users use the credit card with the most gifts? I think most people use the credit card of the bank where their salary card is located, because it is easy to repay. Therefore, payment is based on scenarios. If there is no scenario, there is no payment. The problem with WeChat's success is that its strategy has always been vague. For example, the circle of friends marketing was originally the best scenario for WeChat payment, but it has not been supported and has been more inclined to suppress it. At the beginning, a threshold of 20,000 yuan was set. As a result, everyone still traded on WeChat and paid with Alipay, which made WeChat lose the opportunity to succeed. It is worth mentioning that in terms of scenario construction, Alipay's Internet water, electricity and gas ideas are still very clear. Now when you go to Europe to get a tax refund, you can directly transfer it to your Alipay account. Therefore, Alipay's competitor is not WeChat Pay, but UnionPay. UnionPay is constrained by its own system and lacks innovation capabilities, but its resources are really powerful. It is very likely to become a dark horse, and it is also the player with the most potential in my opinion. Previously, there seemed to be a super bank service on the PC that could manage all the bank cards under your name. If you move it to a mobile phone and add quick payment, it is still very scary.

Yu'ebao is a god-level product. The value of this product is not that it has overturned the previous financial product pattern. Its core value is that it has transformed Alipay from a guarantee tool into a bank. More people are willing to deposit money in Yu'ebao. Before, if you had money in Alipay, you must withdraw it as soon as possible. Now you don't have to withdraw it. It has basically replaced the bank. If it focuses on salary payment in the future, and then comes a physical card, plus Ali Bank has already started the pilot, Alipay's construction in payment scenarios will be very complete.

WeChat Pay has a very poor construction in the scene. The average person can hardly find a place to use it. The proportion of consumption for taxis or JD.com is so low that it is not worth mentioning. Previously, it made efforts in offline O2O but finally gave up. In this case, the function of WeChat Pay is still very single, and the scene that can be seen the most is the micro-business that WeChat does not like, and the market is already hundreds of billions. The trade-offs in this point will ultimately determine the height of WeChat Pay.

Of course, I still want to say what I have always said: Tencent is an Internet company, but Alibaba is not. It is just a business or financial service company that uses Internet tools. I never think that e-commerce people are Internet people. The competition between the two does not overlap much, so you don’t have to worry about who will subvert whom.

[Editor: chenqingxiang TEL: (010) 68476606]