The world's first picture! "Omicron" VS "Delta", how big is the threat?

Strictly prevent the spread of the new coronavirus variant Omicron

Become a new global epidemic prevention goal!

From 26th to 27th

Many countries have

Regarding South Africa and several neighboring countries where the new strain was first reported

Implementing cross-border flight and travel bans

Hopefully, this new strain, which could be more dangerous than Delta,

Isolated outside the country

But the UK reported its first confirmed cases of the Omicron strain

Germany, Czech Republic, Netherlands and other European countries

Related suspected cases found

…

On the 26th local time, the World Health Organization held an emergency meeting and issued a statement, listing this new coronavirus variant B.1.1.529 as a "variant of concern" and named it Omicron.

American experts believe :

" The new variant may be 500% more contagious "

On the 26th local time, the Federation of American Scientists published a statement pointing out that compared with the Delta variant, the new variant has twice as many "bad spike mutations" as the Delta variant, and "the B.1.1.529 variant may be 500% more infectious, which is the most shocking statistic so far." On the 26th local time, the United States announced that it would restrict non-US citizens from South Africa and seven other countries from traveling to the United States starting on the 29th. Previously, many places such as the United Kingdom and the European Union have stopped flights from African countries.

The world's first photo of Omicron

On November 27th local time, the scientific research team of the Rome Children's Hospital in Italy released the world's first picture of the new mutant strain of the new coronavirus, Omicron.

△Comparison of spike protein mutations of Delta strain and Omicron strain (picture from Rome Children's Hospital)

The images show that the Omicron strain has more spike protein mutations than the Delta strain of the new coronavirus variant. These mutations are diverse and most are located in the area that interacts with human cells.

Researchers say the coronavirus is adapting further to the human body through mutation, but that doesn't necessarily mean it's becoming more dangerous.

▲Data map

What symptoms will the new coronavirus variant "Omicron" cause?

South African Medical Association speaks out

According to the Russian Satellite News Agency, Angelique Coetzee, President of the South African Medical Association, introduced the symptoms of infection with the new strain of the new coronavirus "Omicron" on the 26th local time, and said that the variant currently only causes "mild illness."

"This is a mild disease with symptoms including muscle aches, fatigue and a mild cough. So far, we have found that the infected people have not lost their sense of taste and smell, and have no obvious symptoms." Coetzee also revealed that some patients are being treated at home.

The new variant virus spreads at an alarming speed

Aroused high vigilance among countries

The WHO pointed out in a statement that South Africa first reported the variant to the WHO on November 24, and the first sample infected with the variant was collected on November 9. The variant contains a large number of mutations, some of which are worrying. Preliminary studies have shown that compared with other "variants of concern", this variant increases the risk of reinfection with the virus. Currently, the number of cases infected with the variant is increasing in almost all provinces in South Africa.

Tambo International Airport in Johannesburg, South Africa

The United States has made slow progress in sequencing the genes of the coronavirus for a long time, and medical experts are worried that the new coronavirus variant, Omicron, may have already spread within the U.S. In addition, the recent peak in holiday travel in the United States and the increase in large-scale gatherings of the public have caused American medical experts to worry about the epidemic in the United States.

Medical experts worry that new variants may have spread in the United States

In the past two weeks, the epidemic data in the United States has shown a clear upward trend. According to data from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, as of the 25th, the average number of daily infections in the United States within 7 days has reached 94,000, an increase of 47% over the same period last month.

In addition, experts are also worried that due to the long-term slow progress in the United States in the genetic sequencing of the new coronavirus, the new coronavirus variant Omicron recently discovered in South Africa and other countries may have spread to the United States.

Peter Hotez, professor at Baylor College of Medicine: We have tended to be inactive in the process of sequencing viral genes, so I would not be surprised at all if the new variant has spread to the United States.

Fauci: Omicron strain may already exist in the United States and has not yet been discovered

According to a report by CNN on November 27 local time, Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, said that the new coronavirus variant Omicron may have appeared in the United States but has not yet been discovered.

Fauci profile picture

The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said on November 26 that so far, no known cases of infection with the Omicron strain have been found in the United States. If the mutant strain appears in the United States, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention expects to quickly identify cases through the monitoring system.

Where did the mutant strain come from? Researchers are studying

As the Omicron variant continues to spread, researchers are also studying where it came from. Francois Ballou, a professor of biology at University College London, analyzed that the Omicron variant carries a series of unusual mutations, which may have occurred during a chronic infection in an immunocompromised case, or may have come from an untreated AIDS patient.

More experimental data is still needed to assess the risk of new variants

Compared with the Delta virus, what is the greater danger of the mutant strain "Omicron"? Will it cause a wider spread?

