How to create a hit product?

A good product can increase the probability of being a best-seller, but it cannot determine whether it will be a best-seller, nor is it a necessary condition for it to be a best-seller.

(Note: The term "product" mentioned in this article refers to products in a broad sense, that is, a commodity, an APP, a book, an article, a video, or even a poster can be regarded as a "product".)

Consider a question:

How to create a hit product ?

Everyone is curious about the answer.

However, the vast majority of answers focus on the product itself, such as:

• How to design a hit product?
• What kind of products can be popular?
• What kind of products fail?
• Why is a product doomed to die?

In particular, when a product becomes popular, there will be a lot of analysis like this:

It has a...wonderful design, so its success is inevitable.

So here comes the question:

Is it true that a product becomes an instant hit because of its good design?

Today, I will talk to you about this topic.

1. The popular products are not really that outstanding

What is the best-selling novel in the world?

Harry Potter is definitely one of them.

It is a fantasy novel written by British writer J.K. Rowling, with a total of 7 volumes. It has been translated into 73 languages, and the total sales of all versions have exceeded 450 million copies (as of 2015), making it a global hit.

A book that is this popular must be better written, more interesting, and more attractive than other novels, right?

A newspaper commented:

“Harry Potter has everything it takes to become a classic.”

However, what is very strange is that this novel, which was praised as "having all the elements" , was actually rejected by the publishing house when J.K. Rowling first submitted it.

But this is also possible. Let's just assume that the company just made a mistake in their judgment.

But what is even more difficult to understand is why twelve publishing houses in a row rejected "Harry Potter"?

Until finally, "Harry Potter" was reluctantly agreed to be published by one company.

Moreover, it was not because the publisher took a fancy to the book, but because his daughter read the manuscript and kept pestering her father, saying that the book was interesting, that’s how he got the publishing contract.

If ordinary people cannot tell whether a product is good or not, it may be understandable.

Why can't professional publishers who have been working in the publishing industry for many years distinguish between good and bad?

And it's not just J.K. Rowling who has had this experience.

• "Gone with the Wind" was rejected by publishers 38 times before it was officially published.
• Elvis was once told that he should go back to being a truck driver.
• Walt Disney was fired early in his career for his "lack of imagination and originality."

It can be seen that a product that becomes popular does not necessarily have an obvious "best-selling gene".

They may look no different from other products, or even be inferior.

2. Best-sellers may just be luck

Isn’t it true that a product is a best-seller just because it has the “best-selling gene”?

That's true.

Some people may suspect that "Harry Potter" and "Gone with the Wind" are just exceptions, and perhaps they just happened to encounter short-sighted publishers.

If sales really depend on the product itself, then imagine:

Let a group of products with little difference be sold on the same platform. Do you think the final sales volume will be similar, or will there be a clear gap?

In order to find the truth, someone conducted an experiment.

Salganik and his colleagues designed a website that featured 48 unknown songs.

They are either unknown works by unknown singers, or works by singers who have not yet debuted. In short, these are songs that are unlikely to have been heard.

People can listen to any song on the website and download any song they like for free.

The trial enrolled more than 14,000 participants, mostly adolescents in the United States. They were randomly assigned to either an experimental group or a control group.

In the experimental group, there are some special designs:

• Participants can see the current download count for each song. The number of downloads will be displayed after the song name.
• Song rankings change over time depending on the number of downloads. The one with the most downloads is ranked first, and so on. Every time someone downloads a song, the download count and chart ranking will be automatically updated.
• Divided into 8 groups that do not interfere with each other. Each group has the same playlist, but their download volumes do not affect each other. That is, each of the eight groups has its own download rankings and will not be affected by other groups.
• Participants were randomly assigned. Because it is random, the style of songs that each group likes is similar. There is no such thing as one group preferring rap and another group preferring rock.

If some songs are more popular than others, then the charts for all experimental groups should be similar. For example, the most popular song in this group can at least make it to the top of the charts in other groups.

But in fact this is not the case, the rankings of different groups vary greatly.

Some songs ranked first in one group, but became the least popular song in another group - ranking 40th out of 48 songs.

Why is this?

Because people's choices will be influenced by others.

At the beginning, everyone faced similar choices, but suddenly, some songs had downloads, so people began to tend to follow other people's choices and also listen to and download songs that others liked.

Gradually, the download gap between songs became larger and larger.

Popular songs become more popular, and less popular songs further lose attention.

This is the "bandwagon effect": we tend to refer to and follow the choices of others.

Therefore, the initial rankings of each group were not very different, but as the progress progressed, the gap became more and more obvious, and eventually 8 completely different download rankings were formed.

This experiment found the truth for us:

Even products with little difference can produce obvious sales gap. Furthermore, a product that is popular with one group of people may not necessarily be popular with another group of people.

The best-seller may just be luck.

3. Luck also has a science

Is luck really random and uncontrollable?

There is a saying that goes: Luck is also part of strength.

However, this sentence is often used as a joke or self-mockery.

In fact, there is a science to luck.

From the experiment conducted by Salganik, we can find at least one trick: if you can artificially control the download list in the initial period, you can influence subsequent subjects to follow your list.

This is how you use the "herd effect" to create good luck.

A small action can have a surprising effect.

In life, we may also encounter small tricks done secretly by businesses - such as brushing orders, brushing reviews, and hiring people to queue up.

Apart from the "herd effect", are there other scientific methods to create luck?

There are many, many.

for example:

Two new products are similar in every way, and the user chooses to buy this one instead of the other.

Excuse me, did he really just pick it up casually?

If you ask him immediately why he bought this and not the other one?

He will most likely tell you:

“They’re all pretty much the same, so I just picked one.”

This seemingly luckier product is likely to have done the following things, for example:

• Placed on the most convenient shelf level.
• The price is 19.9 yuan, not 20 yuan.
• A slightly larger outer packaging was designed, although the net weight of the product is actually the same.
• Let users accidentally see its advertisement before entering the supermarket.
• …

Whether a product can become a hit seems to depend on the quality of the product itself, but this process actually hides the "science of luck" that many people cannot see.

Therefore, we can only say: a good product can increase the probability of selling well, but it cannot determine whether it will sell well, nor is it a necessary condition for selling well .

Even ordinary products, even some products that seem low-end, may become popular overnight.

4. Conclusion

Talent belongs to a few, but routines belong to everyone. ——Kangxi's Master

Finally, let’s summarize all the content of today:

(1) Is it true that a product becomes an instant hit because of its good design?

That is not the case.

A product that becomes popular does not necessarily have an obvious “best-selling gene”. They may look no different from other products, or even be inferior.

(2) For a product to become a hit, is there any inevitable reason for its success?

Not necessarily. Maybe it was just luck.

A product that sells well in one place may not necessarily be popular in another place, and may even be neglected.

Therefore, giving a hit product a second try does not necessarily mean that its success can be replicated.

(3) Is luck really random and uncontrollable?

I can say this very seriously: "Luck is really a part of strength."

Because so-called luck actually has a scientific basis.

The user's seemingly random choices can be predicted or influence his choices to a certain extent.

There are many research results on the scientific principles behind this in the field of behavioral science.

Source: Kangxi Shiye