Rereading "Remembering Roland Templeton"

In the 1979 bear market, Business Week wrote: "Stocks are dead, and it looks almost certain that they are dead!" At this time, Laruen C. Templeton started buying.

1. When choosing affordable stocks, you should use several of the "100 Value Scales", not just one. If you only use one method, it will fail after a while or even for several years. (This is obviously inconsistent with the concept of value investment and long-term investment, but is more in line with cyclical theory and psychological characteristics. September 25, 2009: Actually, I was wrong. I confused investment philosophy and investment method.)

2. Using multiple methods can at least confirm your findings and increase your confidence in holding shares when stock prices fluctuate.

3. Doing more research on the competitor companies whose stocks you are buying will help you get twice the result with half the effort.

4. There are many acquisitions among peers, especially at a premium, which should be an opportunity to buy and increase holdings.

5. When a company repurchases its shares, especially when it does so sincerely and not to prove something to others, it is also a good time to buy.

6. Never fall in love with a company, only fall in love with its stocks.

7. Shopping malls are crowded when they have discounts, but deserted when stocks have discounts. Who is more rational, investors or shoppers?

8. Compared with 1932, although the PB is similar, the former is inflationary while the latter is deflationary, so in terms of capital replacement, the former may be cheaper.

This round of economic and stock bull market, which started in the 1980s, was based on the foundation of the previous bear market. The direct driving force was electronic technology, which was later extended to semiconductors, computers, networks and other new economic and high-tech fields. However, there was no bubble in the above industries themselves until they were targeted by capital. Capital changed the industry development model and competition rules, which promoted industrial development on the one hand and led to the bubble of these industries on the other hand. These industries reached their peak in 2000 and declined, but did not affect traditional industries. Capital successfully extended its tentacles to traditional industries through strategic transfer and brought some industries and enterprises in these old economies to remarkable peaks. After that, there was excessive prosperity and decline, which triggered a financial crisis in the capital industry and eventually evolved into an economic crisis for the whole world and the whole industry.

These are all "hindsight", but is it possible to gain insight into the possible outlines of the next economic development cycle from the above analysis and logic?

As a winner of Toutiao's Qingyun Plan and Baijiahao's Bai+ Plan, the 2019 Baidu Digital Author of the Year, the Baijiahao's Most Popular Author in the Technology Field, the 2019 Sogou Technology and Culture Author, and the 2021 Baijiahao Quarterly Influential Creator, he has won many awards, including the 2013 Sohu Best Industry Media Person, the 2015 China New Media Entrepreneurship Competition Beijing Third Place, the 2015 Guangmang Experience Award, the 2015 China New Media Entrepreneurship Competition Finals Third Place, and the 2018 Baidu Dynamic Annual Powerful Celebrity.