In the wave of madness and impetuousness, will Apple fall behind the 5G era?

Some time ago, China Mobile announced that the first batch of 5G mobile phones will reach 8,000 yuan, which triggered a wave of discussion. The public and the industry are paying more and more attention to 5G, and under the 5G wave, there is an atmosphere of impetuousness and madness. If nothing unexpected happens, in the next 2-3 years, companies that have caught up with the 5G concept will be favored by capital, and their stock prices will rise.

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In the mobile phone industry, the 5G war is already underway. In addition to Apple, mobile phone manufacturers from Xiaomi, OPPO, Vivo to Lenovo, ZTE and HTC have all revealed their 5G strategies and signs.

According to reports, OPPO is continuously developing 5G technology and is expected to release commercial 5G mobile phones in 2019 and launch 5G mobile phone products in 2020. Dr. Cui Xian, technical director of vivo, said at the 2018 IMT-2020 (5G) Summit that vivo has started the research and development of 5G terminal test prototypes and plans to launch the first batch of 5G pre-commercial terminals in 2019; it is expected to realize the commercialization of 5G smartphones in 2020.

Earlier, Huawei's rotating chairman Xu Zhijun said that Huawei's 5G strategy is to first launch commercial 5G wireless routers for home use, and then 5G wireless WiFi products to verify 5G mobile phone basebands. The first is the first 5G smartphone equipped with Kirin 990 with integrated 5G baseband Balong, which is expected to be released in the second half of 2019. Samsung has also been preparing for 5G. In the Indian market, Huawei will cooperate with Bharti Airtel, India's largest telecommunications brand, to build a 5G communication network, while Samsung will form an alliance with Reliance Jio to build a 5G network.

Of course, some people will say that Lenovo has already released the 5G mobile phone Moto Z3, and it is the world's first 5G mobile phone manufacturer. Of course, since there is no 5G network and Qualcomm's current generation of chips do not support 5G, we can skip this.

Apple is the manufacturer that is a step behind. According to a report by Bloomberg, Apple will not add support for 5G networks to the 2019 iPhone, and Apple has no plans to launch 5G iPhones at least before 2020. Fast Company reported in early November that the 5G iPhone will be available in 2020. Apple may use Intel's 8161 5G modem chip in its new products to improve the speed and efficiency of the phone.

However, there is a certain gap between Intel's baseband and Qualcomm's solution. Although Intel's 8161 5G modem chip is already on the way, Intel is far behind Qualcomm in the modem market. This may be an important reason why Apple delayed the release of 5G.

People believe that the feud between Apple and Qualcomm will affect the early launch and commercialization of Apple's 5G mobile phones, and will cause Apple to miss the 5G era. Because Qualcomm released the world's first 5G baseband chip Snapdragon 855 for mobile devices in October 2017, at the 2018 Qualcomm China Technology and Cooperation Summit, mobile phone manufacturers that joined the Qualcomm camp included Lenovo, OPPO, vivo, Xiaomi, ZTE and Wingtech Technology.

The so-called 5G baseband chip is responsible for receiving and sending data. The performance of the baseband chip basically determines the performance of the main processor chip of the mobile phone. In other words, the 5G chip can enable the mobile phone to achieve a theoretical data download speed of up to 10Gbps.

In the 5G era, Qualcomm's position is no longer stable

But in fact, we found that stronger mobile phone manufacturers have already fled Qualcomm, such as Apple, Samsung and Huawei. In addition to Apple, Huawei and Samsung also announced in 2017 that they would stop paying patent fees to Qualcomm and invited Qualcomm to renegotiate the patent licensing model. Samsung and Huawei are also competing to develop 5G chips, and Apple is no exception.

So just recently, Qualcomm took the lead in bowing its head and expressed its hope to continue to seek cooperation with Apple and launch an Apple 5G version of the iPhone with a built-in Qualcomm chip.

In fact, in the 5G era, Qualcomm may not be able to rest easy, because most of Qualcomm's past communication patent technologies have monopolized the technologies of the 2G and 3G eras. For example, in the 2G era, it almost completely monopolized the CDMA patent technology and also monopolized most of the 3G patent technologies.

But in the 5G era, Qualcomm's trouble is that its 2G/3G patents are about to expire, and Verizon, the largest CDMA telecommunications company in the United States, will completely shut down its CDMA network in 2019. China Telecom, the only CDMA telecommunications company in China, abandoned CDMA as early as 2016, and the demand for 2G/3G patented technologies for 5G mobile phones has declined.

On the other hand, Huawei has launched a full set of 5G commercial network solutions based on non-standalone networking (NSA), and will launch a 5G commercial system based on standalone networking (SA) in March next year. It has currently obtained 25 5G commercial contracts and signed cooperation agreements with more than 50 business partners around the world. The number of commercial 5G base stations shipped has also exceeded 10,000.

In 5G, due to competition from Huawei, Samsung and other manufacturers, Apple stopped using Qualcomm and helped Intel to take the lead. Manufacturers such as HiSilicon and Sequans have steadily planned for growth. The market structure of smartphone baseband chips will be very delicate. Qualcomm's bargaining power and monopoly position in 5G patents are no longer as stable and strong as before 4G.

