The man next to Darwin invented weather forecasting

The winning works of the 2023 "China Science Popularization Star Creation Competition"

Author: Liu Shanshan and Zhou Xuecheng

Many years later, when The Origin of Species was published, Darwin would recall the days when he followed the Beagle around the world. During this time, he was deeply impressed by the distribution of South American organisms and the geological relationship between modern organisms and ancient organisms, and enlightened his understanding of the origin of species. The protagonist of today's story is the captain of the Beagle warship - Robert FitzRoy. This name may not be as well-known as Darwin in history, but his life is inseparable from science, navigation and weather forecasting. This gentleman from a British aristocratic family did not use his golden spoon to grab power and money, but became an indelible historical figure with his outstanding scientific contributions.

Portrait of Fitzroy Source: Wikipedia

In 1805, FitzRoy was born into an upper-class family in Ampton Hall, England. "The Jolly King" Charles II was his ancestor, the former British Prime Minister, the Duke of Grafton, was his grandfather, and the then Army Commander was his uncle. With such a prominent family background, FitzRoy's life trajectory should have been to receive a good education in an aristocratic school, then go to Cambridge or Oxford University, and then join politics and rise to prominence. But he "loved sailing more than the country", had no interest in the expectations of his family, but was full of expectations for the magnificent sea.

In 1817, at the age of 12, he resolutely entered the Royal Naval Academy of the United Kingdom and began to prepare to become a captain. The extremely talented man completed a number of courses including mathematics, classical literature, Newtonian mechanics, navigation, foreign languages, painting, swordsmanship, dance, etc. in just 20 months. He then joined the Royal Navy and cruised around with ships as an apprentice, and graduated a few years later with unprecedented double full marks.

After graduation, the intelligent and diligent Fitzroy soon met the call of the sea. In 1828, Captain Stokes of the Beagle committed suicide due to work pressure. Fitzroy took over as temporary captain. He set out with pride and longing, not knowing how his fate would unfold. He was only 23 years old that year.

His mission was to survey and measure the coasts of Patagonia, Tierra del Fuego and the Strait of Magellan. The long voyage was accompanied by endless loneliness and boredom. In order to prevent repeating the mistakes of the previous captain, he commissioned scientist Beaufort to find a private companion for him. Unexpectedly, this position was passed to the young Darwin after several twists and turns. Darwin was only 22 years old at the time. He had just graduated from college and spent his days "playing with insects, riding horses, hunting, and eating supper". He was far from showing the wisdom and perseverance of a founding father, but his abundant enthusiasm and understanding of plants still enabled him to get this position. After boarding the ship, the two got along quite well, complemented each other in work, surveyed the waterway together, collected specimens together, and were very busy.

Although the journey was no longer lonely with such company, it was still not an easy voyage. Icebergs, sepsis, biting cold, and daunting savages all made the group suffer. However, the most dangerous thing was the sudden change of the weather at sea. The sky was clear one second and dark clouds covered the city the next. The Pampero cold wind, St. Elmo's fire, Williwa squall, and the channel gale were all fatal. For example, in 1929, the ship encountered the bitter Pampero cold wind, and two sailors died on the spot. Although FitzRoy had equipped the ship with the most advanced meteorological instruments at the time, such as barometers, thermometers, and anemometers, it was still impossible to guarantee that he could always take the best course. However, through constant battles with bad weather, his research on meteorology became more and more in-depth. Later, he summed up his experience and published the "Barometer and Weather Manual", which laid the foundation for his meteorological career.