According to Russia Today, the Omicron variant is currently spreading at an alarming rate in Africa and outside Africa.

Taking South Africa as an example, 90% of the new cases of infection in Gauteng Province in South Africa are related to this variant. Many Western media believe that the Omicron variant is the most dangerous new coronavirus variant in the world.

Researchers said that the Delta variant discovered in India in October last year contains a total of 15 mutations. The World Health Organization listed it as a "variant of concern" in May this year; and according to preliminary research, the Omicron variant, which was also listed as a "variant of concern" by the WHO, has more mutations than the Delta strain. It is currently known that the variant carries at least 32 mutations. A large number of mutations means that the effectiveness of existing new crown vaccines may be weakened and may be more contagious.

WHO officials said that little is known about the new variant and more experimental data is still needed to assess whether it is more contagious or more resistant to vaccines.

WHO asks countries to strengthen monitoring and sequencing

How to prevent and control the new coronavirus variants? The World Health Organization has asked countries to strengthen monitoring and sequencing. It calls on countries to strengthen monitoring and sequencing of all still circulating new coronavirus variants, submit complete viral genome sequences and metadata to public databases, and report to the WHO initial cases or clusters of cases related to any variants of "cause for concern".

WHO also recommends international collaboration to better understand the various aspects of the impact of variants of "concern" through field investigations and laboratory evaluations.

At the same time, some countries are worried that this new mutant strain will trigger a new wave of fierce epidemics after the Delta strain. As of now, about 20 countries have successively issued or are preparing to introduce entry restrictions on flights and passengers from southern African countries.

The US government advises people not to travel to eight African countries

On November 27th local time, affected by the new coronavirus mutant strain Omicron, the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) raised the travel risk index of eight African countries, including South Africa, Zimbabwe, Namibia, Mozambique, Malawi, Lesotho, Swaziland and Botswana, to "Level 4", which means "very high".

On the same day, the US State Department also issued a warning to the public, advising against traveling to the above eight African countries.

Will Omicron's ability to spread be better than Delta's?

Here we have to rely more on experience and guesswork. Among the many mutations of Omicron's S protein, some of them are familiar to us, such as N501Y, K417N, and T478K (which appeared on Delta), which helped the mutant strain gain strong transmission ability. However, there are still many mutations at points that we are not familiar with. Whether they will have a significant impact on the virus's transmission ability requires further research.

Judging from the speed of spread in South Africa, Omicron may be more transmissible than Beta, but it is not certain whether it can reach the level of Delta. The answer will be known in the next few weeks.

Omicron has little effect on primary treatment drugs and tests.

Based on basic knowledge of virology and what we know about it so far, these two issues may not be much to worry about.

The drugs that may be affected by Omicron are monoclonal antibody drugs, but it will have almost no effect on oral small molecule antiviral drugs because small molecule antiviral drugs do not act on the S protein. This is like the influenza virus mutates every year and the vaccine is updated every year, but Oseltamivir remains effective.

It's just that Omicron is a potential threat to treatment. If it really spreads on a large scale, there will be a medical rush in a country or region, and many patients will not be able to get timely treatment. At this time, the rate of severe illness may rise rapidly. This phenomenon has occurred during the spread of the original strain and Delta.

In terms of detection, since one of the target sequences of nucleic acid detection is the relatively conserved ORF1a/b region of the new coronavirus, Omicron can still be tracked by nucleic acid detection, and there are currently specific nucleic acid tests that can directly detect Omicron, allowing us to quickly understand the spread of this variant.

Don't worry, some rumors are unbelievable.

The new variant was discovered by medical experts, who disclosed the information to comfort everyone not to worry. Many times, people only pay attention to the first half of the sentence and fall into the anxiety that the experts don't want to see.

For example, there are some rumors that have just appeared that there is a possibility that Omicron may hybridize with HIV and other viruses and be transmitted.

Omicron was first discovered in an HIV testing laboratory, and many experts have speculated that Omicron may have developed in HIV-infected people.

Virus mutations have no directionality. The more infections there are and the more special populations they infect, the more likely it is that some "new changes" that humans don't want to see will randomly appear.

But this does not mean that the new coronavirus mutant strain will fuse with the HIV virus to produce more explosive power and will not have the ability of the HIV virus.

There are also rumors that Omicron is so different from the new coronavirus that it can be called the "new coronavirus."

Omicron has a 99.8% nucleotide similarity to the original strain, has a clear lineage that can be traced, and can be easily identified by existing nucleic acid tests. There is no evidence that the serum of patients who have recovered from other new coronavirus variants (or vaccine recipients) is completely unable to neutralize Omicron. In other words, the safety of patients who have recovered from previous infections is still very high, and they are not facing a completely new opponent.

