Apple's new iPhone production this year is 65 million, the lowest in four years

At 1 a.m. Beijing time on September 11, Apple will hold a press conference to launch this year's new mobile phone. What kind of sales situation does Apple expect for this year's new mobile phone? According to the latest news from foreign media, according to brokerages and analysts, Apple maintains a relatively conservative attitude towards the production of new smartphones in 2019, and the total number ordered from assembly foundries is believed to be not much higher than the company's required production quantity in 2018.

According to foreign media reports, ahead of Apple's "By Innovation Only" product launch conference in September, analysts from U.S. brokerage firms Cowen and Rosenblatt Securities are analyzing how many new mobile phones Apple will produce this year.

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According to information obtained by Cowen, Apple expects to produce 65 million new mobile phones in the fourth quarter of 2019 (the peak Christmas shopping season), which is the same as the same period last year and is Apple's "lowest procurement level in four years."

Cowen believes that Apple's new phones will account for 72% of the company's total sales, or 47 million units, in the second half of 2019. Meanwhile, Apple's total sales of new models in the second half of this year are expected to be 79 million units, down 7% from 85 million units last year.

"We believe the year-over-year reduction in production plans is likely an effort to better manage excess inventory heading into 2020, especially given the elevated levels of handset inventory in the channel following the Christmas holidays over the past two years," Cowen said.

Rosenblatt Securities believes that Apple needs to speed up the production of the "iPhone XI R" model in August, giving it more opportunities to increase the scale of cost-effective models, and sales are expected to increase.

However, the company's analysts believe that there is no change in the production of the other two new phones released this year, "iPhone XI and iPhone XI Max", because Apple has been active enough to build up new phone inventory for the North American market by mid-December.

In the past few years, Apple's smartphone business has been in a relatively sluggish situation, and the decline in sales has shown a trend of widening. According to a report by IDC, a US technology market research company, Apple's mobile phone sales fell by 30% in the first quarter of this year, and by another 30% in the second quarter. Apple's decline far exceeded that of other competitors among the world's six largest mobile phone manufacturers.

Previously, foreign media also pointed out that Apple's new mobile phones released in 2019 may face some embarrassment. Recently, foreign media have focused on reporting the information of Apple's new mobile phones to be launched in 2020, such as all built-in 5G chips to support 5G mobile networks, etc., and the possibility of removing the "bangs" to become a true full-screen mobile phone. At the same time, Apple's new mobile phones released this year seem to have been somewhat neglected.

It is also worth pointing out that compared with the past, Apple is also producing more old models of mobile phones in order to win the support of consumers at different price points. For example, in India, Apple commissioned Wistron to produce antique models such as iPhone SE and iPhone 6. This year, Foxconn Group also built a factory in India. According to Indian media reports, Foxconn has already produced iPhone X mobile phones in India with an annual production capacity of one million units, which will be provided to Indian consumers at a relatively affordable price.

With a considerable number of old models of mobile phones being produced and sold at the same time, the market impact and sales of Apple's new mobile phones are difficult to compare with the past.