Lao Duan said: Modular TV is a disruptive opportunity

Everyone knows that it is the smart phone that has changed the mobile phone industry, and that is why Steve Jobs reinvented the mobile phone. But it is undeniable that the transformation from durable consumer goods to fashionable fast-moving consumer goods is one of the essential reasons for the explosion of the smartphone industry. Now people replace their mobile phones every ten months, and the replacement cycle is much lower than before (Duan also believes that as screen technology develops and user experience is getting closer and closer to the ceiling, while the CPU is still far from this ceiling, so mobile phone modularization may also be one of the future trends).

The same is true for television, whether it is OTT or playing games. If the television is always the big furniture that will only be replaced every seven or eight years, then the development of the television industry will continue to be constrained by the scale ceiling. More than 70% of the cost of a television is the screen, and the screen is almost monopolized worldwide. Technological innovation and product upgrades are very slow, and the use and update time of the screen is also very long, an average of seven or eight years. But the heart of the TV, the CPU chip, is replaced very quickly now. At the beginning of last year, it was single-core, at the end of last year it was dual-core, and now the mainstream is already quad-core, and a new generation of chips is updated almost every six months to a year. Therefore, to solve the problem of matching the screen and the chip, TV modularization is one of the best options.

Because TVs are modular, they can be upgraded. The cost of chips and peripheral accessories for a TV that costs several thousand yuan is less than 200 yuan, which is lower than a set-top box of the same grade. Therefore, modularization can update a TV that costs more than 3,000 yuan at a cost of less than 200 yuan each time within the 7-8 year TV screen life cycle, so that its chip can match the latest TV applications and games. This is only the value on the user side. For the TV industry, it will also greatly simplify the production process of TVs. At present, TV manufacturers manage hardware, software, and intelligence together. If the CPU and peripheral accessories and screens can be completely separated from procurement, production, testing, logistics, and marketing at the TCON and BRIDGE levels, this will greatly simplify the management system of TV manufacturers and reduce various costs. Moreover, if the interface is further standardized, the TV will only be left with a screen + box. The box can be updated quickly and freely, and a large number of third-party companies can produce and market the box.

Modularization is not over yet. One of the hottest topics in the market is Internet TV. The modularization of TV can greatly accelerate and enhance the development of Internet TV business, just like the sharp price reduction of set-top boxes promoted the overall shift of digital TV. Because, after TV changes from an independent hardware device to an operational network terminal, cost is crucial. After the modularization of TV, the user unit cost of Internet-based operation of TV will change from a TV of several thousand yuan to a set-top box of less than 200 yuan, and TV companies can also operate TV Internet business at low cost. This will greatly activate this market, greatly improve the efficiency of the TV industry chain, and greatly reduce costs. The TV industry will become a screen production industry that does not need to be operated and an operational low-cost hardware set-top box industry. Continue to imagine and look forward. In the future, there will be boxes with different performances corresponding to one screen, boxes for different operators, and boxes for different applications in the market. For operators, SPs and even CPs, they can just bind a very cheap box, so that the landing cost of operation will be greatly reduced. The current cost of installation, downloading and use is very high. Moreover, as the requirements of operators and SPs for system performance are getting higher and higher, they do not need to replace the TV sets when replacing them, but only the boxes. In addition, TV or screen companies can also share the operating profits of these boxes and services.

But modularization seems easy, but it is actually very difficult. Haier promoted modular TV four years ago, which should be the pioneer of modular TV. It still occupies the Baidu Encyclopedia entry of modular TV. However, because it did not adopt the open and easy-to-open Android system at that time, it was difficult to transplant applications. Another thing is cost. One of the benefits of modular TV is to reduce costs. However, if the current solution is adopted, in fact, the cost added in screen testing and production, box matching, interface and other links is too large. Modular TV not only does not reduce costs, but increases costs, which is completely contrary to the original intention of modular TV. Modular TV is a matter of the entire industrial chain. It is necessary to integrate chip definition, TV design, production, marketing, and operation to produce modular and upgradeable TVs that users like, manufacturers welcome, and the market accepts. At present, TV manufacturers are facing a protracted Internet movement. Whether it is active innovation or passive revolution, it has created a very good market atmosphere for modular TV. Therefore, I think the time is almost ripe, and modular TV will bring subversive opportunities to these manufacturers who are the first to try it.

As a winner of Toutiao's Qingyun Plan and Baijiahao's Bai+ Plan, the 2019 Baidu Digital Author of the Year, the Baijiahao's Most Popular Author in the Technology Field, the 2019 Sogou Technology and Culture Author, and the 2021 Baijiahao Quarterly Influential Creator, he has won many awards, including the 2013 Sohu Best Industry Media Person, the 2015 China New Media Entrepreneurship Competition Beijing Third Place, the 2015 Guangmang Experience Award, the 2015 China New Media Entrepreneurship Competition Finals Third Place, and the 2018 Baidu Dynamic Annual Powerful Celebrity.