Is it to save the entire film market, or to save domestic films?

In December 2014, the Lunar New Year box office suddenly reversed, and the market downturn caught many people off guard. In fact, the market has reached a turning point, and the extensive growth model of several consecutive years has come to an end. As we all know, due to the protection policy of domestic films, imported blockbusters were driven out of the Lunar New Year box office.

The Lunar New Year box office is sluggish because of the absence of imported blockbusters

In the past few years, there were no imported blockbusters during the Lunar New Year period, but the market was still hot. The film market benefited from the growth of theaters and the increase of new audiences. But in 2014, it finally reached a critical point and the dividend disappeared. Without imported blockbusters, some audiences simply did not go to the cinema. Because domestic films could not support the overall situation alone, the downturn during the Lunar New Year period was inevitable.

The market has changed, but many people haven't noticed it and are still optimistic that the market will continue to grow at a high speed. Some even think that my "market turning point theory" is alarmist and that market ups and downs are normal and there is no need to be too anxious. In fact, this turning point is very different from ordinary market fluctuations! It is a trend. So I just discovered this phenomenon, not that I fooled it out. In layman's terms, I discovered that an avalanche is about to break out, and called on everyone to be on guard. Trends, like an avalanche, any person or force that is unwilling to change will be destroyed in the face of an avalanche and marginalized by the market.

No one can beat the trend!

China may not have the chance to reach 40,000 screens like the United States.

Today, cinemas are already oversupplied, with an average attendance rate of less than 15% nationwide, while the US is around 30%. We cannot simply infer that the US has 40,000 screens and China only has 20,000, so the number can at least double. China may not have the opportunity to reach 40,000 screens like the US, as it was revolutionized by new technologies halfway through.

Now the global film industry is being impacted by new forms of entertainment, such as games, mobile Internet, travel, KTV, fast hotels, etc. At least the North American box office has begun to stagnate. In fact, the biggest impact on movie theaters is the Internet. Audiences can watch movies on their mobile phones, computers, and home theaters, and no longer have to go to the cinema as before.

Secondly, there is insufficient audience demand. The mainstream movie audience has changed, and their demands have also changed, but the supply of domestic films has not responded quickly, and a large number of film types that are not suitable for young audiences are still being produced.

Specifically, in the following aspects: 1. In recent years, more and more young audiences aged 14 or 15 (post-00s) have been added and become the main force of movie-watching. They are not interested in the types of movies that were previously shown to middle-aged audiences. 2. The appreciation level of young audiences around 20 years old (post-90s) is improving. After being enlightened by domestic films in recent years, they quickly fell into the arms of Hollywood blockbusters. 3. Online ticket sales have weakened the role of the schedule, and the Lunar New Year schedule has become a third-rate schedule after the summer and Spring Festival schedules. In fact, the average schedule is a sign of market maturity!

Cinemas may face a wave of closures in the next few years

In fact, in the past two years, with the bursting of the national real estate bubble, cinemas have lost their blood transfusion mechanism. Most cinema chains will be on the verge of losses, especially those cinema chains that rely on renting houses. Box office revenue alone cannot support the high rent and labor costs, so if there are not enough excellent film sources, so many cinema chains will face a wave of closures! The cinemas in non-core business districts are the most affected, and the attendance rate is pitifully low, especially during the daytime, there are often only one or two viewers in the entire theater.

There is a serious oversupply of movie theaters, but a shortage of high-quality movie content. The quality of domestic films is improving much slower than the audience's appreciation level, while the supply of high-quality imported blockbusters is strictly limited, and good schedules are not available. Currently, there are only 34 blockbuster films and 20 batch films in China each year. In the case of a scarce economy, interest groups can enjoy the benefits of this monopoly. This may be a good thing for the box office protection of domestic films, but it hurts the market and the audience's right to choose. It is definitely a disaster for commercial theaters!

In the past few years, when the film market was booming, this problem could be covered up, but once there was an oversupply of theaters, the problem was exposed all of a sudden. Especially in 2014, even the Lunar New Year period was severely depressed! Without blockbusters, audiences will stay away from theaters and even stay away from watching movies. A movie's competitor is not other movies, but it has to compete directly with the audience's leisure time. The audience does not necessarily have to go to the movies, they need more fun entertainment methods.

Is it to save the entire film market, or to save domestic films?

The Chinese government faces a question regarding its policy choices: should it save the entire film market or save domestic films?

The film market is like a big shopping mall. You can't just drive out foreign brands like Carrefour, McDonald's, and KFC so that domestic supermarkets and restaurants can do better business. Without these foreign brands, consumers simply won't go shopping in this mall, and the popularity of the entire business district will suddenly decline.

Moreover, it is a habit for consumers to go shopping in a shopping district. The more they go there, the more they get used to it. The less they go there, the less likely they are to go there. Watching movies is also a habit. If you become a heavy movie fan, you will become addicted. The more you watch, the more you will go to watch. It is just like listening to music, playing games, and using digital products. On the contrary, if you don't go there for a while, you will become fickle and focus your interest on other things.

Once the supply of the film market is artificially distorted, it will naturally lead to a decline in the audience's demand for watching movies. Watching movies is not a rigid demand, but just one of the many entertainment methods for young people today. Others such as games and KTV are far more fun and exciting than movies. If domestic films must be protected, the first thing that will be harmed is the real economy, and cinemas will face a wave of closures! In fact, the cinemas should be saved the most. If you still want to protect domestic films as before, it will only drag the entire film market down with it.

Just like Chiang Kai-shek’s famous saying: Fight corruption and the party will perish; don’t fight corruption and the country will perish. The current film industry is also facing this dilemma: if it is not protected, domestic films will be marginalized; if it is protected, the entire film market will be marginalized.

In fact, the film protection system is not good for domestic films, because it makes domestic films less enterprising and never grow up. It is just like the monopoly of the automobile industry. After so many years of nurturing, it is still a low-energy giant baby. In fact, this problem is also very obvious in the television industry. Once the government restricts TV stations, young viewers simply stop watching TV and go to the Internet, which accelerates the disappearance of TV stations.

Therefore, if the import of imported blockbusters is not allowed, thousands of cinemas across the country will face the dilemma of insufficient demand in the next three years, and the quota system will expose the damage it has brought to the film industry. It will not be until 2017 that China's import quota for blockbusters will be renegotiated. At that time, the quota may be relaxed or lifted, which will ease the profit pressure of cinema chains.

But there are still three years until 2017. How many cinemas can survive these three years?

As a winner of Toutiao's Qingyun Plan and Baijiahao's Bai+ Plan, the 2019 Baidu Digital Author of the Year, the Baijiahao's Most Popular Author in the Technology Field, the 2019 Sogou Technology and Culture Author, and the 2021 Baijiahao Quarterly Influential Creator, he has won many awards, including the 2013 Sohu Best Industry Media Person, the 2015 China New Media Entrepreneurship Competition Beijing Third Place, the 2015 Guangmang Experience Award, the 2015 China New Media Entrepreneurship Competition Finals Third Place, and the 2018 Baidu Dynamic Annual Powerful Celebrity.