Is Windows a pseudo-open source?

A recent report that Windows may become open source in the future has caused a strong response in the industry. Most comments believe that this is a self-help choice for the weak traditional PC industry, but is it really so?

[[132465]]

The weakness of the PC market and the poor performance in the smartphone market are not due to the closed-source Windows. There are many reasons for the weakness of the PC market, among which the weakness of user demand and the impact of tablets and smartphones are relatively important factors. However, from the perspective of the entire PC software ecosystem, Windows still occupies an irreplaceable position and advantage. Although there are Mac OS X and Chrome OS competing with it, the results are currently minimal. Looking at the smartphone market, the reason why Microsoft performed poorly in this market is that it did not attach importance to the mobile market strategy before. After Microsoft realized the importance of the mobile market, it adopted the so-called "system integration" strategy. The idea of ​​integration is good, but before the launch of Windows 10, Microsoft's integration strategy was not actually a real integration, and it did not adopt a unified Windows core. Traditional PCs and the mobile market represented by smartphones and tablets have completely different application scenarios and methods. This determines that it is difficult to use the same system to take into account the technology of cross-border experience, which is why Apple and Google still use different systems in the mobile and PC markets today.

Another problem is Microsoft's development strategy in the mobile market. For example, during the acquisition of Nokia, Microsoft unexpectedly launched its own Meego system N9 phone and Android-based phones, which made the industry waver in Microsoft's Windows ecosystem in the mobile market. More importantly, after the acquisition of Nokia, Microsoft's main low-price strategy (the ASP of the mobile phone is only US$45) made the already fragile Microsoft mobile ecosystem even more fragile. Relevant research and analysis show that users who buy high-priced mobile phones are more willing to pay for applications, and vice versa. The low-price strategy of Microsoft mobile phones makes it difficult for users to buy applications, at least compared with iOS and Android. But the chain effect that follows is that it is difficult for developers to earn income from Microsoft's mobile ecosystem, which in turn affects their enthusiasm for developing applications for Microsoft, forming a vicious cycle. For example, Weather Flow, one of WP's popular weather applications, was recently officially removed from the app store. The developer Gergely Orosz said the reason was that the income was not enough to cover the expenses. Weather Flow's data usage fee is as high as US$1,500 per month, but his income from Weather Flow is only US$500 per month, and it is still declining. According to statistics, many mainstream applications on iOS and Android platforms have not yet entered the Windows platform. Even if they have already entered, their experience is still different from that on iOS and Android platforms.

What would happen if Windows was really open source? In the PC market, the existing Windows ecosystem would be broken, and many applications would have to be rebuilt from scratch. This is undoubtedly the biggest blow to corporate users who have always relied on Microsoft. What would happen after open source? In the mobile market, we can compare Android, where fragmentation is inevitable. The result of fragmentation is that Google has failed to install new applications on users' phones through Android. This is also the main reason for the emergence of Android One, which is to take back control of Android through this system. But from the current point of view, the effect is not obvious. Therefore, whether in the PC or mobile market, Windows open source will do more harm than good to Microsoft. Moreover, the so-called Windows open source statement only came from a technical employee of Microsoft. He was just talking, so don't take it too seriously.