AR glasses want to completely break up with iPhone! Apple: I can't do that

While it’s easy to overstate the state of AR as a disaster, my take is a little different: AR has had a slow and highly publicized rocky start, with developers trying to get past impractical early hardware and primitive software, and consumers waiting for Apple to deliver a new consumer solution that will redefine the AR market.

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That product is apparently going to have to wait until "next year," as Apple AR reports that the company has decided to release AR glasses that will require an iPhone for most of their functionality. This could be a huge relief, or just a slap in the face to Apple, depending on how much you like and agree with the discrete AR implementations from Leap Motion, Microsoft, and Magic Leap. It's almost impossible now that Apple Glasses will require a wall-mounted computer, a pair of goggles the size of snow goggles, or an AR helmet with a harness - solutions promoted by other companies.

That’s good news, at least for now. Assuming today’s report is correct, Apple is admitting that it can’t yet embed a computer into a headset, and won’t sell you a separate computer just for AR. If a separate processing and networking device is needed to support AR functionality, it should be something you already carry with you all the time: your phone.

Qualcomm has come to the same conclusion. Last month, the company launched a new XR Viewer program (XR stands for extended reality, including VR, AR, and MR. Its important feature is that it will get rid of wire control and is likely to achieve a leap from PC to mobile), which will allow Android 5G smartphones to connect to lightweight AR headsets with built-in displays and micro tracking cameras. Several companies are already developing phones and headsets that support XR Viewers, and the earliest products may be available before Apple.

As of early 2019, alternatives based on mobile processing have not proven viable for consumer AR. Microsoft is perhaps the most successful maker of full head-mounted computers, but even after years of working on AR wearables, its just-announced HoloLens 2 seems unable to be shrunk to a commercially viable “industrial” size.

Granted, Microsoft isn’t great at miniaturizing new technology — it was focusing on desktop-sized Surface devices when Apple launched the first pocket-sized iPhones. But even though the market demanded an AR device better suited to consumers than the low-selling HoloLens 1, and the company was able to develop smaller, faster, and cheaper chips, it chose to stick with the smaller enterprise market.

Wall-mounted and semi-portable AR devices are not doing much better. Leap Motion's AR devices are still in the customized individual demand stage. Although the Greenhouse Group made an interesting demonstration last year showing how AR technology can be used to let office workers summon workspaces wherever they can find a console or keyboard, I don't think ordinary consumers will accept this kind of AR device that can only be used indoors.

Magic Leap's alternative, Magic Leap One, is "semi-portable" and you can carry it around, but you can't use it outdoors because it currently relies on a Wi-Fi connection for data and you need to wear its built-in computing unit on your belt or on your back. That limitation seems unlikely to change until the company upgrades its current developer version to a second or third generation version based on 5G mobile phone connections, by which time it will at least be able to work outdoors to some extent.

Apple is reportedly developing a discrete wall-mounted or portable computer for its AR headset, running a new operating system called "rOS" (Reality Operating System). But it may just be prototyping hardware that could eventually be embedded inside a headset, using future advances in chipmaking.

Especially after today's report, I believe rOS, like watchOS for the Apple Watch, is designed as an extensible sub-device of iOS that can grow with more capabilities as AR hardware becomes more powerful. Just like watchOS, it is subordinate to iOS when necessary, and when the technology matures, it will run independently of iOS.

Relying on the iPhone for processing, networking, and location services has another key benefit: price. Apple is not opposed to selling customers three devices with completely overlapping functions (think iPhone, iPad, and Mac), but weak sales of HoloLens and other AR headsets show that ordinary people are not willing to pay $1,000 or more for a wearable computer.

This situation may not change for at least 10 years. Even the popular wearable computer, the Apple Watch, seems to be mostly sold for $400 to $700. It is worth noting that neither the acceptance nor the CPU performance of the Apple Watch has reached the stage where it can be used as a wireless auxiliary device for AR glasses, although I strongly suspect that Apple is also exploring this option.

As of today, it looks like Apple and other companies are three years or less away from being able to fit their entire computing solutions into eyeglass frames. During that time, chipmakers plan to move from their current 7-nanometer manufacturing process to a 3-nanometer manufacturing process. This will allow companies like Apple to produce chips that are just as powerful as today’s in less than a quarter of the size. Some of today’s portable technology will become wearable technology, and wearable technology will become nearly invisible.

When that happens, you won’t need to carry a phone with you while wearing AR glasses, just like you don’t need to carry an iPhone if you have an Apple Watch. The latter took Apple three generations of watch updates to bring to market, but thanks to continued advances in chip manufacturing and engineering, that process didn’t take as long as expected.

I am optimistic that AR glasses will benefit from the same steady technological progress. In the foreseeable future, AR glasses will move from the initial testing stage to the final market application stage. By 2030, we may not even remember what life was like without them, just as we can’t imagine what life was like without smartphones a dozen years ago.