Is the blind box marketing routine on hold?

The blind box circle doesn’t seem to be peaceful recently.

First, on January 12, the China Consumers Association published an article on its official website criticizing KFC and Pop Mart for using "blind box" marketing to induce excessive food consumption. As soon as the news came out, it aroused widespread attention and heated discussion in society.

Later on January 14, the Shanghai Municipal Market Supervision Bureau issued the "Shanghai Blind Box Business Compliance Guidelines", recommending that the price of a single blind box should not exceed 200 yuan, and that operators should not sell blind boxes to minors under the age of 8.

Some public opinion believes that Shanghai’s new regulations on blind box consumption supervision will provide reference norms and development guidelines for the business activities of the blind box market, and clearly draw the red line for blind box operations - and may even trigger reference and imitation by other cities.

So, as regulators pay more and more attention to the blind box consumption field, what impact will it have on the blind box market itself? Can this kind of "hit-the-luck" marketing strategy be more "regular"?

Blind box speculators panic first

"I just want to sell the blind box dolls I have as soon as possible. Time is too tight."

"Jingjing", who is often active on major second-hand e-commerce platforms and social platforms, is a full-time speculator of blind box dolls.

Jingjing revealed that she has been active in the blind box doll trading circle for nearly two years. However, the recent issuance of two management measures by the regulatory authorities regarding the blind box marketing market made her feel anxious. She and some speculators she knew began to sort out their inventory and quickly "clear out" so-called collectibles online.

"There has been a lot of negative news in the blind box circle before, but the situation is different from this time's supervision." As a veteran blind box speculator, Jingjing said that negative news in the industry in the past actually had no impact on the prices of some hidden blind boxes and limited edition dolls.

However, since the China Consumers Association criticized KFC and Pop Mart's blind box marketing incident, the prices of some blind box dolls on second-hand e-commerce platforms have begun to decline, and the prices of hidden models have continued to fall. "Everyone (referring to speculators) is afraid that blind boxes will be targeted by regulatory authorities like e-cigarettes."

She also said that compared with sporadic negative news in the industry, the dynamics of regulatory agencies are more worrying to her. Once the relevant departments take action to regulate the blind box consumer market, it may mean that the bubble of the blind box industry itself will be burst, and the so-called "investment myth" will also be shattered.

Recently, blind box products seem to have become a hot potato of "the sooner you sell, the less you lose", and many speculators have cut prices to sell them. "After taking inventory, fortunately, there are only a hundred or so ordinary dolls and a dozen hidden models left at home. Now they are all sold online."

In Jingjing's second-hand shop, Dongdong Note saw the price of Pop Mart Dimoo Night Elf, and the small hidden version was 260 yuan. According to her, long before the China Consumers Association named the blind box, the price of this blind box was generally 400 yuan.

A few extremely "confident" sellers even asked for prices as high as 888 yuan and declared that they would not negotiate prices. It can be seen that hidden blind boxes are not worried about sales, and the bubble in the industry is very huge, which is also quite incredible. "But now, everyone is lowering prices to sell them quickly."

Searching for the same blind box on mainstream second-hand e-commerce platforms, Dongdong Notes found a merchant from Chongqing whose price was two yuan lower than Jingjing's. In addition to the hidden version of the dolls, the price of its ordinary blind boxes has also set a new low price record.

"Generally (speculators) use the original price to draw the blind box, and the ordinary ones will usually be sold at a price lower than the original price." Jingjing explained that if you draw an ordinary version and sell it at a low price, you will lose a little, but once you draw the so-called hidden version, you will immediately recover the loss and make a small profit.

Generally speaking, the price of ordinary blind boxes drawn by speculators on second-hand e-commerce platforms is mostly between 25 and 39 yuan, and a few popular blind box series can be sold for 45 yuan or even higher. "But now the cheapest ones can be bought for a few yuan, and mainstream styles can be traded for more than ten yuan."

It can be seen from this that the regulatory actions of relevant departments against the chaos in blind box consumption have indeed made some blind box speculators and speculators panic, and they are rushing to reduce prices and sell off their inventory.

Regulators "remind" businesses to be more restrained

“We dare not expand, for fear that the regulatory direction may change at any time.”

Hu Ying (pseudonym), who calls himself a "serial entrepreneur", has been optimistic about the blind box trend and started to increase investment two years ago. Because he couldn't wait for the mainstream blind box brands to open up for franchising, and was afraid that the business opportunity would slip away, he had no choice but to try to join a small brand and get involved in the blind box chain sales field.

He told Dongdong Notes that the threshold for starting a blind box business is not high. He only invested less than 200,000 yuan and got ten vending terminals from the official franchise brand. Currently, they are deployed in some major business districts in Shenzhen. He admitted that the cost of rental is actually higher than the franchise fee.

"Especially venues near restaurants and cinemas, the rent is expensive, the flow of people is large, and the demand is high." Hu Ying admitted that although the flow of people in restaurants and cinemas has decreased in the past two years due to the epidemic, thanks to the popularity of blind boxes, consumer demand should not be underestimated.

It took him only one year to recover the initial investment in joining the company and equipment purchases. At the beginning of last year, it began to run into the profit period. It is not difficult to see the huge profit margin of blind box dolls. "Small-brand blind boxes are sold at a lower price, and the gross profit can be about four or five times. Can you imagine how high the profit of mainstream brands is?"

