By trying out dual-version models again, is Apple trying to replicate the glory of the iPhone 6 era?

Recently, the leaked iOS 14 firmware code was decoded by hackers, and a new product was exposed: in addition to the original 4.7-inch iPhone 9 (SE 2), there is also a 5.5-inch iPhone. According to inference, this machine is likely to be the Plus version of the iPhone 9.

If the iPhone 9 Plus does exist, then the iPhone 9 series will have a completely new positioning. It is no longer a product of testing the cheap market as before, but a clarion call for Apple to fully enter the "downstream market".

How to stabilize iPhone sales

Three years ago, iPhone X successfully captured a large market with its major update in four years, but the sales of its successors Xs and 11 Pro were very poor. The market performance of iPhone in the past two years has proved that the "high-price strategy" pioneered by iPhone X is just a "quantitative easing" and is simply unsustainable. It has gradually threatened the foundation of iPhone.

Generally speaking, after the explosion of iPhone 6, the total sales of iPhone, except for iPhone 7 which benefited from the bonus of the replacement of the previous generation, grew against the trend. The remaining models have lost the ability to "make a big splash" in the early stage of sales.

This can also be seen from Apple's publicity. In the past, Apple would announce the sales volume after the first weekend of iPhone sales. iPhone5s and 5C were the first iPhones to be launched in China, and they sold 9 million units in three days. iPhone 6 (not launched in China) sold 10 million units, and 6s (launched in China) sold 13 million units.

But starting with iPhone 7, Apple has not announced first-week sales. Apple said that first-week sales only represent supply, not demand. This is easy to understand. iPhone 5s has fingerprint recognition and was the first to be released in China. iPhone 6 is the first large-screen iPhone, and iPhone 6s was the second to be released in China. But Apple may not know what the selling point of iPhone 7 is.

What is even less optimistic is that, compared with later models, the popularity of iPhone 7 is actually quite high. The iPhone 7 has a variety of colors, an all-black body, dust and water resistance, dual speakers, and dual cameras, which are all quite impressive. In addition, it coincided with the replacement cycle of iPhone 6, and achieved good sales results (the black iPhone 7 is the best-looking iPhone in my opinion).

But after iPhone 7, Apple's direction began to change suddenly. iPhone 8 and 8 Plus were lackluster, iPhone X had a big trick but was too expensive, and then the Xs failed again with its high price and no surprises. Looking at the iPhone launches in recent years, the best performing ones are X and the "bigger than the big one" Xs Max, but they have not reached the level before 7.

Although Cook has repeatedly stated that "profit from a single product is more important than sales" and that "people are willing to pay for innovation" regarding the high-price strategy, the decline in sales will inevitably dampen developers' enthusiasm for software development, causing them to shift their focus to the Android platform, and Apple's ecosystem will also be damaged bit by bit.

But Cook naturally thought of a corresponding solution. iPhone XR and iPhone 11 are both "cost-effective" models developed by Cook for middle-income people, and the market did not disappoint him: as soon as the iPhone XR was launched, it became the best-selling model in 2019, and even put a lot of pressure on the iPhone 11 next year.

There are many reasons for the worldwide success of iPhone XR:

1. Samsung’s flagship sales have always been far inferior to Apple’s, and it has always relied on the sales of low-end phones to win.
2. Due to pressure from the United States, Huawei has been declining in the European high-end market in the past two years, and has almost disappeared in the United States and Japan. The loss of GMS is a fatal blow.
3. The iPhone Xr was launched two months later than usual, directly in time for the Christmas season, releasing consumers' purchasing desire that had been suppressed by the high price of iPhones.
4. In the European, American and Japanese markets, the iPhone is the most user-friendly high-end model (except for Samsung). It’s not because the iPhone XR is very powerful, but because in various situations, the flagship phones of competitors are generally very weak…

For example, Apple occupies 50% of the US and Japanese markets, and its competitors, apart from Samsung, are LG, Lenovo, Sony and other "unevenly developed" competitors. This also indirectly shows that my country's mobile phone market is actually the most competitive and the most average market in the world, without a doubt.

Apple's self-rescue in China

But in the Chinese market, Cook's wish was dashed. As Huawei and other manufacturers began to make efforts and engage in close combat in the high-end market, Apple's original price range of 5,000 to 6,000 yuan was quickly occupied.

