The losers pour cold water on mini programs. Why do we say that mini programs still have great potential in 2019?

Last year, the BAT giants had high hopes for mini programs, and gave them strong support in terms of entrance, traffic, resources, etc. Under the strong promotion of the giants, various platforms did attract many developers, but some developers did not get the desired returns on mini programs after entering the market, and even a group of developers decided to withdraw from the mini program battlefield.

A recent article titled "2018, Developers Fleeing Mini Programs" has caused heated discussions. In the article, some developers publicly stated that they have completely given up on the mini program track. Some investors have lost interest in mini program projects. They believe that they see no hope in the mini program field and have decided to put the brakes on in time to avoid greater losses. Why is there a theory of the decline of mini programs? From what perspective should we view the future of mini programs in 2019? Should developers continue to invest or rationally withdraw from mini programs?

The mini programs that are favored by giants are gaining more and more popularity. It is normal to have doubts and negative voices about mini programs.

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Although there are many hot spots in the Internet world in 2018, the mini program is a representative of the best. According to Aladdin's data, in 2018, the entire capital market was in a state of contraction, but the cumulative amount of financing for mini programs exceeded 8 billion, which is 8 times that of 2017. For a young mini program, it is not easy for it to reach such a level of financing in one year. Of course, the mini program is getting more and more popular, and it is inseparable from the strong promotion of giants, especially the heavy investment of BAT.

On January 9, WeChat held a mini program open class, where mini programs and mini games became the focus of the class. This time, WeChat not only summarized the achievements of mini programs in the past year, but more importantly, it also made a lot of changes for the future development of mini programs. Whether it is the entrance, search method, tool upgrade, as well as monetization methods and operational support, there have been great changes and upgrades, which shows WeChat's sincerity and determination in mini programs.

In addition to WeChat mini-programs, Baidu and Alibaba are also making continuous moves on mini-programs. On December 20, Baidu announced the establishment of the Smart Mini-Program Open Source Alliance, with the first batch of strategic partners including 12 companies such as iQiyi, Kuaishou, WiFi***Key, and 58.com. This means that Baidu's smart mini-programs will go beyond Baidu's own ecosystem, and will be supported on the apps of alliance partners in the future, becoming an important entrance to Baidu's smart mini-programs. On January 7, Alipay announced the addition of a fixed entrance to the mini-program collection on the homepage.

It is precisely because of the attention of giants that mini programs have the hope of becoming one of the hottest outlets in 2019. Although mini programs seem to become a new trend in the post-mobile Internet era, some industry insiders are not optimistic about mini programs and even believe that it is difficult for mini programs to generate huge commercial value. A group of entrepreneurial teams are even determined to withdraw from the mini program track.

Why are some people not optimistic about mini programs? Xiaoqianshuo summarizes the following reasons. First, the user retention is low due to the use-and-leave feature, making it difficult to generate stickiness; second, the product neither obtains traffic nor generates economic value; third, they have certain concerns about the traffic actively provided by the giants. After all, mini programs are dependent on others. Once the giants show restraint in traffic in the future, mini programs will become very passive.

The daily active users of HeiKa Camera, which was very popular in 2018, have gradually dropped from a peak of more than 10 million at the beginning of the year to less than 1 million now. Its head Jiang Wenyi also admitted that although the team is still insisting on mini programs, more energy will be focused on a new product to be launched next year. According to Jiemian, Li Yuanfeng, managing director of Falcon Venture Capital, told the media: I am not very willing to talk about mini programs now. More than one investor told Jiemian News that since the third quarter of this year, they have suspended investment in new projects in the mini program field.

It is normal that the much-praised mini-programs are now facing some doubts and skepticism. However, developers who fail in this field should still put the blame on their own products. Mini-program platforms represented by WeChat, Baidu, Alipay, Toutiao, 360, Weibo, etc. are all open to all developers. It is normal for some developers to fail and some to succeed in the broad developer team. This situation will occur in any industry.

