This boring conference makes people worry about Apple's future

Before the event, there was a rumor that Cook would announce his retirement and be replaced by Angela Ahrendts, Apple's senior vice president of retail and online business.

After the press conference, the rumors naturally did not come true, but the idea that Ahrendts would take over as CEO was not absurd. Earlier this year, Cook mentioned at the shareholders' meeting that he was looking for a successor, and Ahrendts was the top candidate in many people's minds. She was previously the CEO of Burberry, and after coming to Apple, she reshaped the Apple Store.

Before Ahrendts took over, the main function of Apple Store was to browse new products and repair old machines. Under the impact of online channels, retail stores were not doing well. Ahrendts gradually transformed them into public spaces and even said in a speech that Apple Store can be regarded as a "city square."

Ahrendts's logic for transforming the Apple Store is that she saw similarities between Apple and Burberry, both of which represent a lifestyle. Moreover, Apple wants to influence people's lives in a more proactive way.

At the beginning of the press conference, Cook said that now there are 2 billion people own iOS devices, and Apple has influenced their lives, consumption, and entertainment. When the Apple Watch launch began, the host introduced the three lifestyle-related functions of "connection, exercise, and health."

When words like fitness, health, yoga, and basketball appear more and more frequently at press conferences, it’s easy to wonder whether you’re walking into a Nike press conference or a press conference where Apple, a company that has dominated the technology consumer market for the past decade, is introducing its latest innovative achievements.

It is indeed difficult for us to use the word "innovative" to describe Apple today.

Compared with iPhone X, the upgrade of iPhone Xs is just the upgrade from A11 to A12, the battery life is increased by half an hour, the waterproofness is increased from one meter to two meters, and the neural network engine is changed to a new generation neural network engine. The upgrade of iPhone Xs max is just to increase the screen size on these basis. On the contrary, the "dual SIM dual standby" which has nothing to do with technological innovation may become the biggest selling point.

This is the most boring iPhone launch conference since its launch. The iPhone in 2007 was a revolution, and the release rhythm has since become a major upgrade every two years and a minor upgrade every year. But even the minor upgrades always bring exciting new features, such as Siri, fingerprint recognition, 3D touch, etc. This year, apart from routine upgrades, there are no major updates.

When asked about the Apple Car during an earnings call, Cook said: "Remember when you were a kid? Christmas was exciting because you didn't know what was waiting for you downstairs. Well, Christmas lasts a while."

In the past, Apple’s press conference was held on Christmas, and we always looked forward to the surprise brought by “one more thing”. But now, Santa Claus will no longer come, and it is difficult for the new iPhone to bring the same surprise as a Christmas gift.

Even the gifts that were originally agreed upon were retracted by Apple. The iPad Pro and Mac mini were not unveiled, and there was no sign of the new generation of AirPods. The AirPower released last year was also delayed this year - the press conference did not even mention "wireless charging" to avoid this embarrassing issue.

[[243748]]

There is something wrong with Apple's product planning.

In the past ten years, Apple has been able to give surprising Christmas gifts every year. This requires them to have insight into products and technologies and to plan and advance them in advance. This is not something that can be completed in one year. The iPhone X project was launched four years ago. But this year, there are no new features, and even last year's new technology did not arrive as scheduled. This may not be due to business considerations, but rather to the bottleneck of mobile phone technology.

It is very likely that future iPhone conferences will continue to be boring. Apple, like Intel, has started to squeeze out the toothpaste and cut off the 3D touch solution that is very mature on the iPhone Xr. Moreover, before the problem of the under-screen sensor is solved, Apple may continue with the current design, and the so-called "major upgrade every two years" rhythm will no longer exist. Even if this problem is solved, it is easy to imagine that the end of the mobile phone is nothing more than a screen, and it can no longer change the way people interact.

The bottleneck of mobile phone technology and market has come at the same time. Mobile phones, like computers, have become products that are still important but outdated and no longer cool. Some people predict that one day, the iPhone will be like the MacBook, and will only be quietly updated on the official website.

But before that, Apple needs to find the next iPhone.

Wall Street predicts that Apple's future growth will come from content and wearable devices, which is Apple's fastest growing segment. The Apple Watch 4 released today also shows Apple's emphasis on it.

The speed of Apple Watch iterations reminds us of the early iPhone, and Apple Watch 4 may become a milestone like iPhone 4. It has a new design, a larger screen that can display more information, stronger performance, and continues to support mobile networks. It can already be used independently from the iPhone in a short period of time, and it is conceivable that its independence will be even stronger in the future.

At the same time, Apple Watch 4 is not only an extension of the iPhone, it also has more independent functions. It can measure heart rate more accurately and quickly, detect more types of exercise, measure electrocardiogram, and issue alarms in time.

When Apple Watch 4 was released, the host said that many people took the initiative to exercise in order to close the circle. The iPhone and mobile Internet have completely changed people's lives, but mobile phones cannot be everywhere after all. Compared with mobile phones, watches are more personal and can affect people in more details.

In his first column, Dr. Mo said, “Technology, including computers embedded in everything, will fade into the background. In some cases, it may disappear completely, activated by voice commands, people walking into the room, changes in blood chemistry, changes in temperature, and the movement of objects. Or perhaps, you can activate it with your mind.”

No one doubts that this future will come, but no one can accurately predict when it will come. Before the next smartphone-like revolution comes, Apple can only show its more commercial side and do everything it can to maintain revenue, profits, and stock prices.

Transforming from a technology company to a consumer company is undoubtedly a good choice. Bernstein suggested: "Like many consumer brands, Apple has high brand loyalty, high return on capital, and relatively stable cash flow." If Apple transforms into a consumer products company, it will no longer have to worry about innovation.

As mentioned before, the iPhone has become a symbol of the middle-class lifestyle, like an admission ticket to a high-end club. After entering, you may buy more accessories and services, which may be Apple Watch, AirPods and AirPower (if they can be produced), applications in the Appstore, or the audio and video services that Apple is working hard to promote.

From now on, Apple certainly does not want to give up the iPhone. It has even released more iPhones, even if these products will conflict with each other and even if the iPhone will soon go to sunset along with the entire industry. It will not want to give up businesses such as cars and watches, which may be the future of the company. It will also continue to promote the Internet and content services. They recently bought several movies and continue to expand in this area, which may bring higher profits and revenues. According to the Wall Street Journal, the larger the mobile phone screen, the more likely people are to buy apps and use their phones for longer.

Becoming a consumer company, like Burberry, Nike and Starbucks, may be Apple's transitional route before the future arrives. However, when Jobs returned to Apple, the first thing he did was to cut off most of the production lines and refocus the company, thus creating today's empire. Now, is Apple going to become a large, comprehensive and boring company again?

"Seriously, Yahoo can do it all. You have great people and tons of money. But I can't figure out whether you want to be a content company or a technology company. Pick just one, and I know what I'll pick."

In 2007, Steve Jobs gave a speech at Yahoo. After that, Yahoo still couldn't get rid of the crisis. Apple is still prosperous now and has more choices, but Nokia around 2010 was also prosperous and had many choices.