The iPhone XR was originally designed to fill the gap, but the price of 6,499 yuan directly scared off a large number of consumers, which eventually led to an avalanche of sales. The high-price strategy in the past two years has caused Apple to sell at least 20 million fewer iPhones in China.

The collapse of the iPhone market in China over the past two years can be attributed to the following factors:

Due to factors such as the trade war, China is facing "consumption downgrade" and its economy is in a downward trend, while the United States has maintained superficial prosperity thanks to the government's active borrowing, and people can afford higher-priced iPhones.

Apple's localization in China is not thorough. China's unique national conditions and local technology giants determine that the Apple ecosystem cannot be developed smoothly. Apple Arcade has encountered version number restrictions. Tencent, Alibaba and NetEase have been deeply involved in the music market for several years. Apple Music has no advantages (the network is not good either).

From the perspective of the product's "price-performance ratio", domestic mobile phones can provide a good experience at a price range of three to four thousand yuan, while there are only a handful of models at this price in the European and American markets (this is why OnePlus and Xiaomi's overseas strategies are so successful). The iPhone does not have a monopoly position.

In order to save the sales of XR, Apple for the first time in history was embarrassed and actively pressed down the price to the channel. The "direct drop of 1,000" we saw on Double Eleven and the "drop below 5,000" on New Year's Day were actually adjusted by Apple, and it could not be explained by a simple oversupply. At the Q1 2019 financial report meeting, Cook also implicitly stated that "for the Chinese market, we have adopted a more appropriate pricing strategy."

Although the price cut was a crude measure that destroyed the iPhone's "legend of no drop in price", the effect was immediate: iPhone sales recovered in the third and fourth quarters, recovering some of the losses. Cook also learned a lesson and said in July that for some markets, the iPhone price would be calculated at a more appropriate exchange rate.

That’s why we can see that compared to XR, the 11 has a dual camera, the price has dropped by $50 in the United States, but in China it has dropped by RMB 1,000.

In addition, Apple's Tmall official store also participated in the Double Eleven for the first time (although it was only 24 interest-free installments), with the transaction volume in one minute exceeding the entire day last year, and in ten minutes it reached seven times the entire day last year. At the same time, the channel price of 11 Pro also dropped by thousands of yuan compared to the official price, and 11 even exceeded 5,000 yuan.

IDC data shows that in the third quarter, Apple's shipments in China increased by 5.6% year-on-year, making it the only leading manufacturer besides Huawei to achieve growth. In the fourth quarter, Apple achieved counter-cyclical growth both in China and the world.

But Apple still has a lot to do to regain lost sales.

iPhone 9, and Plus

In order to change its high-price strategy in recent years and launch a counterattack worldwide, Apple once again chose the "cheap version".

The iPhone 9 is different from the 5C, which is one generation later in hardware specifications but only 800 yuan cheaper, and the SE, which focuses on the niche market and eliminates marginal products. Various news about it indicate that this time, Apple is serious about its determination to enter the low-price market.

Referring to the previous Apple product lines, the current flagships were all priced high. The old flagship was priced at 5,000 yuan, while the version two years ago was priced at around 4,000 yuan, forming a relatively less fragmented but extremely consumer-unfriendly "price defense line."

In fact, it can be seen from the above picture that Apple has been trying to adjust its previous prices. The US price of iPhone 7 and 8 is 499 US dollars, while the domestic price difference is 400 RMB.

According to multiple sources, the iPhone 9 will be priced at $399, starting at 64GB, with A13+3GB RAM, and camera parameters cut. The 128GB version will be priced at $449, surpassing the current iPhone 8 in terms of cost-effectiveness in all aspects.

This means that after facing the siege from other mobile phone manufacturers, Apple has begun to take drastic measures and is focusing its full efforts on attacking the low-end market.

The emergence of the Plus model has made Xiao Lei's speculation about Apple's strategy a reality: the iPhone 9 series is no longer Apple's previous strategy of using scraps to "earn some sentimental cash and leave", but it really wants to attract a large number of Android users (especially Chinese users) to change their phones through cheap models, and to remove the "nail households" from 6s to 8.