It is not objective to deny the future potential of mini programs based on the failure of some entrepreneurs. Of course, we still need to see that the failure of these entrepreneurs shows that there are still areas for mini programs to improve. Under the general trend, the future potential of mini programs is still huge. Xiaoqianshuo believes that it is more credible to use the most objective data to illustrate.

Mini Programs can still withstand the slander of "rumors". With the support of various forces, Mini Programs are expected to usher in an explosion

Although 2018 cannot be called the year of mini programs, its development last year is still remarkable. From different perspectives, the development of mini programs is still going on steadily. All giants are trying to expand the mini program ecosystem more comprehensively and realize the maximum commercial value of the mini program ecosystem. However, there are still many points that need to be improved in the process of developing mini programs. Xiaoqianshuo believes that judging from the development achievements of mini programs last year, mini programs can still withstand some doubts, especially with the efforts of various forces, the prospects of mini programs are still very promising.

1. The DAU data of BAT’s mini programs has grown gratifyingly. The huge traffic makes it possible for mini programs to become unicorns.

As user traffic becomes more and more expensive and customer acquisition becomes more and more difficult, the giants are in urgent need of finding new traffic entrances to expand their business territory. The traffic value of mini programs is very valuable to both giants and start-ups. According to the DAU data of BAT's mini programs, it is feasible for mini programs to shoulder the expectations of giants for commercialization.

According to data previously released by Aladdin: WeChat Mini Programs, which were launched in February 2017, have an average of more than 230 million daily active users, with the number of Mini Programs exceeding 2.3 million. Users open Mini Programs an average of 4 times a day, with 54% of the opens being initiated by users. Baidu Smart Mini Programs, which was officially launched on July 4, 2018, has more than 160 million monthly active users in just 150 days, with 231 APIs and 40+ entrances. Alipay Mini Programs, which were officially launched in September 2018, have a stable daily active user base of 170 million, with more than 500 million users and an average seven-day retention rate of 43.26%.

In addition to the high daily activity of users, there is still a lot of room for the growth of mini program users. According to iMedia Research data, the scale of mini program users will show rapid growth in the future. The scale of users is expected to exceed 400 million in 2018, and by 2020, the scale of mini program users is expected to exceed 850 million. This growth rate and scale give mini programs greater room for development. In the post-mobile Internet era where traffic is expensive, it is too difficult to create a super APP with more than 100 million daily active users, but mini programs have a great chance of helping companies achieve such a goal. Tongcheng Elong, known as the first stock of mini programs, has gained a lot of traffic from mini programs, allowing it to go public in Hong Kong smoothly.

2. Many mini programs have received continuous financing within one year. More than 100 venture capital institutions have invested in mini programs

The most important thing about the potential of mini programs is that they have made it possible for many start-ups to become unicorns, especially many companies that have only been established for a few months have successfully raised funds and the scale of financing is not small. According to Quantum Program, as of December 14 last year, the number and amount of financing related to mini programs in 2018 far exceeded that of last year: the number of financings exceeded 130; the amount of financing exceeded 4.3 billion yuan, more than 6 times that of last year.

The popularity of mini programs is also reflected in the high frequency of high-quality projects receiving funding, with a typical example being Xiangwushuo. Xiangwushuo, founded in September 2017, has received five rounds of financing, with a cumulative amount of more than 110 million US dollars. Investors include Sequoia Capital, IDG, Matrix Partners, IDG, Xiangfeng Changqing, Zhen Fund and other first-tier VCs. Such a fast financing speed is indeed shocking to the industry. In addition, there are many mini program projects that have raised funds twice a year: SEE Xiaodianpu, Faikouer, Feima Technology, Jingdaka, Jianshi, Shanshan, Woshimi, LemonBox, Yuelin, etc.