Cover of "Barometer and Weather Handbook" Image source: Google Books

In 1836, the Beagle completed its mission and returned home with honor. FitzRoy handed over 82 charts and 8 coastline maps to the British Admiralty. These detailed and accurate maps were extremely well drawn and were not gradually replaced until World War II. With this voyage, FitzRoy became famous. He not only won the highest honor of the Geographical Society, but was also appointed as the Governor-General of New Zealand. However, this was not a good job. At that time, New Zealand was not a prosperous land with cattle and sheep. As the second governor, FitzRoy had to work hard to open up the mountains and forests. Moreover, the local immigrants and the natives had reached the point where they were incompatible. The immigrants had organized leaders, influential newspapers, and support from their hometowns in Britain. But the natives were weak and the situation was obviously passive. However, FitzRoy did not succumb to the strength of the immigrants. He vigorously promoted the concept of equality for all, advocating that both immigrants and natives had equal land rights. If the government did not provide funding, he would even pay out of his own pocket to implement policies.

As you can imagine, in that era of colonial expansion, such equal rights policies would not be supported by the British government, and he was recalled by the authorities not long after. This journey did not bring FitzRoy political achievements, but he became penniless because he spent too much money out of his own pocket. At this time, the British Meteorological Department was established. His good friend Darwin knew the meteorological knowledge he had accumulated during the voyage and invited him to serve as the head of the department. This invitation truly opened FitzRoy's meteorological career and also opened the door to the weather forecast business.

The newly established meteorological department was short-staffed, and FitzRoy had only three people under him. Although the department was small, the responsibilities were not small! They had to compile a large amount of meteorological data recorded by ships, calculate the typical wind direction, temperature and other meteorological factors on the route every month, and find the right route. But FitzRoy found that doing just this was still far from enough.

On August 26, 1859, the Royal Charter, carrying 500 gold diggers, set out from Melbourne, Australia, to Liverpool, England. On the same ship were gold worth at least 770 million pounds. These adventurers gained huge wealth and set off on their journey home with great expectations. Before boarding the ship, a sailor on the ship sent a letter to his mother, which read: Mother, please pray for a favorable wind for me, and I will blow the whistle for the wind. However, the favorable wind he expected came to an abrupt end when the journey was near the end. On October 25, the penultimate day of the journey, the air pressure at sea dropped sharply, the air became cold, and the sea fog was filled. Captain Taylor, who lacked meteorological knowledge, ordered to continue moving forward, but he just drove into the center of the storm. In fact, as long as the captain saw the low pressure shown on the barometer and read the "Barometer and Weather Manual" written by Fitzroy, he would know that in this case, sailing to the left would keep him away from the center of the storm.

However, there are no ifs in reality. The storm lasted for three days, and 133 ships including the Royal Charter sank, and 800 people died. Because the Royal Charter suffered the most serious losses, the wind was called the Royal Charter.

The disaster shocked the British public, including Fitzroy, and they knew that something had to be done.

In fact, FitzRoy had proposed long ago: "Every ship should conduct weather observations and warnings." However, many captains did not know how to install instruments and collect data, let alone how to analyze weather data. After thinking hard, FitzRoy came up with a new idea. That is, instead of expecting every captain to be proficient in meteorology, it is better to let people who understand meteorology pay attention to the weather at all times and then publicize the weather information. Following this line of thought, he decided to do something that no one had done before. He wanted to issue storm warnings and weather forecasts.

Predicting the weather sounds like a fantasy. In the past, people could only peek into the secrets of heaven through the vague scenes in the wizard's crystal ball and the wizard's vague interpretation, and guess when the next storm would occur. At this time, FitzRoy hoped to use his many years of sailing experience and the meteorological laws he discovered when he was the head of the Meteorological Office to truly scientifically predict the weather. On February 6, 1861, he issued the first storm warning for the European coastline and transmitted it by telegraph. This warning was very timely and saved many ships from the ravages of the storm. On August 1, 1861, a small column was opened in an inconspicuous place in the lower left corner of The Times, titled Weather Overview for the Next Two Days. The content was:

Northern region: light westerly wind, sunny.

Western region: light southerly wind, sunny.

Southern region: strong westerly wind, sunny.

