What is the mortgage interest rate in July 2020? LPR mortgage interest rate analysis and forecast

China's loan prime rate (LPR) has remained unchanged for four consecutive months.

The People's Bank of China authorized the National Interbank Funding Center to release the latest LPR on the 20th. Among them, the one-year LPR is 3.85%, and the LPR for more than five years is 4.65%, both of which remain unchanged. The LPR has remained unchanged for four consecutive months since April.

Xu Xiaole, chief market analyst at Beike Research Institute, believes that China's economic recovery in the first half of the year exceeded expectations, which shows that the response measures taken after the epidemic have achieved phased results. At the same time, under financial easing, asset prices including land and real estate in core cities have risen. Therefore, the recent monetary policy has maintained a certain degree of restraint and loan interest rates have remained unchanged, in line with the principle of timeliness and moderation.

Xu Xiaole predicts that under the recent pressure of various regulatory measures, the momentum for the rapid growth of the real estate market in core cities will weaken, and the market will gradually "cool down" in the second half of the year.

Yan Yuejin, research director of the think tank center of the E-House Research Institute, believes that the LPR, which has remained unchanged for four consecutive months, sends a strong signal: there have been two relatively obvious interest rate cuts in the first half of the year, and subsequent interest rate cuts will remain restrained. At the same time, judging from the current policy orientation, more emphasis is placed on the digestion of existing interest rate policies.

He believes that from the second half of the year, the loose interest rate environment will still exist.

On July 11, a spokesperson for the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission pointed out that the prominent risks and challenges currently faced include a rebound in some market disorders. Some high-risk shadow banks have revived, and some have attempted to make a comeback in new forms and with new faces. The leverage ratios of enterprises, households and other sectors have increased. Some funds illegally flowed into the real estate and stock markets, pushing up asset bubbles.

At the same time, since July, many places including Dongguan, Hangzhou, Ningbo and Shenzhen have introduced tightening policies on real estate regulation.

Yan Yuejin said that, on the whole, this may mean that the national mortgage interest rate policy will be oriented towards easing in the second half of the year, but some cities where housing prices are highly speculated may face the possibility of tightening and increases.