The booming mini-program world has attracted more than 100 investment institutions, and the brands are all well-known - Jinshajiang, IDG Capital, Gaoling DST Capital, Sequoia Capital... For the mini-program, big-name investment institutions rushed in. Among them, giants also favor mini-program projects. For example, Tencent has invested three times in SEE Xiaodianpu, Haowu Mancang, and Duozhaoyu, all of which are e-commerce related projects. Ant Financial prefers rental mini-programs. The invested Hainiaowo and Renrenzuji focus on digital equipment rental services in tourism scenarios and B2B office equipment rental respectively.

3. The number and scale of mini programs are increasing day by day, and the commercial value of advertising and traffic monetization is huge

It is precisely because of the huge business opportunities contained in mini programs that it has attracted a large number of developers to join this industry. According to iResearch Consulting data, the number of mini programs in China was 580,000 in 2017, and is expected to exceed 2 million in 2018, and is expected to exceed 14 million by 2020. As large-traffic platforms have deployed in the mini program field, more types of mini programs will be connected to various platforms, and the growth trend of the number of mini programs will continue to accelerate in the future.

In addition to the revenue generated by transactions themselves, advertising and traffic monetization are also common commercialization methods for mini programs. E-commerce mini programs have already tasted the sweetness. For example, the conversion rate of Mogujie mini program is twice that of its APP, Pinduoduo's order rate is 10% higher than that of H5 pages, and Rebecca mini program achieved nearly 30 million sales in 113 minutes.

In the ecosystem of mini programs, the growth of the user activity curve means the value of advertising. As the number of mini program users grows rapidly, the time they spend on mini programs increases, which also means that mini programs have more possibilities to monetize the commercial value of users. It is precisely because mini programs are born with the ability to close transaction loops, and there are huge traffic and advantages in connecting online and offline behind them, which also creates great potential for mini programs to achieve commercialization.

For developers, the mini program track is indeed full of huge opportunities and possibilities. Under the premise that the giants have already provided equipment for mini programs, how can developers take root in mini programs in the future?

Giants are adding bricks and tiles to mini programs. The ecosystem is gradually taking shape. It is wisest for developers to seize the opportunity to make good products.

The competition among the giants in mini programs is particularly fierce, and the competition for developers is becoming the key to the competition among the giants. The prosperity of the mini program ecosystem is inseparable from high-quality developers promoting a steady stream of mini programs to strengthen the competitiveness of the platform. The platform that developers choose as the core platform will naturally become stronger in the future. This logic is actually exactly the same as the competition between Android and iOS for developers.

In Xiaoqian's opinion, for most developers, choosing the right platform is more important than ability. They should choose a more suitable platform based on their own areas of expertise. BAT's mini-program platforms have different advantages and focus on different development directions. Developers should choose a platform that suits their own development and choose a good tree to live in, so that they can exert their best strength.

This WeChat open class clearly conveyed the following message to the outside world: the mini program ecosystem is healthy and will get better and better; you just need to make the mini program well, and leave the rest to the platform. For any mini program platform, they also expect more high-quality developers to launch better works to improve the mini program ecosystem. Strong developers will definitely have more opportunities to show themselves on the big stage of mini programs. Therefore, developers should still focus on products and meet market demand in the best way.

For developers, what aspects can they work on? First, the key is to keep innovating in games, products, and models. The business model of Xianwushuo, which uses small red flowers to give gifts, has obtained high financing, which once again shows that business model innovation is the key to attracting money. Second, be sensitive to business acumen and seize the opportunity as early as possible. Last year, the community group buying model was very popular, and many platforms based on mini programs also received investment. Third, better improve the user experience. For example, the AR experience launched by Chimelong in cooperation with Baidu satisfies consumers' viewing methods from a new perspective.

The mini program platform is aimed at all developers. Everyone has the opportunity to demonstrate their skills in this field, but if you want to become the protagonist in the mini program field, you still have to rely on the product to speak. Only by gaining recognition from more users can you become the protagonist of the stage.

Text | Xiaoqian, founder of Tuhao.com, Internet observer, columnist for dozens of technology media, please indicate copyright when reprinting