Are people changing their phones more often? Consumers complain: Lack of innovation, high prices, no plans to change in the next two to three years

Why are consumers replacing their mobile phones at a slower pace? A reporter from Economic Herald conducted an investigation on this issue.

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“I won’t consider changing it within two to three years”

"The phone I'm using now is Honor 20, which has 128GB of memory. It can play games and watch videos without any lag. I can say that I can use it for another two to three years without any problems." Xiao Zhou, a student at the School of Business of Jinan University, said in an interview with the Economic Herald on May 18 that he would not consider changing his phone within two to three years if there are no breakthrough changes in charging or taking pictures of the newly launched mobile phones.

Wan Chunran, who works for a new media company, said that as mobile phones are becoming more and more closely integrated with personal life, the inconvenience of information transfer caused by changing phones is also one of the factors affecting his decision to upgrade his phone.

"Nowadays, we cannot live without mobile phones in our daily life. Changing mobile phones is like moving house. All kinds of apps, from social applications to payment applications to work applications and even children's school applications, have to be reinstalled, and all kinds of information have to be moved. It's too troublesome." Wan Chunran told the Economic Herald reporter that with the development of smartphones, most brands of mobile phones are very similar in appearance and functions. Unless the phone is stuck and can't be turned, people will not change their phones if the functions of the phone are sufficient.

In addition, the high prices of 5G mobile phones have also led to a slower frequency of consumers replacing their phones.

"In 2019, Xiaomi's flagship phone was around 2,000 yuan, but now the price of its flagship phone is as high as 6,000 yuan. All 5G phones sold on the market with a memory of 128G or more are around 3,000 yuan. Now, the prices of 5G phones are generally high, which is the main reason that affects my decision to change my phone." Lin Xiaomei, a salesperson at a large supermarket on Yingxiongshan Road, told the Economic Herald reporter that she hopes that all brands will launch 5G phones priced at around 1,000 yuan as soon as possible, so that the cost of replacement will be relatively lower.

The feelings of mobile phone dealers also confirm that consumers are changing their mobile phones more slowly.

Zhang Teng, general manager of Jinan Huateng Communications, told the Economic Herald reporter that mobile phone shipments have been fluctuating since last year.

"Compared with previous years, the growth of mobile phone sales is slowing down. Currently, the daily sales volume is basically around a dozen units." Zhang Teng analyzed that the development of smartphones has reached a point where their performance is very smooth, and the need to change mobile phones due to performance or lag issues has been greatly reduced.

Moreover, the mobile phone market is currently at a critical time of 4G/5G handover. Some consumers are waiting and watching, hoping to wait until the package prices are lower before replacing their phones in one go.

In addition, due to the shortage of chips, most mobile phone manufacturers have switched to focusing on flagship and high-end phones, which have attracted a large number of consumers due to the high prices of 3,000 to 4,000 yuan. In particular, the number of low-end phones priced at 1,000 yuan has been decreasing, and many consumers are unable to replace them because they are beyond their budget.

"Affected by the epidemic since 2020, mobile phone sales have dropped significantly. Since then, mobile phone sales have never returned to the growth rate before 2019. Before 2019, it was normal to sell 20 to 30 units a day. Since last year, daily sales have basically stabilized at around 10 to 20 units." Liu Pengpeng, manager of a mobile phone store on Yingxiongshan Road, also said in an interview with the Economic Herald reporter.

Liu Pengpeng told the Economic Herald that smartphones are mainly used by some middle-aged and elderly people for making calls, using WeChat and watching videos. Many functions are not used, and old phones can handle them completely. As a result, these consumers do not frequently replace their phones. Their average replacement frequency is about four to five years. "Just like high-speed charging, for the elderly, there is no difference between fully charging in one hour and fully charging in three hours."

Lack of innovation and high prices

In fact, according to the "2020 Second 5G Terminal Consumption Trend Report" by China Mobile Terminal Laboratory, mobile phone damage and slowdowns have become the main reasons for consumers to change their phones. Insufficient mobile phone storage space, insufficient battery life or poor battery life are also important factors. The continuous improvement of mobile phone hardware configuration and software experience, and the overall performance of mobile phones is significantly better than before, are the main reasons for the extension of consumers' replacement cycle.

Liu Pengpeng told the Economic Herald reporter that a large number of 5G mobile phones were launched in the first half of last year, and coupled with the promotion of 5G functions by mobile phone manufacturers, operators and the media, many consumers switched to 5G mobile phones. However, since the construction of 5G networks has not been completed, there is not much experience upgrade between 5G mobile phones and 4G mobile phones, so consumers' demand for 5G mobile phones has decreased, which has also led to an overall decrease in shipments.

"The extension of the mobile phone replacement cycle is mainly because the quality and quality of smartphones have been improved to a certain extent in recent years, and smartphones have become sturdy and durable," said Liang Zhenpeng, a senior expert in the communications industry.

At the same time, the CPU speed of smartphones has also been significantly improved. For mainstream smartphone models, they can maintain normal operation for at least two years without slowing down. Therefore, under the influence of quality and speed, users can objectively use their phones for a longer time.

In addition, the product form and screen of smartphones tend to be stable, which also makes users not replace them too frequently. And as consumer psychology matures, users no longer blindly pursue novel appearances and mobile phone products, as long as the mobile phone is enough for their daily use. Therefore, in this case, the replacement cycle of mobile phones will indeed be extended.

"If the mobile phone industry wants to continuously expand the smartphone market, it still needs to have significant breakthroughs in some new technology fields." Liang Zhenpeng said that the widespread use of OLED flexible screens, or the widespread use of foldable screen phones, the popularization of 5G phones, and other new technology and product fields, if there are some relatively large breakthrough improvements, it will still enable many consumers to speed up or replace their smartphones in advance.

A report released by the China Academy of Information and Communications Technology also shows that rising mobile phone prices and the lack of selling points of newly launched models have also resulted in consumers having insufficient motivation to replace their phones.

"Mid- and low-end smartphones are the products that sell better in the domestic market. Since the beginning of this year, major mobile phone manufacturers have released relatively few mid- and low-end models. The demand in the domestic mobile phone market will continue to slow in the second half of the year, and it is estimated that shipments will hardly see high growth." Zhang Teng told the Economic Herald reporter.

Liang Zhenpeng said that the domestic smartphone market has changed from incremental competition to comprehensive stock competition. How to stimulate users' desire to change phones will become the key to the future development of mobile phone manufacturers.