There is a 71% probability that "La Niña" will return. Is another unprecedentedly cold winter waiting for us?

What? Another extreme weather event is coming?!

2024 is destined to be another extraordinary year. At the end of August and the beginning of September, the extreme weather with temperatures exceeding 40℃ in Jiangxi, Chengdu and other places still made people feel scared. Now that autumn is getting deeper, a piece of news came out of the blue: the third-generation practical meteorological observation satellite of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration of the United States released the latest forecast, and there is a 71% probability of the return of "La Niña" this year. What does this mean? It means that another unprecedented cold winter is waiting for us in the near future!

El Nino? La Nina? Don't be confused

When hearing that "La Nina" is coming, I believe many people will instantly think of the name they have come across a long time ago: "El Nino". "El Nino" and "La Nina" sound like a pair of "twin brothers and sisters", but in fact they are two completely different climate phenomena.

"El Nino", which means "little boy" in Spanish, refers to the abnormally warm sea surface temperature in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean. This phenomenon usually reaches its peak around Christmas, hence the name "Christ Child". When El Nino occurs, it will cause changes in global climate patterns, such as reduced rainfall in Southeast Asia and heavy rains and floods on the west coast of South America.

La Nina, which means "little girl" in Spanish, is the opposite of El Nino and refers to the phenomenon of abnormally cold sea surface temperatures in the same region. La Nina usually brings more complex and changeable climate impacts, such as more rainfall in Australia and Southeast Asia, and drought in the southern United States and southern Africa.

The two phenomena of "El Nino" and "La Nina" have opposite effects, so people simply understand them as a matter of heat and cold, which is actually understandable. Generally, "El Nino" and "La Nina" appear alternately to maintain the balance of the earth's climate environment. However, since the Industrial Revolution, everyone knows that the earth has experienced a greenhouse effect, and the situation has become increasingly serious since the 21st century. As the earth's climate began to become unbalanced, the alternation of "El Nino" and "La Nina" has become irregular. They are also one of the root causes of climate disturbances.

El Nino and La Nina are like twin brothers and sisters

For 2024, the world has just experienced the impact of "El Nino" in the first half of the year, which has caused the world's average temperature to continue to refresh. Although "El Nino" disappeared in the second half of the year, its chain reaction is still in effect, so that the development of high temperatures is still continuing. This is the "culprit" for the extremely hot phenomena in Jiangxi, Chengdu and other places in August and September.

Data show that the global average surface temperature in August this year was 16.82℃, 1.51℃ higher than the pre-industrial level (1850-1900). This August was the 13th month in the past 14 months when the global average surface temperature exceeded the pre-industrial level by 1.5℃. The global average temperature in the past 12 months was the highest level in any 12-month period on record, 1.64℃ higher than the pre-industrial average temperature.

The aftermath of El Nino has not yet faded, and La Nina is catching up again. According to the new round of warnings issued by the World Meteorological Organization, from September to November this year, the probability of the current neutral state (neither El Nino nor La Nina) turning into La Nina is 55%. From October this year to February 2025, this probability increases to 60%. During this period, the possibility of El Nino reappearing is negligible, that is, only La Nina is likely to occur.

In addition to the World Meteorological Organization's forecast, the data from the third generation of operational meteorological observation satellites of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration of the United States is even higher, believing that the probability of the "La Nina" phenomenon will appear from September to November is 71%, and it is expected to last throughout the winter in the northern hemisphere, and weak "La Nina" is the most likely scenario. Both believe that "La Nina" is about to return, which means there is little room for change.

“La Niña” appears, is the extreme cold winter certain?

Once "La Niña" appears, cold weather will become a trend. So will there be extremely cold winter conditions?

Will extreme cold weather occur?

Generally speaking, when the "La Niña" phenomenon occurs, cold air activities in my country will be more frequent in winter, resulting in lower temperatures in most areas than in the same period of previous years. Historically, some of the extreme cold weather encountered in my country is indeed inseparable from "La Niña". For example, the severe low temperature, rain, snow and freezing disasters in the south in 2008, and the extremely cold weather in the northeast region in early 2023, the temperature in some parts of Heilongjiang even dropped to -50℃, all of which are related to "her". Scientists have analyzed 15 "La Niña" events since 1951 and found that there were 10 "La Niña years" with low winter temperatures in my country, and 5 "La Niña years" with high temperatures. In the "La Niña year", the probability of a cold winter in my country is twice the probability of a warm winter.

Not long ago, the south of my country was still experiencing high temperatures, but the north has already experienced a drop in temperature. Inner Mongolia and Xinjiang have also seen unusual heavy snowstorms, which has caused many people to worry that this year's cold wave may arrive early. However, according to current forecasts, the first large-scale cold air this year will affect my country after September 21, but whether it will really bring a cold wave still needs further observation. After all, it is still autumn, and the situation in winter depends on the next changes.

You know, there are many factors that affect my country's winter climate, in addition to "La Nina", there are also atmospheric circulation, Arctic sea ice, East Asian monsoon, Eurasian snow, etc. Moreover, in the context of global warming, even if "La Nina" brings a cold wave, it is unlikely to last the entire winter, and it may only be extremely cold weather for a short period of time.

So everyone should keep a calm mind. Whether the extreme cold wave comes or not, we should be prepared for all changes. We should always pay attention to the weather forecast, arrange production and life reasonably, and do a good job of cold prevention and warmth. After all, the warmth and safety of ourselves and our families are the most important.