Looking at the current mobile phone market, models larger than 5.5 inches are everywhere. If the iPhone 9 only sells 4.7 inches, its sales today may not be as good as the original SE. Because looking at the size of mobile phones in 2018 and 2019, the number of models larger than 5.5-7 inches has exploded, and the number of 5-inch mobile phones that we originally called "giant screens" is already in danger.

Of course, the iPhone 9 Plus is definitely not a full-screen phone, but compared with the 11 and Galaxy S10, the iPhone 9 Plus is not much bigger, not to mention that its price is not that of a flagship model. At least it is definitely acceptable to less picky European and American users.

Moreover, even in China, iPhone 6s users still have a large base. Lei Technology wrote an article at the end of last year titled "It's almost 2020, why are you still using iPhone 6s?", which mentioned that iPhone 6s can still adapt to basic Internet needs and even gaming needs in recent years.

Looking around the world, there are many iPhone diehards. In December last year, iPhone 6-7 still had a 33% market share. If iPhone 8 is included, it has exceeded 50%. As can be seen from the figure, the market share of Plus models is also not small.

According to research institutions, a few years ago, people replaced their iPhones every 2.4 years, but now it has reached 2.9 years. This also indirectly shows that the explosion of iPhone processors in recent years, the upgrades of RAM and storage, as well as the friendly features of iOS 12 for old devices, have invisibly extended the replacement cycle of iPhones.

Moreover, many people cannot accept the Notch Screen and dual cameras of the iPhone 11, so the Plus model is the best way to ensure a seamless upgrade for these old users.

Moreover, users are now clearly divided into two factions: with the price increases of major mobile phone manufacturers, the "light luxury level" has been severely divided into flagship phones, and some users who cannot afford flagship phones have defected to lower price ranges. Apple urgently needs a model like the Redmi K20 to support mid-range sales and expand its user base.

Considering the sales cycle of iPhone, this choice is more reasonable: people who can afford iPhone 9 will not be too demanding on the "additional" features of the phone, as long as the performance is adequate. And A13 is a performance trump card that can crush any model of the same level.

Judging from the financial report, the peak sales of the flagship iPhone are during the Christmas season and the Spring Festival (Q1). Apple's launch of an affordable model in Q2 will not hurt the sales of the flagship phone, but will save the iPhone's off-season and block the launch of cost-effective Android models.

Finally, let Xiao Lei predict the price of iPhone 9 Plus: 64G 499 US dollars, 128G 549 US dollars.

Domestic price: iPhone 9 64G 3299 yuan (maybe even 2999 yuan), iPhone 9 128G 3799 yuan, iPhone 9 Plus 64G 4299 yuan, iPhone 9 Plus 128G 4799 yuan (hopefully 4499 yuan)

If the starting price reaches 2999 yuan, Apple can be said to have completely established its foothold (2999 can run "Post-Honkai Impact 3" smoothly, which is difficult for Snapdragon 865 to do)

Apple's strategic shift

As an Apple fan, Xiao Lei agrees with "paying for innovation", but he also hates Cook's continuous price hikes in recent years. You know, Jobs' favorite word was "affordable". He could reveal shocking features one after another at the press conference, but he would use just the right price to make consumers feel that they were not losing out. The iPad's "499 US dollars" shocked countless users.

This year, Apple's price reduction strategy is not only to regain the market in China, but also to face the crisis in the European and American markets. With the outbreak of the epidemic in Europe and the United States, Apple's sales focus this year has returned to China. According to current information, the epidemic in Europe and the United States is unlikely to end until summer, which is a big blow to Apple.

But whether voluntarily or forced, Apple has gradually reacted in the past two years and started to break out of Cook's early "luxury" circle: removing the butterfly keyboard of the Macbook, launching the modular Mac Pro, redesigning the MacBook Air and mini, the more "pragmatic" iPhone 11, and future cooperation with Alipay. Apple, which has always been stubborn, has rarely begun to reflect on its foundations and actively improve them.

I believe that unless there are major changes, die-hard Apple fans will continue to use Apple products, but as a consumer, Xiao Lei also hopes that Apple can provide more high-quality and low-cost options.

After all, no one stipulates that innovation and cost-effectiveness are in conflict.