An article that explains the current hot topic of one dollar treasure hunt!
In 2016, in the post-bubble Internet era, capital is more cautious. Therefore, the two most popular projects have become " live streaming " and " one dollar treasure hunt " with clear monetization models. There are already numerous articles analyzing live broadcasts, but there are relatively few articles analyzing the one-yuan treasure hunt. Therefore, the author hopes to explain the one-dollar treasure hunting model more thoroughly through this article. Market situation of NetEase's one-yuan treasure-grabbing advertising treasure-grabbing Market size: The total turnover of the treasure hunting market in 2016 was conservatively estimated at 10 billion. The calculation process is as follows: Past life:As early as 2013, Yiyuan Cloud Shopping was launched; in the second half of 2014, NetEase Yiyuan Duobao was launched; in early 2015, the state issued a ban on online lottery sales, and Duobao entered a period of rapid development; from the end of 2015 to the present, Duobao products have exploded at a high density. There are currently more than 300 treasure-hunting apps on the App Store, not counting platforms such as JD.com, 360, Meituan, and Weibo that have introduced treasure-hunting based on their original models, as well as those that will soon be introduced.Analysis of the Treasure Hunting Model One Yuan Treasure Hunt is actually a lottery. For example, a mobile phone with a market price of 4k can be priced at 5k, which is divided into 5,000 lottery tickets, and users can buy any number of lottery tickets. The prize will be drawn after all 5,000 tickets are purchased. The platform earns the difference between the treasure hunting price and the market price. Analyzing this mode, we can easily find that the treasure hunt has the following characteristics: ● There are no technical barriers . The algorithm is very simple. The winning number is obtained by calculating the cumulative value of the last n purchase times of a certain product or all products on the entire site. In order to appear more fair, some platforms will add the variable Chongqing Old Time Lottery. Taobao even sells a complete set of product technology solutions for just a few thousand yuan. ● There is no requirement for traffic . On the surface, anyone who has a favorite item that they cannot afford can spend some money to try to get it. The speculative mentality represented by lottery is a universal demand. ● Suppliers with relatively low operating difficulty? unnecessary. You can just place an order directly from JD.com or Taobao. The price for the treasure hunt is higher than the market price anyway. E-commerce content organization? unnecessary. Just copy the picture directly. For something like iPhone 6s, do you still need to read the details page before buying it? User operation ? Don't make it too complicated. Just keep bringing in users. JD.com price vs Duobao price Precisely because of the above-mentioned characteristics of treasure hunting, for various purposes such as traffic monetization and user activation, numerous treasure hunting platforms have sprung up like mushrooms after the rain, and the market has quickly entered the red ocean period. User attributes of Duobao: e-commerce? Gambling? Treasure hunting users naturally have the dual attributes of e-commerce and gambling. Which one is more important and more worthy of investment? Let’s discuss this at three levels. Q1: What needs does treasure hunting satisfy? Judging from the past and present of the treasure hunt, it is already obvious that the alternative to the treasure hunt lottery naturally satisfies the need for speculation rather than purchasing. Q2: What is the user distribution of treasure hunting users? The data is in the "Baidu Index". The data distribution of treasure hunting is very obvious, males aged 20-40, mainly distributed in Guangzhou. However, the proportion of women with strong e-commerce attributes is almost zero. Baidu Index related data As for why Guangzhou has the most. Let me tell you a story. In 2014, I went to Guangzhou to visit a friend and saw two uncles on the roadside at the entrance of the village, betting on whether the last digit of the license plate number of the next passing car would be an even number or an odd number. 100 per game. They sat there gambling for 2 hours, and I was completely confused... This shows how much Guangzhou people love gambling. Q3: What do treasure hunting users like to buy? Any treasure hunting app will have monetary products. The so-called monetary commodity refers to a commodity that is highly standardized, has high market recognition, is easy to circulate and convert into cash, and has a small discount when traded. Such as iPhone, gold, and JD.com cards. On the other hand, some treasure hunting products, such as NetEase’s one-yuan treasure hunting, have a very rich variety of prizes and are updated relatively frequently. So which products are users more inclined to buy? The following is the data of 10,000 items sold by NetEase’s one-yuan treasure hunt, the top 1 in the treasure hunt industry. NetEase 10,000 product data We can see 1. The three categories of monetary goods (cars, apples and gold) account for an astonishing 84%! 2. NetEase itself owns e-commerce platforms such as NetEase Yanxuan and Kaola.com, so the categories of treasure hunt products are extremely rich, such as "miscellaneous goods", which reach 304 kinds. But it accounts for 15% of the turnover! 3. To give another example, there is an advertisement for a one-yuan treasure hunt on NetEase Yanxuan’s website, and the treasure hunt items include 55 carefully selected products. If the user's e-commerce attributes are strong enough, it is natural for users from Yanxuan to participate in the treasure hunt! But we found that this part of the turnover only accounts for a negligible 0.3%! 