Strong cold front is coming! Will this year be a warm winter or a cold winter? The latest analysis from the National Climate Center →

According to the Central Meteorological Observatory, from the 3rd to the 5th, a new wave of strong cold air will begin to affect my country. The temperature in the areas north of the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River will drop by 6 to 10°C, and the local temperature in central Inner Mongolia, northern North China, southern Northeast China, etc. may drop by up to 12°C. There will be strong winds of 4 to 6 levels, with gusts of 7 to 9 levels, and strong winds of 7 to 8 levels, with gusts of 9 to 10 levels, in the central and eastern Inner Mongolia, North China, Huanghuai, central and southern Northeast China, etc.

Will this year be a warm winter or a cold winter?

National Climate Center

Recently, many parts of China have started cooling down. People have felt the breath of winter in late autumn and are discussing whether a cold winter is coming. The hot discussion about the cold winter is inseparable from the "behind-the-scenes pusher" La Nina. As early as September this year, the World Meteorological Organization predicted that La Nina is ready to "return" in autumn . Many people believe that the emergence of La Nina means that winter will become colder and even bring super cold waves, but can La Nina be completely equated with a cold winter? What impact does it have on climate change?

La Nina refers to abnormally low sea surface temperatures in a large area of ​​the equatorial central and eastern Pacific Ocean, which is 0.5°C lower than normal for six consecutive months . Its occurrence is often accompanied by changes in tropical atmospheric circulation, such as changes in wind, air pressure and precipitation. In contrast to the El Nino phenomenon, La Nina has a relatively short-term cooling effect on the global climate.

According to statistics, there have been 15 La Niña events since 1951. Before 1986, the winters in China were all cold when La Niña events occurred. However, against the background of global warming, the frequency of warm winters in La Niña events has increased since 1986.

La Nina does not actually mean a cold winter. Whether China's winter is colder or warmer is closely related to the strength of the East Asian winter monsoon, and Arctic sea ice and Eurasian snow also play an important role . However, according to statistics, after the emergence of La Nina, China's winter is more likely to be colder. Since this year's La Nina may be a weaker event, it remains to be seen to what extent it will affect the temperature this winter.

In terms of frequency, El Niño occurs irregularly, about every two to seven years, and usually matures and decays quickly within a year. La Niña is usually weaker than El Niño, but lasts longer, usually about 9-12 months, and some can even last more than two years, which is called a multi-year period. The first "triple" La Niña event of the 21st century occurred from 2020 to 2023.

National Climate Center forecast↓↓

The frequency of La Niña occurrences may increase in the future

From a global perspective, La Niña is not a high-probability event. In the past 100 years, there have been 20 La Niña events worldwide, 10 of which were one-year events and 10 were multi-year events. But it is worth noting that multi-year La Niña events are indeed happening more and more frequently : since the beginning of the 21st century, there have been 5 multi-year La Niña events worldwide.

Multi-year La Niña events, which correspond to stronger sea temperature anomalies, often bring persistent and cumulative destructive impacts on the global climate, environment, economy and society, and significantly increase the risk of extreme weather disasters. These observational facts reveal the current accelerating trend of multi-year La Niña events.

This winter is prone to periodic severe temperature drops and heavy snowfall

The National Climate Center predicts that China is more likely to experience periods of severe cooling and heavy snowfall this autumn and winter.

It is recommended that the agricultural and rural departments strengthen the prevention of frost damage, snow disasters and strong wind disasters in facility agriculture and animal husbandry;

The transportation department should prepare a risk plan for low temperature, heavy snow and strong wind disasters;

Relevant regions and departments should promptly carry out maintenance and repair work such as equipment de-icing and road snow removal based on disaster monitoring and early warning information.

Source: People's Daily Comprehensive Central Meteorological Observatory, CCTV News Client