The 5nm process is about to be launched. Will it be the killer feature of iPhone 12?

The MWC at the end of February has been cancelled due to the epidemic, but the number of press conferences in the technology industry will not decrease. On February 18, Qualcomm held an online communication meeting and brought the latest generation of 5G chips - Snapdragon X60. Compared with Snapdragon X55, its peak rate improvement is not obvious, but there are several outstanding highlights: the process technology has been upgraded to 5nm, which is the world's first 5nm chip released; the size of the supporting antenna group has been reduced, and the overall size can be made smaller.

In recent years, we can clearly see the rapid progress of chip manufacturing technology. In 2016, the process of flagship mobile phone chips was still 14nm, and now it has been gradually improved to 7nm. In 2020, products using 5nm chips will be launched in batches.

TSMC and Samsung are fighting for 5nm

At present, there are not many strong foundries in the chip manufacturing field. TSMC and Samsung are the most qualified players in mastering the most advanced process technology.

TSMC: Mass production in the first half of the year

According to information released by TSMC, the 5nm EUV process will be mass-produced in the first half of this year, and the production capacity will be increased to 70,000 to 80,000 wafers per month in the second half of the year.

Data from a paper released by TSMC at the end of last year showed that TSMC's 7nm process can produce approximately 96.27 million transistors per square millimeter, while the 5nm transistor density is 1.83 times that of TSMC, which means that the number of transistors produced per square millimeter can reach 177 million.

In addition, compared with 7nm, TSMC's 5nm EUV has a 15% increase in energy efficiency and a 30% reduction in power consumption. The average yield of the test chip is currently 80% and the peak yield is 90%. AnandTech, a well-known foreign technology media, pointed out in an analysis article that the chips currently involved in the test are relatively simple in structure, and the chips that are actually put into production will be more complex and the yield will be lower.

Of course, judging from the current progress, TSMC will have no problem achieving mass production of 5nm in the first half of the year. In the second half of the year, we will see large-scale shipments of smart devices equipped with 5nm chips.

Samsung: Catching up

In terms of 7nm process, Samsung is one step behind TSMC. Whether it is Qualcomm Snapdragon 855, Snapdragon 865, Apple's A12, A13, and Huawei's Kirin 980 and Kirin 990, they all use TSMC's 7nm.

Samsung's first 7nm chip is its own Exynos 9825, which was released in August last year. The latest Exynos 990 also uses the 7nm process.

Samsung has accelerated its pace in the 5nm process. Last year, Samsung revealed in its Q3 financial report that the 5nm process has entered the tape-out stage. Samsung's 5nm continues to use transistors from the 7nm LPP process, with a density 1.33 times that of the 7nm process, a 10% performance improvement, and a 20% reduction in power consumption.

At present, TSMC still maintains its lead in 7nm process and is expected to receive orders from major chip manufacturers. However, Samsung's 5nm process has surpassed TSMC's 7nm and Intel's 10nm, and has already caught up, so it will not be short of orders.

Who will get the first batch of 5nm?

The Snapdragon X60, which was just released, is the first chip to be announced using the 5nm process. However, according to Qualcomm's plan, it will take until early next year for it to be used in consumer products and shipped in large quantities. From a product perspective, the Snapdragon X60 is an upgraded version of the Snapdragon X55 and is also the third-generation 5G solution currently launched by Qualcomm.

According to foreign media reports, Samsung has won the Snapdragon X60 5nm order and is responsible for the production of this 5G chip. However, TSMC may also be responsible for part of the Snapdragon X60 order in the future, and the two companies will share this large order.

In addition, it is basically certain that Apple’s A14 processor this year will adopt TSMC’s 5nm process and become TSMC’s largest customer.

There is still very little information available about A14. Foreign media MacWorld said that with the 5nm process, the number of transistors of A14 can reach 12.5 billion, and the multi-core score in GeekBench may reach 4500 points, or even exceed 5000 points.

The well-known domestic digital blogger @i冰宇宙 also revealed on Weibo not long ago that the running score of Apple's A14 chip is 1559 for single-core and 4047 for multi-core, which is a significant improvement compared to A13.

As for the iPad Pro 2020, which has not yet been released, the chip used is estimated to be A13X, and the GPU performance has been greatly improved. However, as a tablet product, it is relatively less sensitive to chip power consumption. The A13X is estimated to use TSMC's 7nm process like the A13.

In addition to Apple A13 and Qualcomm Snapdragon X60, other chips that are likely to use 5nm process include Kirin 1020, Snapdragon 875, AMD Zen 3 processor, etc. In addition, according to news from the supply chain, Bitmain's 5nm chip has entered the tape-out stage at the end of last year, which is estimated to be an AI chip product.

It is reported that TSMC's first batch of 5nm customers are mainly Apple, followed by Huawei, and it is estimated that it will not be popularized in consumer-grade chips until 2021. Of course, whether it is the 2020 iPhone or Huawei's new Mate flagship, 5nm will become an important selling point for them.

How long until the end of Moore's Law?

More than 50 years ago, the famous Moore's Law was proposed: the number of transistors on an integrated circuit doubles every 18 months. Over the past few decades, the performance of chips has been continuously updated at an astonishing speed. After entering the era of touch-screen smartphones, the development of mobile chips has been rapid, constantly breaking through the limits of process technology.

According to TSMC's announced plan, 5nm is far from the end, and it will move towards 3nm and 2nm in the future. According to the most optimistic estimate, TSMC will be able to achieve mass production of 2nm process in 2024, which is still four years away.

At last year's Hotchips International Conference, TSMC R&D Director Hansen Huang said in his speech that Moore's Law is still valid, it has not died out and it has not slowed down. He even said that by 2050, the size of transistors will be reduced to 0.1nm.

According to the roadmap released by Samsung, its process evolution route is 7LPP-6LPP-5LPE-4LPE. Moreover, Samsung's next focus is on the 3nm GAA process. If it can be mass-produced in the next two years, it will surpass TSMC.

Neither TSMC nor Samsung has stopped upgrading its process technology. At least for now, it will take a long time for Moore's Law to become invalid.

Of course, in chip manufacturing, every time the process advances, the cost of investment will increase a lot. In order to solve the process problems, technology giants have to invest huge amounts of money in research and development, and building a 3nm or 2nm wafer fab requires an investment of tens of billions of dollars.

Recently, TSMC announced at a media conference that its expenditure in 2020 will be between US$15 billion and US$16 billion, of which 80% will be used to expand production capacity, including 7nm, 5nm and 3nm. Samsung Electronics, which stands at the top of the pyramid in the semiconductor industry, also announced that it will spend US$116 billion on wafer manufacturing in the next ten years.

This means that the cost of manufacturing advanced chips may be even higher in the future, and the only chip manufacturers that can afford them may be giants such as Apple, Huawei, and Qualcomm. New manufacturers trying to develop their own chips will face even higher technical and financial barriers.

Similarly, in wafer manufacturing, TSMC and Samsung have already occupied an absolute advantage, and it has become quite difficult for other manufacturers to catch up. However, SMIC has made very fast progress in process technology. In the third quarter of last year, it achieved mass production of 14nm, one year ahead of schedule, and 12nm has also been put on the agenda. SMIC is expected to receive chip orders from Huawei and other manufacturers. Under the still severe situation, we still have the most basic chip manufacturing capabilities.