Omicron was quickly named by the WHO and upgraded to "worrying" because it showed signs of danger at a very early stage, but that does not mean that this is a huge change beyond control. Lambda and Mu, which were also named before, did not actually become popular.

Be prepared before threats come

Based on the information we have today, we cannot judge whether Omicron will become the main enemy of mankind in the future. Changes are common, but it is rare to become a relatively "perfect" Delta. Today, Delta strains are still the mainstream.

However, the signal of threat has already appeared. Many countries have quickly cut off flights from six African countries. In the future, as the threat becomes clearer, more countries may adopt the measures of the United Kingdom, and my country can also refer to them when the time is right.

Scientists urge "quick vaccination"

Toby Frick, an official of UNICEF in South Africa, said that South Africa currently has sufficient supply of COVID-19 vaccines, but how to increase the vaccination rate as soon as possible is a challenge. He hopes to collaborate with the South African Ministry of Health and local governments, and seek support from private enterprises to achieve this goal by coordinating cold chain transportation and setting up mobile vaccination sites.

Andrew Pollard, a British scientist who led the joint vaccine development between AstraZeneca and Oxford University, said that existing vaccines should be able to protect against the new strain , but the specific situation will not be clear until more research data is obtained in the next few weeks. He told the BBC on the 27th that he believed it was "extremely unlikely" that the new strain would repeat the rapid spread of the Delta strain, and believed that a vaccine against the new strain could be developed "very quickly."

German virologist Ulrike Protzer told German radio that the new strain may accelerate the spread of the new coronavirus and the public should get vaccine booster shots as soon as possible to increase antibody levels.

If my country adopts the American epidemic prevention strategy

The number of confirmed cases per day will exceed 630,000

Recently, the official website of the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention published a weekly report entitled "On Coexistence with COVID-19: Estimations and Perspectives". It predicts that if my country adopts the epidemic prevention and control strategies of Western countries such as the United States, Britain, Israel, Spain and France (these five countries are hereinafter referred to as "reference countries"), the number of new infections in my country will likely reach hundreds of thousands per day, of which about 10,000 will have severe symptoms, which will have a devastating impact on my country's medical system and cause a huge disaster in the country.

Among them, if the United States adopts the epidemic prevention strategy, the number of new cases in my country will exceed 630,000 per day; if the United Kingdom adopts the epidemic prevention strategy, the number of new cases in my country will exceed 270,000 per day.

It is worth noting that this prediction result is the lower limit of the number of cases. The article assumes that my country's population density and vaccination rate are the same as those of the reference country, and then predicts the results. In fact, when the article made the prediction, my country's full vaccination rate was about 55.04%, and the average vaccination rate of the reference country was 59.70%. my country's population density is 147 people/square kilometer, including Hebei, Shandong, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Fujian, Guangdong, Hainan, Beijing, Tianjin and Shanghai. The population density of provincial administrative regions is 661 people/square kilometer, and the average population density of the reference country is 185.94 people/square kilometer. Moreover, the eastern region of my country is seriously aging, and the vaccination rate of the elderly is low, and the infection rate and the proportion of severe illness will also be higher.

In addition, our country has a large population but a small number of cases, and the natural immunity rate is negligible, while the average number of confirmed cases in the reference country in 7 days is 44,525.6.

Therefore, the article points out that if our country adopts the pandemic response strategies and community activity models of the reference countries, the infection rate will be similar to that of these countries, while in reality, this rate should be much higher.

Zhong Nanshan's latest analysis

On November 27, Academician Zhong Nanshan said in a speech at the "Pay Attention to Indoor Environment and Build a Community with a Shared Future for Mankind for National Epidemic Prevention" Summit Forum that vaccination is definitely very effective. According to the latest data, the number of people in my country who have completed the full course of COVID-19 vaccination has accounted for 76.8% of the national population, laying a very good foundation for achieving the goal of more than 80% by the end of this year and achieving herd immunity.

Regarding the new variant virus recently detected in South Africa, Zhong Nanshan said that not much is known about the variant virus at present, but this virus carries a large number of mutations, which also poses more challenges to epidemic prevention work.

△Zhong Nanshan Xinhua News Agency file photo

Comprehensive sources: Xinhua News Agency, CCTV News Client, Guancha.com, Overseas Network, Wenhui Daily, People's Daily Health Client, Dongfang.com, Dingxiang Doctor, Weibo @Cover News, @CCTV Finance, etc.