4G mobile phones will not be eliminated and the network experience will be guaranteed in the future

As 5G phones are about to go on sale in the second half of the year, domestic 4G phone shipments have begun to decline, with a year-on-year decline of 5.2% in June alone. So will 4G phones face the problem of being delisted and operators no longer spending time optimizing them, resulting in a decline in user experience? Are 4G phones really facing elimination?

4G frequency band will not be affected by 5G

If you buy a 2G phone now, you will often see a reminder on the product page about China Unicom's 2G network withdrawal. When choosing a phone, please confirm whether it can be used in your area. At present, some foreign operators have begun to implement the 3G network withdrawal plan in order to vacate the original 3G frequency band for the 5G network under construction.

With the commercialization of 5G this year, will 4G mobile phone users also soon encounter the problem of 4G network withdrawal? The fact is that the 5G network itself is still in a state of being unable to operate without 4G. In the early stage of 5G network, NSA networking is generally chosen, and it will also transition to NSA/SA hybrid networking starting next year, which means that the 4G core network is still needed.

In addition, if users need to use voice services on the 5G network, the current solution is to fall back to the 4G network and use VoLTE, which is one of the reasons why operators have accelerated the VoLTE process, and it also makes it impossible for operators to quickly withdraw 4G from the network. Only when the 5G network coverage performance is fully improved and important 5G services with market demand emerge, operators will consider technical solutions such as VoNR in a timely manner.

Unlike the previous upgrades from 2G to 3G and from 3G to 4G, which required exclusive frequency bands and had to clear the original frequency bands, 5G can now technically share spectrum with 4G. Qualcomm has already launched a new technology called DSS, which allows mobile phones and base stations to have 5G in a frequency band while there are also 4G users in a given location, as long as the base station and mobile phone support the technology. It is reported that the technology will be available in 5G networks in the United States at least next year.

4G networks will coexist with 5G for a long time

At present, almost all domestic and foreign analysts are not optimistic about the construction speed of 5G networks. At least, 5G networks will not be able to achieve full coverage in a short period of time like in the 3G and 4G eras.

According to Deloitte's forecast last year, by 2025, only 49% of mobile users in the United States will use 5G, 45% of mobile users in Japan will use 5G, and 31% in Europe, while in many developing countries, the proportion of 5G users will be less than 10%. It is reported that by 2025, if IoT devices are not included, only 14% of mobile connections in the world will be achieved through 5G. According to Forrester's estimate in the report, by 2025, corporate customers and consumers will see 50% global coverage of 5G.

Last year, researchers from domestic operators predicted that since 5G is difficult to achieve deep coverage, it can only provide focused coverage in the early stage. The coverage speed of 5G will be much slower than 3G and 4G, and it may take 5-10 years to achieve full coverage. In the future, 5G will coexist with 4G networks for a long time, with 5G used in cities and 4G coverage still used in rural areas.

In addition, even from the perspective of IoT device requirements, when 2G and 3G networks are facing withdrawal, many power-sensitive products will prefer 4G rather than 5G. It is not difficult to see from the large-capacity batteries that are currently standard on 5G mobile phones that the current power consumption level of 5G devices is still difficult to match that of 4G.

This also means that 4G and 5G will complement each other in the future network, and at the same time, they will be able to share spectrum using new technologies, which is the best choice for the future network. Ericsson gave the above chart in its official report, from which it is not difficult to find that 4G will exist in the frequency band below 6GHz for a long time, while 5G will use millimeter waves on the one hand, and will also share with 4G in the medium frequency and low frequency, and gradually occupy more frequency bands. Ericsson also pointed out in this report that only by sharing the medium frequency between 4G and 5G, hybrid networking, and the use of millimeter waves, can the three indicators of signal, rate, and latency be fully optimized.

4G experience is guaranteed in the next few years

Obviously, at least before 2025, consumers' 4G mobile phone experience will not be affected. On the other hand, even in the first year of 5G, mobile phone chip manufacturers have chosen not to integrate 5G baseband in flagship SoCs, while also improving the performance of 4G baseband. For example, Qualcomm Snapdragon 855 integrates X24 baseband, communication specifications upgraded to Cat20, downlink peak can reach 2Gbps, and supports 7-carrier aggregation. According to news in the middle of this year, the next-generation flagship Snapdragon 865 will even launch two versions, of which the version without built-in 5G baseband will continue to target the needs of users in areas that have not yet obtained 5G coverage, and its LTE performance is naturally not to be underestimated.

AT&T even packaged Gigabit LTE as "5G E", and called 5G in the Sub 6GHz band "5G" and 5G in the millimeter wave band "5G+". In fact, as a pre-technology for 5G communication networks, Gigabit LTE is also in line with the long-term interests of operators and is very conducive to seamless upgrades to 5G networks in the future. Therefore, for operators, it is not unprofitable to continue to deepen LTE. At the same time, Gigabit LTE also attaches great importance to network latency and stability indicators, and can also provide certain support for related businesses.

In addition, as mentioned above, since the future network still cannot do without 4G network, if we put 4G network aside and do nothing, it is obviously impossible to guarantee the experience of 5G network. In this way, for 4G mobile phone users, if the motivation to change the phone is still insufficient, they will continue to consume according to the current average 18-month replacement cycle. Even if they buy a 4G mobile phone now, there will be no discount in the subsequent experience. Therefore, if consumers have a favorite 4G mobile phone this year, they don’t have to be a "wait and see" party. There is absolutely no problem in buying it according to their own needs.