Television stations that rely only on traditional channels are doomed to fail

The topic "Five reasons why you won't watch TV in 10 years" on the American news website BuzzFeed explains the reasons through changes in the way online news and entertainment programs are created, searched and consumed, which often foreshadow changes in the way video programs are created, searched and consumed.

How will the TV industry develop in the next 10 years? TV equipment will be larger and clearer, the concept of traditional TV will disappear, everyone can become their own TV station, and the IP distribution industry will be the first to undergo changes...

It is almost impossible to predict the development of the next ten years, because the development of technology is nonlinear and unpredictable. The process of technological development is full of discontinuity, randomness and innovation, which cannot be foreseen by any existing inference method. And all current predictions about the future are wrong, just statements of the status quo. For example, TV screens will become larger and larger, the clarity will be higher and higher, and all programs will be broadcast over the Internet. But these are already existing facts.

In fact, TV hardware is the only thing that is predictable. TV hardware is updated every seven years, and it is very likely that the TV you have now or the TV you buy in the next few years will be popular in 2025. It sounds incredible. So when did you buy the TV you are using now? Five or seven years ago? In the past few years, except for the changes in screen size and resolution, TVs have not changed much.

After talking about hardware, let’s talk about content. The topic “Five Reasons Why You Won’t Watch TV in 10 Years” on the American news website BuzzFeed explains the reasons through changes in the way we create, search for and consume online news and entertainment programs, which usually foreshadow changes in the way we create, search for and consume video programs.

So, in the future we'll have bigger, clearer TVs, but that's not what people are really interested in.

The more fundamental changes are of more interest:

1. Channels as we know them will become obsolete

The concept of a TV station will change. In 10 years, the current concept of a channel will be dead. Any TV station that relies only on traditional channels to distribute content will be dead. It is important to note that I did not say that live events will die, I mean that the mass-market serial dramas broadcast by traditional TV channels will be replaced by customized content.

2. Channels are everywhere, and everyone can have their own channel

For those who miss the news, multi-channel networks (MCNs) are the new way to get news. Basically, in the future, everyone can be a TV station - no expensive equipment, studio or output equipment is needed. All you need is a group of talented program producers to package their programs and publish them to the ever-increasing YouTube channels or multi-channel networks, and this is the birth of a channel.

There will be tens of thousands of packages or channels, and the companies with the most subscribers will be more valuable than the TV stations today. Unless the TV stations also get involved and become the new multichannel networks, that’s fine for the TV stations, as long as they define success as reaching people in new ways, not by the outdated concept of channels.

3. No longer receive TV signals through an antenna

Broadcast standards are updated too slowly. When TV stations are discussing future standards, the network has already changed the standard. You only need a free software to watch programs without updating hardware. Therefore, the IP distribution industry will be the first to change. TV manufacturers know this, and if you understand the thinking of TV manufacturers, you will understand that in the future, network ports will be more important than antennas.

4. TV stations are more like Internet service providers

Internet service providers do not have their own content, they do not commission content, and they do not participate in advertising revenue, but they can make money, and the profits are very high. Therefore, TV stations need to consider whether they can compete with financially powerful technology companies and online media companies in content, or adjust their business model to make money by distributing other people's content.

5. Studios will become distributors

Most consumers have never heard of Shine, Endemol or FremantleMedia. This is because these companies sell programs directly to TV stations, and TV stations package the programs directly under their own names. But once the time is right, these studios that produce content will become new channels. Of course, this is a new form of channel.

So, will you still watch TV in 10 years? Obviously you will watch TV on giant ultra-thin screens and mobile phones. But the content producers, aggregators, packagers and distributors will be different from what they are today. Although we will still call it "TV", the concept of TV will be different from what we understand today.

As a winner of Toutiao's Qingyun Plan and Baijiahao's Bai+ Plan, the 2019 Baidu Digital Author of the Year, the Baijiahao's Most Popular Author in the Technology Field, the 2019 Sogou Technology and Culture Author, and the 2021 Baijiahao Quarterly Influential Creator, he has won many awards, including the 2013 Sohu Best Industry Media Person, the 2015 China New Media Entrepreneurship Competition Beijing Third Place, the 2015 Guangmang Experience Award, the 2015 China New Media Entrepreneurship Competition Finals Third Place, and the 2018 Baidu Dynamic Annual Powerful Celebrity.