1,400 earthquakes a day! Iceland's volcano is about to erupt. Will it "stir up" the global climate?

According to AFP, there has been a significant increase in seismic activity on the Reykjanes Peninsula in southwestern Iceland. Fearing that earthquakes could trigger a volcanic eruption, Iceland declared a state of emergency on the 11th local time. The Icelandic government is preparing for a possible volcanic eruption. Police urged residents in the relevant areas to evacuate.

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About 1,400 earthquakes occurred in 24 hours.

The Kingdom of Ice and Fire may face a double disaster

Iceland is located in the active volcanic belt of the Mid-Atlantic Ridge. There are 200-300 volcanoes in the country, of which 40-50 are active volcanoes. It is the country with the most volcanoes in Europe and can be described as the "Land of Ice and Fire".

Recently, earthquakes have been frequent in southwestern Iceland, and the risk of volcanic eruptions has increased. Over the past half month, hundreds of small earthquakes have occurred almost every day in the Reykjanes Peninsula in southwestern Iceland, and earthquakes have been particularly frequent in recent times. According to monitoring by the Icelandic Meteorological Office, about 1,400 earthquakes occurred in the Reykjanes Peninsula in the southwest of the country within 24 hours from November 8 to 9 local time. Although the magnitude of these earthquakes was below 3.0 and no casualties were caused, the psychological fear brought to local residents by the frequent earthquakes is immeasurable.

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According to the analysis of Gao Mengtan, a researcher at the Institute of Geophysics, China Earthquake Administration, this series of small earthquakes was caused by the upwelling of underground magma before the volcanic eruption, which led to increased stress concentration in the earth's crust. The frequent small earthquakes are a precursory reaction to a volcanic eruption, rather than a volcanic eruption caused by seismic activity.

According to the latest model prediction, volcanic magma is flowing in a 15-kilometer-long crack 800 meters underground outside the town of Grindavik. The Icelandic Meteorological Institute warned that a state of emergency has been declared in the area and lava may burst out of the ground at any time. Due to concerns that the earthquake would trigger a volcanic eruption, Iceland declared a state of emergency on November 11 local time, and the police urged residents in the relevant areas to evacuate.

The Chinese Embassy in Iceland has also issued the latest round of reminders, warning everyone to pay attention to earthquakes and volcanic activities in southern Iceland, be aware of the dangers of geological disasters such as falling rocks and landslides in the area, and try to avoid going to the Blue Lagoon, Iceland's Svartsengi Power Plant and several nearby hotels to stay away from danger.

Volcanic eruption, the earth's "cooling agent"?

Iceland's volcanic activity is mostly the result of multiple factors such as continental rifting, pressure caused by underground gas and magma, and pressure of glaciers on the volcanic surface. Since 2021, there have been three volcanic eruptions on the Reykjanes Peninsula in southwestern Iceland.

Although the first impression of a volcano is rolling magma and blazing flames, in fact, the heat directly erupted by ordinary volcanoes is very small and has almost no impact on the global climate. Meteorologists are concerned about the sulfur-containing gases it emits. These acidic gases are oxidized into sulfate aerosols, which spread around the world with atmospheric circulation and basically spread evenly around the world within a few months. The life cycle in the stratosphere can reach several years. By blocking solar radiation, it produces a "parasol effect", helping the earth reflect more sunlight and cool the surface.

Data shows that in 1783, the eruption of Iceland's Naki volcano caused an unusually cold winter in Europe from 1783 to 1784; in 1815, the eruption of Indonesia's Tambora volcano caused a serious climate disaster. The year after the eruption, the global average temperature dropped by about 0.4℃ to 0.7℃, and many areas in the northern hemisphere suffered a "year without summer"; in 1991, the eruption of the Philippines' Pinatubo volcano injected a large amount of aerosols into the stratosphere, and a few months later the global average temperature dropped by about 0.5℃... These famous volcanic eruptions have proved that volcanic eruptions are indeed associated with a drop in global temperatures.

In addition to lowering global temperatures, volcanic eruptions can also bring significant changes in rainfall in many parts of the world. Historically, many high-intensity, large-scale drought events have been associated with volcanic eruptions. After a volcanic eruption, the surface temperature drops, resulting in a decrease in water vapor, so on average, rainfall decreases. Studies have shown that monsoon regions around the world, including the Asian-Australian monsoon region, the American monsoon region, and the African monsoon region, will experience varying degrees of precipitation reduction within 1-2 years after a volcanic eruption, and drought events will increase in eastern and northern China and northern India. However, in order to determine the ultimate climate impact of this volcano, it is necessary to closely monitor its future activity trends.

In addition, volcanic eruptions may also trigger El Nino events, thereby affecting the global climate. Studies have found that volcanic eruptions increase the likelihood of El Nino events, and are also related to the state of the ocean before the eruption.

It is important to emphasize here that although volcanic eruptions can slow down the trend of global warming on paper, such violent disturbances can easily cause climate anomalies in local areas, which may intensify extreme weather , and their cooling effect is not long-lasting, so overall it may not be a good thing.

How far is the volcanic eruption from us?

You may think that volcanic eruptions are far away from us. But there are more volcanoes erupting every year than those we see in the news. From October to December 2022 alone, there were 67 volcanoes active around the world. The strongest was the huge Tonga volcano eruption at the beginning of last year, which triggered tsunami warnings in many countries. Some volcanoes are hidden deep under the sea and have not appeared for the time being. Some have volcanic activities almost every day; some volcanoes only last a few weeks or even days from the beginning to the end of the eruption. The latter are often more violent and destructive, and more difficult to predict.

The International Space Station passes over the eruption area of ​​Tonga. Source: NASA Live

There are also active volcanoes in China. Active volcanoes here refer to volcanoes that have erupted in the past 10,000 years (also known as Holocene volcanoes). The most famous ones include Wudalianchi Volcano and Jingpo Lake Volcano in Northeast China. Among them, the Changbai Mountain Volcano located on the China-North Korea border has the greatest potential for eruption, but it is currently in a dormant or dormant state, and there is no risk of eruption in the short term. And the main volcanoes are basically under strict monitoring, and any "slightest movement" will be notified at the first time. With the development of science and technology and the strengthening of monitoring capabilities, the corresponding research and judgment and early warning information release capabilities will also continue to increase.

If you are in a volcanic disaster area, please pay close attention to local news and information released by the civil defense department, take necessary safety measures, prepare for earthquakes, volcanoes and their secondary disasters, and avoid danger.

Comprehensive sources: Xinhua News Agency, CCTV News, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing Daily, Chinese Embassy in Iceland, etc.