It’s not time to rush into 5G yet

Many people believe that Apple will miss the 5G era. An important argument is that many manufacturers have been preparing to release 5G mobile phones in 2019, but Apple will not enter the market until 2020. It is late and the opportunity has been taken away by others. However, Apple has the advantage of grasping the timing of 5G. Because the mobile phone manufacturers who entered the market earlier have almost hyped the concept in the early stage, after consumers' awareness has increased, it is Apple's turn to reap the benefits.

3G mobile phones entered the market in 2008, and 4G mobile phones entered the market in 2014. It took China six years to transition from the 3G to the 4G era. It is obvious that the replacement of 4G by 5G will not be that fast.

5G should first prepare for the technical preparation. The global infrastructure cannot be completed in a short time. There will be a time difference between the popularization of developed and developing countries. Generally speaking, 5G will be first in developed areas, but it should be noted that the 5G infrastructure in most markets in the United States was not ready in 2019. The 5G frequency bands will be far more than 4G, and even the standards for some frequency bands of 5gR15 have been postponed.

In addition, the number of 5G base stations may also increase several times. An industry insider pointed out, "For example, a base station in the 2G era had a coverage radius of two kilometers; in the 5G era, depending on the frequency used, the coverage radius of a base station may be only 500 meters. This requires more investment and more base stations need to be built." Although the three major operators are actively deploying 5G network construction, completing the network is a huge system project.

In addition, in order to better obtain a complete network, it is necessary to ensure the compatibility between the network and terminals and chips. Before all standards are fully determined, the deployment timing is unknown. Only when all standards are determined can operators and equipment manufacturers follow up, including the operator's 5G network commercial channels, chip basebands that support 5G networks, etc. The implementation of mobile phones that support 5G requires the former to be ready, but now the 5G standard has not yet been determined, and the testing of 5G before commercial use also requires a relatively long process.

Technologies such as millimeter waves, small base stations, Massive MIMO, full-duplex, and beamforming involved in the 5G era are not yet mature. From mobile phone access to the network to application implementation, a series of security tests, evaluations, and market tests are also required. In general, there is still a lot to be done in the industry, technology, and standards of 5G, and it is far from the time to rush into the market.

Will Apple lag behind in the 5G era? Maybe not

Apple is currently determined to get rid of Qualcomm and keep the core things in its own hands. On the one hand, 5G mobile phones are not yet mature, and Apple still has time to deploy them.

According to an earlier report by The Verge, Apple has released several new job postings, hoping to recruit engineers who can design and develop layer 1 cellular PHY chips. These job postings show that Apple is creating an internal chip team dedicated to designing next-generation 5G networks, especially millimeter wave networks. Apple may be developing its own modem chips to better compete with Qualcomm.

The Information, a paid American technology media outlet, quoted sources as saying that Apple is not only working to develop its own modem, but that this is actually an action specifically for future iPhones.

Just one month after Qualcomm sued Apple, Apple received an experimental license to test millimeter wave technology, according to Business Insider. The report said that Apple hopes to evaluate the performance of cellular links in direct and multipath environments between base station transmitters and receivers using the spectrum, and these evaluations will provide engineering data related to the operation of wireless operators' future 5G network equipment.

Apparently, Apple is seeking internal solutions to get rid of its reliance on long-term partner Intel. Apple is also planning to expand its A-series chips into customized modems to achieve similar performance and computing power. Samsung and Huawei are currently using their own developed modems and processors.

It can be known that Apple’s strategy consists of two specific steps. The first is to change chip suppliers from Qualcomm to Intel to MediaTek. Currently, Apple is also planning to cooperate with MediaTek on 5G baseband.

Of course, many industry insiders believe that Intel's modems are inferior to Qualcomm's modems in terms of performance. But it is clear that Apple's cooperation with Intel and MediaTek is more of a transitional strategy. Apple first wins the time difference, and then develops its own 5G chips, which is the ultimate goal - because Apple's desire to get rid of Qualcomm is too strong. Now it has come to this situation. For Apple, which does not want to be controlled by others, it is inevitable to reduce its dependence on Qualcomm by developing its own core components.

In 2017, Apple's R&D budget reached $12 billion, including designing its own GPU and developing its own baseband chips. In 2019, based on the layout of 5G technology, the R&D budget investment may be expanded, but when it comes to spending money on R&D, no one can beat Apple. If Apple is currently taking advantage of the generational shift in network technology and developing its own modems internally, once its own technology matures, the next step may be to get rid of Intel.

If a company with the largest cash flow in the world is determined to get rid of its dependence on Qualcomm in the 5G era, introduce multiple suppliers in the form of multiple orders, and differentiate the camps to consolidate its own strength, the ultimate goal is to grasp the core technology in its own hands through self-research and realize the replacement of its own products. Rather than saying that Apple will fall behind, it is better to say that it is more far-sighted.