The first draft of the weather forecast Source: metoffice.gov.uk

This was the first official weather forecast in human history. It opened the door to meteorology for the general public. From businessmen planning to go on a business trip to London to families preparing to go on vacation at the seaside, more and more people began to pay attention to and understand the weather. Weather forecasts also became a curiosity in the Victorian era. Even on a Sunday morning, the Queen's messenger knocked on FitzRoy's door to ask him about the weather for the next day to help the Queen decide whether to go to the Isle of Wight the next day.

If the voyage of the Beagle made FitzRoy realize the high spirits of being successful at a young age, and the failure in New Zealand made him taste the uncertainty of fate, then the successful release of the weather forecast can be said to be another highlight of his life after he had washed away all the dust.

However, behind the glamour, troubles also ensued.

First of all, weather forecasts. Even in modern times, weather forecasts are often criticized by the public for forecast errors, and the situation more than a hundred years ago can be imagined. On the one hand, the public constantly complained that FitzRoy's weather forecasts were not accurate enough, and the companies preparing to carry out weather forecasts also took advantage of the situation and spread his rumors; on the other hand, at that time, meteorological theories were flourishing and there was no unified theory. The theory used by FitzRoy to forecast the weather was not generally recognized by the scientific community. Faced with these, he could only work day and night and work harder, and during this period he also squeezed out time to write the highly acclaimed "Handbook of Meteorology".

Cover of "Handbook of Meteorology" Source: Google Books

However, these efforts did not bring good results. The government cut the budget of the meteorological department. The Times, which published weather forecasts, began to have articles mocking his forecasts, which made him feel under great pressure. At the same time, years of work broke his body. He had traveled through the mountains of Tierra del Fuego, and in the eyes of his friends, he was "exhausted and emaciated". He had to stop working and go to the suburbs for vacation. His financial situation was also very bad. Although his department received a large amount of funding every year, he used it to build a weather station and improve weather forecasts. Bipolar disorder also tortured him all the time. In his later years, he often hovered on the edge of collapse. This is not over yet. In the year when the Royal Charter was in distress, his old friend and comrade-in-arms Darwin on the Beagle published "The Origin of Species", which directly denied the creationism in the Bible. This undoubtedly hit FitzRoy, a devout Christian, deeply. When Huxley and Bishop Wilbur had a big debate on evolution in Oxford, not many people knew that FitzRoy was also present. He held the Bible high and claimed that "the Bible is the unquestionable truth", but people just regarded him as a madman.

Finally, in the spring of 1865, before the warm spring breeze blew into the British Isles, FitzRoy, exhausted physically and mentally, cut his throat with a razor and left forever. We have no way of knowing what the last straw that broke the camel's back was, but we only know that he issued his last weather forecast the day before he left:

April 29, London, thunderstorm.

After his death, the government suspended storm warnings and weather forecasts, and immediately received a large number of complaints from fishermen and citizens. Later statistics also showed that 75% of the warnings issued by FitzRoy were confirmed. But he could not see them.

His life was not a lucky one. As a Christian, his voyage around the world eventually undermined the authority of the Bible; as a gentleman, he promoted the principle of equality for all in New Zealand, but was dismissed by the authorities; as the head of the meteorological department, he spent a lot of energy issuing storm warnings and weather forecasts, which were obviously very useful but were not understood because they were too advanced.

But people will never forget his contribution. Although his forecasts were not theoretical enough at that time, his ideas inspired countless meteorologists. Later generations followed in his footsteps, constantly improving meteorological theories, and eventually, with the help of computers, we got the weather forecasts we see today. When the International Meteorological Organization was established in 1878, it immediately recognized FitzRoy as the founder of weather forecasting and the master of meteorology. In 2002, in order to express his respect and remembrance, the BBC's marine weather forecast radio station renamed the Finistère area to the FitzRoy area.

BBC marine weather forecast area map . The FitzRoy area in the lower left corner is the area renamed in memory of FitzRoy. Source: bbc.com

Robert FitzRoy, a pioneer in weather forecasting, eventually gained people's respect and admiration.