4. When the data was obtained, the Warcraft movie was selling well. NetEase One Yuan Treasure Hunt seized this opportunity. World of Warcraft merchandise is now available. It can be said that there are great differences, they keep up with hot topics, and most of the treasure hunting users are male, so their attributes match! However, only 62 units were sold! Through the above analysis, we can find that the gambling attributes of treasure hunting are far greater than its e-commerce attributes. Compared with other e-commerce platforms, Duobao has its own 80/20 rule. Gambling users, who account for 20% of the total, contribute 80% of the turnover. For them, treasure hunting = gambling. E-commerce users who are fond of buying goods with monetary attributes (iphones, gold) account for 80% of the total number and contribute 20% of the turnover. They often place bets on a certain product on impulse, but will not make continuous large bets, so the LTV is very small. The Pareto Principle It is very important to make this clear. Some people would easily think that Duobao is a new type of e-commerce and should be built using e-commerce thinking, which ultimately leads to directional errors. for example 1. Constantly change products to stimulate users' desire to buy; 2. Build a recommendation system to expand GMV with guess what you like; 3. Make jokes based on hot news and products every day to push them to entice users to open them; 4. Make a long product details page that is richer and more informative than Taobao; 5. Try to let users browse more product pages; organize products by topic, and I wish I could go back and forth on ten topics a day... These will consume a lot of energy in product development and operations, and will not significantly help improve LTV and overall GMV. The hidden "joint venture group" The treasure hunt has spawned a gray industry chain, namely joint venture treasure hunt. In the winning records of the One Yuan Treasure Hunt, you can see that many mobile phones or gold were taken away by the joint venture group. If you search for "Duobao Joint Venture" on QQ, you will also see many different types of joint venture groups. Left is the QQ search result & right is the 50g gold winning record A treasure hunting group usually consists of several drivers, a consignee and many ordinary players. There is a clear division of labor within the group, and the "driver" is responsible for placing bets. Generally, Yiyuanduobao and Yiyuanyungou are used as platforms, and predictions and orders are made through "trend software" developed by a third party. Ordinary players call, usually betting 50 or 100. After winning the prize, the driver will distribute part of the profit to ordinary players, and the prize will be sold at a discount to the "recipients" in the group who are responsible for receiving the goods, and eventually it will flow out of the Taobao store. Driver group pattern analysis For example, in this case: The first joint venture car, 1,000 yuan Jingdong card , 50 yuan per ticket, 8 tickets in total, 400 cars will be launched and the winning will be refunded 2 times! The above information means that you have to join forces to win a JD.com card worth 1,000 yuan. Each person contributes 50 yuan, and when the total is 400 yuan, the driver will place the bet. After winning the prize, each bettor will receive a 100 yuan reward. Here, the driver earns the difference. If a 1,000-yuan JD.com card is sold at a 95% discount, the driver can get 1,000×0.95-400*2=150 each time he wins. The consignee gets the card at a 95% discount and can sell it on Taobao at a 92% discount to make a profit. On the one hand, ordinary players trust the veteran players because they place bets based on trend software. On the other hand, this way of playing allows quick entry and exit and direct cash receipt, which is more exciting. There are hundreds of such joint venture groups on the Internet. Suppose there are 200 of them. Each group runs 10 cars a day, and each car costs 500 yuan. The turnover here is 1 million yuan per day. The predecessor of this model was the development of proxy betting and follow-up betting when lottery tickets could be sold online (you can still see a lot of such ads on lottery websites now). The key points of treasure hunting operation Accurately acquire users Once again, the premise of accuracy is the accuracy of user portraits. If you treat treasure hunting as e-commerce, you will find that your cost of effective users (betting) from various channels may be around 20 yuan. Assuming that the overall profit of the product is 10%, this means that the average betting amount per user throughout their life cycle must reach 200 yuan in order to recover the cost. The users you acquire have a very low gambling impulse. They will only choose what they like from a wide range of products and bet a few dollars, or at most a dozen dollars. Once they find out that they have not won the prize, they will leave. The average bet per person may be less than 10. So doing this will definitely lead to the death of the treasure hunter. Therefore, the channels for treasure hunting should focus on laying out channels where gambling users gather. For example, the joint venture group we just mentioned. Meeting the needs of gaming users Currently, the homogeneity of treasure hunting products is too serious. Let us calm down and look at what the psychological needs of gambling users are without any prejudice. The illusion of “I am the most generous” The beautiful dealers and beautiful ladies in the