How to grow users from 100 to 100,000!

This article is divided into two parts. The first part is data logic analysis, which is more theoretical; the second part is insight into user psychology, which is more practical. The first part is the premise for understanding the second part, so skipping reading is not recommended.

1. Data logic analysis

Let’s go back to the origin of the activity: You are the operator of a training company, and your boss assigns you the task of increasing the number of users by 100,000 within three days. Currently, the company has 100 users, so the task is urgent and your boss attaches great importance to it. We have to complete the task, what should we do?

The best way to complete a task is to break it down according to the three-stage rocket growth model: S=m*β*2ⁿ (S is the number of growing users, m is the initial user base, β is the conversion rate, and 2ⁿ is the multi-layer fission assumed under ideal circumstances).

The disassembled formula is as follows:

100,000=100*β*2ⁿ

In order to reduce the difficulty of calculation, we also count the original 100 users into the new ones. According to the common conversion rate of 10-20% in the training industry, we substitute the conversion rate of 20%, and the formula is as follows:

100,000=100*20%*2ⁿ

This gives us 2ⁿ≈5000, and n is approximately equal to 12. This means that 100 users are needed to complete the task. With a conversion rate of 20%, it will take about 12 layers of fission downward to achieve the growth of 100,000 users.

This is obviously unrealistic and impossible to achieve. As we all know, we are thankful if user fission can reach the third level. If it reaches the 12th level, isn’t that crazy?

Is the work really impossible to perform? Where exactly does the problem occur?

Based on industry experience, we found that it is the 2ⁿ model that misleads us. Because in the training industry, one old user can often generate 40 new users. So, instead of using 2ⁿ, use 40ⁿ. After updating, the formula is as follows:

100,000=100*20%*40ⁿ

40ⁿ≈5000, which means n≈2.31. Isn’t this much more reasonable? Some people may give feedback that users with strong abilities can generate 40 new users, but what about users with weak abilities? Let’s lower the difficulty and assume that each user only reaches 20 new customers, then 20ⁿ≈5000 and n≈2.85. This is equivalent to fission 2.85 layers to achieve our effect. Then, the final formula is:

100,000=100*20%*20 ^2.85

How could there be 2.85 layers in actual fission? In order to ensure the quality of the activity, we calculate it as 3. So the factors and goals that the activity needs to achieve are as follows: user base target m=100, conversion rate β target=20%; the new fission base of each layer of users is 20, and the fission layer number n≈2.85 is adjusted to 3. This is the end of the theoretical analysis. So, what are the user psychological activities that can enable us to achieve the participation of all old users, a conversion rate of 20%, and a fission level of 3 through operational means?

2. Insight into user psychology

We still conduct insights and analysis on human nature based on the three factors that influence growth, and then propose operational ideas to maximize the effects.

1. User base

We mentioned earlier that the company currently has only 100 old users. So, how can we ensure that all 100 old users participate in fission?

This also requires analysis from the perspective of human psychological activities. Human psychological activities can actually be simply understood as human needs. Human needs are complex and difficult to summarize in short words. For the sake of convenience, we can simply organize it into four categories: fame, profit, power, and lust. We mainly analyze the psychological activities of ordinary users, so there is no need to consider power struggles or lust. Then, after simplification, the first two factors are omitted.

How to use fame and fortune to motivate old users?

As we all know, old users are the first users to support the company and are the most loyal users to the company. Because they recognize the company and its products and hope to be with the products for a long time, they are willing to pay and sacrifice a small part of their interests. Therefore, the activities we design should be: participation first (reputation first), profit second. Therefore, activity design may wish to think from the following two directions:

1. Anyone who participates in the event and recruits 20 or more new members can attend the company's annual meeting, excluding transportation costs.
2. All users who participate in the event can participate in the "Thunder Plan" ranking and receive ranking awards.

This not only satisfies the sense of participation, but also reduces the cost of the enterprise. At the same time, ranking activities can motivate and stimulate the enthusiasm of old users.

2. Conversion rate

How to ensure a conversion rate of 20%?

There are two reasons why users recognize a product:

• price
• value

In terms of conversion rate, we chose a solution with a value that exceeded our expectations. Therefore, we might consider the following three aspects when designing activities:

1. We invited the most famous xx experts in China to give live lectures. The courses are professional.
2. The course price is set at 0.01 yuan, breaking the user's psychological bottom line and cost perception of course expectations.
3. It not only provides live broadcast, but also provides valuable opportunities to participate in face-to-face online exchanges and Q&A with experts

Each of these three aspects exceeds the expectations of new users and reaches their highest point, thus ensuring conversion rate.

3. Number of fission layers

The so-called fission means that I am willing to share; the person I share with is also willing to share. So, how can we make others willing to share?

In addition to high-value products and low-priced, limited-time incentives, can we make some designs based on users’ basic needs for fame and profit? How can we guide them to actively share and increase the number of fission layers while ensuring the lowest cost? Therefore, the activity design may refer to the following considerations:

• Each forwarding will earn you a chance to win a prize
• Every 3 forwardings will give you a chance to collect cards
• If you forward it 10 times, you can get a physical book worth 29.9 yuan.
• If you forward it 20 times, you can get a 100 yuan free threshold coupon
• Repost 30 times to get chemistry learning aids worth 599 yuan

If you successfully collect cards or win the lottery, you can get the following prizes: iPhone 13 pro, Universal Studios tickets, xx brand super popular lipstick, etc. Why these prizes?

• The latest iPhone models are watched by hundreds of millions of users every year, have a huge impact on the market, and are more likely to attract young people's attention and interest;
• Universal Studios can be said to be the biggest hit this year. The traffic blessing of "Talkative Megatron" plus the leisure and entertainment experience of exotic customs are very popular in themselves;
• Female users basically can't move a step when they hear about lipstick, cosmetics, and facial masks. They are naturally not immune, which makes the event more popular.

Today’s case sharing ends here. Thank you for your support.

Author: Zhong Jiazhen

Source: Things about Internet Operations