But in the face of such a "profitable" business, why did Hu Yingxin retreat from his expansion plan?

Hu Ying explained that the reason for the recent suspension of expansion was due to changes in supervision and policies. Although blind boxes have low investment and high profits, it often takes a year or two to recover the investment costs. If the relevant departments tighten their supervision on blind box consumption, it will affect their own blind box business and extend the period for franchisees to make back their investment.

In his opinion, if the policy completely defines blind box consumption as "illegal", franchisees may lose everything. Therefore, he decided to hold off on expansion in view of the potential risks.

Another person who is also "cautious" in the blind box business is Aunt Zhu, who runs a stationery store near a primary school in the center of Shantou City.

During the conversation, Aunt Zhu revealed that many convenience stores and stationery stores near the school are currently selling blind boxes. "Compared to mainstream brands, the blind boxes sold near the school are mostly counterfeit and very cheap."

She told Dongdong Notes that the counterfeit blind boxes sold in stationery stores only cost a few dollars, which students can afford, and the packaging usually contains toys, stationery and other items.

Because it caters to students' curiosity, the sales of blind boxes in stationery stores have been considerable in the past year. "At the beginning of the school year, a tray of blind boxes can be sold out in one day. A tray has 60 small boxes, and the profit is higher than that of stationery. Some students even save money every day just to buy blind boxes frequently."

However, since the Shanghai Market Supervision Bureau issued compliance guidelines for blind box business activities, Aunt Zhu has also begun to pay attention to relevant policies and supervision. Although only Shanghai has included blind boxes in the scope of supervision at present, she believes that there is no guarantee that the relevant policies will not be followed in other places.

"Now the amount of goods (blind boxes) I buy has also decreased. The main fear is that the supervision will be tightened and I will be stuck with a lot of money." In addition to strictly controlling the number of goods purchased, Aunt Zhu also pays close attention to changes in relevant policies and public opinion. "Once there is news of supervision in Guangdong, it will not be too late for me to restrain myself. After all, blind boxes are still very profitable now."

Perhaps, the regulatory authorities’ continuous “naming and condemning” of blind box consumption has also reminded some blind box merchants that they should be more restrained in expanding their territory and choosing their business objects.

In the field of commercial marketing, the creative marketing method of blind boxes is also being "questioned".

“Everything is a blind box” is no longer popular?

"In recent days, several cooperating companies have asked to replace their marketing plans."

Zhang Qi (pseudonym) is an account manager at a large marketing agency in Guangzhou. He told Dongdong Notes that due to the popularity of the blind box concept, the use of blind boxes for commercial marketing in the past year or so has been generally welcomed by companies and businesses.

In the past year alone, his marketing agency has planned nearly thirty blind box marketing activities for different companies. The results were all very outstanding and the agency has been praised by the partner companies.

It can be said that since the concept of blind boxes became popular, there has been a bizarre phenomenon in the marketing circle that "everything can be a blind box", and the major brand marketing agencies have played an "indispensable role" in promoting this.

For some time, blind box marketing has even become the wealth code for companies and marketing agencies.

It can be said that everything from ordinary daily necessities to cars and real estate can be put into blind boxes and marketed in various ways. This craze has caused the blind box marketing to change, consumers’ reviews are mixed, and chaos in the industry has occurred frequently.

"As long as the other party's products are suitable, we will recommend companies to do blind box marketing, which is simple and effective." However, since January 12 this year, when the China Consumers Association criticized KFC's "blind box marketing" by name, several cooperating customers have asked to modify the original blind box marketing plan, or try not to plan blind box-related marketing activities at this critical juncture.

Zhang Qi said that in the past week, the executive team has been busy coordinating and planning new marketing plans for customers. "As for new customers, even if there were two who wanted to do blind box marketing, the planners persuaded them not to do so."

Coincidentally, Arnold, the head of a food factory in Chaozhou, recently stopped the blind box marketing activities that the factory was carrying out. According to Arnold, due to the year-end clearance, a lot of inventory has to be sold off. As a young and up-to-date "second-generation factory owner", he decided to use blind boxes to clear out inventory in early December.

"The idea at the time was to randomly pack different candies, snacks, and biscuits into Spring Festival snack blind boxes, then do a live broadcast online and start promotions in the online store." In the self-operated e-commerce store, this snack blind box is priced at 59 yuan and weighs 1.25 kilograms. It seems quite cost-effective. In just one month, sales have reached nearly 2,000 pieces.

However, because KFC was recently named and it also belongs to the food industry, he decided to put the "blind box creativity" on hold in order to avoid risks. This week, he removed the Spring Festival snack blind boxes from the shelves. "In addition to regulatory measures, I found that some consumers are also beginning to dislike blind box marketing."

Some analysts pointed out that the era of "everything is a blind box" may end the current situation of blindly rushing forward because of the recent intervention of relevant departments and their involvement in the supervision of blind box consumption. It has to be said that blind boxes are a marketing method that directly hits consumers' psychology, but it is not a healthy marketing method.

Once companies start to focus on the "potential consumer psychology of blind boxes", the marketing risks of "consumer addiction" are bound to cause market chaos. The blind boxes and marketing models that have been popular for a long time should not become a disguise for the "consumer gambler mentality." Industry supervision may come in a swift and vigorous manner.

Author: Dongdong Notes

Source: Dongdong Notes