Because from the perspective of the mobile phone industry, many manufacturers do not have the forward-looking sense of crisis and internal driving force to control the dominant position like Apple. Because Apple used to have few patents in the field of mobile communications, and did not get involved in network-side equipment, the investment in developing its own baseband chips is very large, and it is difficult to achieve great success in a short period of time.

But at this pace, entering the market in 2020 is just the right time. At this point in time, Apple may basically achieve full self-sufficiency of core components, and the market structure of smartphone baseband chips may change. By that time, the infrastructure of 5G networks and the hardware and software equipment will be almost ready, and Apple will still be the powerful Apple.

But one thing to note is that mobile phones equipped with 5G chips will surpass 4G phones in terms of both network speed and performance. According to Wired, 5G will bring 10G/s speed to your phone, which is more than 600 times faster than the 4G speed of today's mobile phones and 10 times faster than the home broadband service provided by Google Fiber - fast enough to download a 4K HD movie in 25 seconds, or watch several movies online at the same time.

But if we look back at Apple, Apple's biggest advantage lies in its operating system. The advantage of the iOS system is that it is smooth, easy to use and fast, although the faster speed mentioned here by 5G refers more to transmission speed and download speed. But to some extent, with the optimization of mobile phone software and hardware, in the 5G era, faster and smoother may be a basic experience of mainstream 5G mobile phones, and will not become a core factor affecting the gap between mobile phone products and user choices.

Will this weaken the core advantage of Apple's iOS? I think it probably will.

In the 2G and 3G eras, the limitations of software, hardware and communication network conditions had a certain impact on the mobile phone experience. Slowness, lag and unsmoothness became the common intuitive pain points and feelings of Android phones. However, after the arrival of the 4G era, faster network conditions and the progress of system optimization by mobile phone manufacturers have brought certain improvements to the ease of use and smooth experience of Android phones.

In the 5G era, support for low latency and large capacity at the GB level, faster networks and speeds, higher clarity and VR live content will inevitably provide a smoother and faster experience, which essentially weakens Apple's iOS advantages to a certain extent.

Because after the gap in hardware configuration narrowed, the smoothness and ease of use of iOS is actually Apple's trump card today. However, when the 5G era comes and smoothness and speed become a standard feature of 5G mobile phones, Apple's original advantage barrier may no longer be the core consideration for user experience and phone replacement in the 5G tide. At least, Apple's high-end premium may lose an important pillar.

Under the wave, there are many manufacturers who get up early and arrive late

In the 5G era, perhaps Huawei and Samsung will still be able to compete with Apple. Therefore, the fact that many manufacturers are entering 5G in the absence of technology upgrades and incomplete 5G infrastructure is actually more of a marketing strategy for manufacturers to pursue concepts. The more marginalized manufacturers are, the more anxious they are to make a big move on 5G, grabbing the 5G straw and making a desperate attempt, because suppliers such as Qualcomm and MediaTek can provide a full set of solutions for mobile phone manufacturers.

For example, we saw HTC recently made a bold statement and set a grand goal - in the first half of next year, HTC will compete with the iPhone with mid-to-high-end smartphones, continue to increase market share, and ensure that every phone is profitable. It also said that just as we have followed the evolution of 3G/4G and other communication technologies in the past, we are working hard to prepare for the arrival of 5G.

In every technological revolution in the mobile phone industry, we have found many manufacturers who got up early but arrived late. When the new wave of 5G comes, there will be a group of manufacturers chasing the trend, which will inevitably bring an impetuous and crazy atmosphere. There are not many manufacturers who can abandon impetuousness and stay calm. What needs to be known is that the mobile phone components and antenna area of ​​5G mobile phones will increase, which will pose a great challenge to the industrial design and product innovation of mobile phones. When new technologies are just starting, the immaturity of product innovation, power consumption and other aspects will affect user experience and reputation.

Instead of blindly chasing trends, it is better to calmly plan and accumulate technology first, because 5G is also the infrastructure of the Internet of Things. Combining 5G with the Internet of Things and AI to seek product innovation is the way to break the deadlock. When the technological tide comes, those who are beaten to death on the beach are often those manufacturers who only chase trends and shout concepts but lack control at the core technology level. Because consumers are not stupid, they will mostly not buy into semi-finished products with 5G concepts.

Apple will obviously not miss the 5G era as the outside world says. It will take control of the situation at an appropriate time. Apple's first generation iPhone in 2007 did not even have 3G network, and Apple also adopted the same slow deployment plan for 4G, but it did not prevent Apple from leading in the 4G era.

Technology needs to be packaged, products need creativity, and there is a process from testing to commercial use. The 5G era is a no-man's land. The time difference of being one step behind can optimize and integrate immature innovations. After verifying consumer needs, at the right time, new technologies can be improved, packaged and optimized in a way that consumers can understand and accept, and products with matching concepts and products can be produced, so as to truly control the situation. This is the strategy that Apple has always followed when facing the advent of new trends and new technologies, and it is also worth learning and drawing lessons from for domestic mobile phones.