casino, and the sighs and exclamations of the onlookers, are all magnifying the user's illusion: I am the most generous! In treasure hunting products, it is also necessary to build an environment to enhance user satisfaction in this regard. Beautiful women can be turned into message robots and customer service, sighs and exclamations can be turned into likes and comments, and the winning push can be turned into you defeating XX people in this round with only XX money! Why are the tycoons who broadcast live willing to spend money? It’s not just for the anchor’s words: Brother, you are so handsome, I love you so much. And because of the envy, jealousy and hatred of the losers around me. At this point, some treasure-hunting apps that have realized this have begun to build IM systems and social relationships. God of Gamblers The instant excitement of winning a prize Since most of the prizes for treasure hunting are physical prizes, there is an extended period of 3-10 days from the time the user wins the prize to the time they receive the prize. This extended period will greatly reduce the sense of excitement. What should I do? 1. The radical way is to directly seize the Alipay card. After winning the prize, the user will receive the card code via SMS. On the Alipay website, simply enter the card code to convert the amount on the card into your Alipay balance. It can be understood as another form of transfer. 2. Some merchants use phone charge cards because phone charge cards can be directly exchanged for cash at a 95% discount on the Alipay App. 3. The best way to experience the prize is to include a one-click selling function in the notification after winning the prize, which can directly help users cash out at a certain discount and deposit the prize into Alipay. 4. All of the above methods must fully consider using reasonable means to avoid policy risks. The “I Can Figure It Out” Illusion From a psychological perspective, "control" is a basic psychological demand of human beings. For example, in ancient times, when people saw a lunar eclipse, they did not know that it was the sun blocking the moon. But they made up a story about a heavenly dog eating the moon, and invented the method of beating gongs and drums to drive away the heavenly dog to dispel the lunar eclipse. This explanation was wrong, but it reassured them, as they felt they had mastered the secret of the lunar eclipse and that this terrifying natural phenomenon was controllable. Whether the explanation itself is correct or not is not important. On the other hand, in any lottery station, there will be a trend chart showing the results of each lottery draw and also made into a line graph. We all know that this is a random event, but lottery players will sit there and study it for a long time, never getting tired of it, and inventing all kinds of terms, algorithms, and trends. Because they hope to win the prize, they will explain the event in their own way, which makes them feel at ease and more in control. Every time they feel they have made a good guess, they will invest heavily. Didn’t win? It doesn't matter! I must have not understood! I'll go back and calculate it carefully and come again next time! Lottery players who carefully study the trend The same goes for gamblers. For example, the game of blackjack. Baidu has 22,500,000 search results, while the number of results for One Yuan Treasure Hunt is only 5,380,000. Why? Because the rules of blackjack are more complex and have more variations, people can continue to study them and gain a sense of control. What about the one dollar treasure hunt? The rules are too simple, too random, and all based on luck. Which gambler would get addicted? If I give you 500 yuan and ask you to choose between playing 21 points or 1 yuan treasure hunt, you will choose 21 points. 21 point scene map Currently, some platforms have developed trend chart functions to enhance users' sense of control. But more fundamentally, the gameplay of the treasure hunt should be more numerous and more complex, rather than more objective. Because no matter how objective you are, people who don't like you will still think you are faking it. You can consider removing the random variable of lottery and only use the data generated in each issue as the basis, so that the purchasing methods of different people can influence and restrain each other, so that people can generate enough strategies and playing methods. Screenshot of a certain one-dollar treasure hunting trend software Conclusion: The entire treasure-hunting industry is skirting the rules. At the same time, with the increase in the number of players and the rise in user costs, the market's bonus period has passed. Except for platforms with sufficient traffic or a full understanding of the gambling nature of treasure hunting, please enter with caution. Among the platforms that have not opened treasure hunting, I am most optimistic about Weibo. Weibo has the dual functions of social attributes and media attributes, which can continuously amplify users' illusion that "I am the most generous" (see above), which is also what other treasure hunting platforms lack the most. At the same time, by utilizing the existing relationship chains, Weibo Treasure Hunt can evolve into a variety of gameplay. For example, Weibo’s core resource, Star Bowl, Yang Yang uses the hats he has worn as prizes, and his fans will definitely flock to it. Mobile application product promotion services: ASO optimization services Qinggua Media information flow The author of this article @colearners compiled and published by (APP Top Promotion). Please indicate the author information and source when reprinting! |
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