The strong dragon cannot defeat the local snake. Google's return to China is doomed to be a tragedy.

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Recently, it is said that Google intends to return to the mainland market, and Google Play is the forerunner. However, in my opinion, even if Google Play successfully enters the domestic market, it is doomed to be a tragedy.

Google has been away from the domestic market for five years. Although it still has a huge advertising business in China and the Android system has become a mainstream operating system, Google's main search, email, video and other services are still not unblocked.

In the five years since Google left, the development of mobile devices has made China a huge Internet market, and a number of local companies have also emerged strongly. Many companies have provided alternatives to the blocked services of Google.

Domestic Internet industry insiders said that it would not be difficult for Google Play to pass the authorities' review, as long as Google agrees to the government reviewing its content.

“The Apple Store did the same thing, and now the Apple Store has become a huge success,” one of them said.

But even if Google Play passes the authorities' review, Google, like other foreign technology giants such as Uber and Facebook, faces strong competition from its own companies.

Take Google Search as an example. Before it withdrew from the domestic market, Google accounted for 35.6% of the domestic search market revenue. In the third quarter of this year, Baidu accounted for 81.1% of the search market revenue, while Google only accounted for 10.2%. If the revenue from overseas markets is excluded, this figure will further drop to 3.92%. If Google Search returns at this time, it will be difficult to compete with Baidu.

Industry insiders said that among all Google services, Google Play is the most likely to succeed. The domestic application market is very chaotic, with various application markets emerging one after another. Google Play can serve as a standard and become a benchmark. But it is not as easy as imagined.

At present, many domestic companies have established Android application markets, including Baidu, Xiaomi, Wandoujia and other startups. An iPhone only needs one application market, but an Android phone can have multiple application markets, and in most cases, these application markets are installed without the user's knowledge. In the eyes of these manufacturers, words such as security and privacy do not exist at all, which can be described as rogue.

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Google Play's domestic competitors at a glance

It is not clear how Google Play will coexist with the existing app stores. Moreover, there is another point that is extremely unfavorable to Google: many domestic Android phones come with the app store pre-installed when they leave the factory.

Of course, Google can also do this. It can ask or even pay these manufacturers to pre-install Google Play. However, it should be noted that most domestic manufacturers have their own application distribution channels. They cannot pre-install Google Play, which will greatly affect their application revenue. Take Xiaomi for example. It has its own application market, theme store and cloud service. It is almost impossible for Google Play to come in.

Furthermore, books, movies, and music are an important part of Google Play. Entering China will inevitably lead to many copyright issues. Therefore, from the very beginning, the resources that Google Play can provide are at a disadvantage.

Whether Google Play can succeed depends largely on whether Google is willing to delegate power to the domestic team. Industry insiders suggest that Google choose to cooperate with a domestic competitor to avoid policy risks, reduce approval processes, establish its own payment system, and expand its user base. LinkedIn and Uber are good examples.

Uber has set up an independent office in China, UberChina, and reached a strategic cooperation with Baidu to integrate Baidu Maps and Baidu Wallet. LinkedIn is also taking a similar approach.

In fact, Google is not alone. Other foreign technology giants are also watching Google's every move. There are signs that Facebook is also seeking to enter the domestic market. Whether it can succeed also depends on whether it is willing to accept content censorship. Similarly, even if Facebook is unblocked, it can only gain a small number of users. The status of WeChat and Weibo is not so easy to shake.

"Google should start the process of entering China as soon as possible while it still has a certain user base in China," said a former Google employee. "Many college students are not familiar with Google services because they haven't touched Google products for five years. Some young people don't even know what Google is."