10 predictions for video games in 2016

2015 is aptly called the first year of Chinese TV games. The production of TV games soared from more than 10 in 2014 to 60 in 2015, the channels of TV games were refined from more than 100 at the beginning of the year to more than 10, and the monthly income of a single game soared from 0 at the beginning of the year to more than 100,000 or 200,000 by the end of the year. There are many signs that Chinese TV games have taken root like a towering tree and are about to sprout.

What changes will there be in 2016? Here are 10 guesses. (Purely personal opinions, welcome to criticize)

The first hypothesis: the rise of operator channels

Billing capability is the first driving force for the development of the industry. Perhaps some friends firmly believe that game quality is the first priority. As long as the quality is high and as long as it is fun, can you get money? Considering the national conditions, it may not be the case.

Operators’ billing capabilities have special advantages, which have been fully demonstrated in the field of stand-alone mobile games. The practice of TV games in 2015 also shows that it also has advantages in the entire period of stand-alone TV games and the early stage of networked TV games.

Cable TV operators already have 30 million two-way set-top boxes. China Telecom, China Unicom and China Mobile will distribute no less than 30 million Android set-top boxes in 2016. These four operators are likely to become the main channel for Chinese TV games with their strong billing capabilities and rapidly growing user base.

Second guess: OEM channels are strengthening

In the field of mobile games, third-party game stores seized the initiative and made a lot of money. By the time hardware manufacturers woke up and formed a "hardcore alliance", it was too late. This kind of drama will not be repeated in the field of TV games, and TV manufacturers have more and more say.

In 2016, we may see the leading machine manufacturer channels take billing, operations and other aspects to a higher level, becoming the second main force and not letting third-party stores grow bigger.

The third hypothesis: OTT boxes are declining rapidly

In 2016, device manufacturers may continue to act as price butchers, selling large screens of dozens of inches as cabbages, making the OTT boxes that were originally used to fill the gaps like chicken ribs. When the old TV sets at home are replaced, the OTT boxes will also come to an end.

In the past few years, the number of OTT boxes could reach tens or even millions per month, but it is expected to decline rapidly in 2016. These box users only download and never pay for TV games, so they can be ignored.

The fourth hypothesis: the number of third-party game halls will be reduced to less than 5.

At the beginning of 2015, there were 110 third-party TV game halls, just like the overwhelming P2P and O2O projects at that time. By the end of the year, P2P games ran away, O2O projects collapsed one after another, and only about 20 third-party TV game halls were left.

In 2016, operators and device manufacturers will all use their own game halls, and the space for third-party game halls will be further compressed. It is estimated that there will be less than 5 left in a year. These few are very distinctive and have proven their survivability.

The fifth hypothesis: the popularity of controllers reaches 5%

At the beginning of 2015, the household controller penetration rate was less than 1%, and by the end of the year it was almost over 3%. There are several factors that will increase the penetration rate of controllers. First, game blockbusters encourage players to actively buy them. Second, new models of TVs are equipped with controllers as standard. Third, operators have launched activities such as "free controllers for business transactions". It is estimated that by the end of 2016, the penetration rate of controllers will reach more than 5%.

When the controller penetration rate exceeds 20%, it will be the avalanche point for controller games.

Hypothesis 6: Game output decreases and quality increases

In 2015, a total of 60 TV games were launched (some so-called "TV games" adapted from mobile games are not included in the statistics). The quality of products has shown a gradual upward trend, but due to the limitations of average hardware processing power and the ability and experience of developers, there has not yet been a 3A masterpiece.

Many developers feel that they must further improve product quality, and quality means longer development cycles and costs. In the past, it might take three months to produce a new product, but in 2016 it may take nine to twelve months.

However, the money-making effect of this market segment has not yet become apparent, and the number of new developers is expected to be in the single digit. Therefore, it is speculated that the number of native TV games launched in 2016 will drop to 40 to 50 (excluding mobile game adaptations and H5 mini games).

The seventh hypothesis: A single game has a monthly turnover of 500,000

The combination of improved product quality, smooth channel charging, and an expanded player base has resulted in an increase in revenue. In 2015, the monthly revenue of a single game reached hundreds of thousands or even hundreds of thousands. Starting at a certain point in 2016, a monthly revenue of more than 500,000 for a single game became the norm.

8. Most developers will survive 2016.

It is said that there are as many as 27,000 mobile game development teams in China at the peak, and 90% of them will disappear by the end of 2015. Anyone who is only interested in making a quick buck and does not work in the game industry with care and patience will inevitably be included in the 90%.

The vast majority of video game developers are this group of people: they love video games, are not boastful, can endure loneliness, are enthusiastic and humble.

Although the road is still not easy, they have been persevering and guess that most developers will be able to get through 2016 smoothly.

The 9th guess: There are only one or two Android game consoles left

Android game consoles are a more subdivided field of TV games. Since 2014, many players have tried the market, including listed companies, but the response has been mediocre. The reason is the same: they only make hardware without software support. For example, most Chinese people think that they are willing to buy TV sets, but will not pay for TV programs (the 18 yuan for cable TV is the maintenance fee). When manufacturers are unwilling to spend 1 cent to purchase the distribution rights of games, how can good games run on their game consoles?

This situation may change in 2016. When a manufacturer emerges that starts with software and provides a good player experience, he may be the only one.

The 10th hypothesis: The birth of a video game console

In 2015, there are a dazzling array of televisions, with all kinds of combined, split, and super-sized ones. In terms of hardware, there is only stronger and stronger, and the competition is quite fierce. Although new televisions have made great progress in display, energy consumption, processing power, etc., in terms of human-computer interaction, the remote control, a device invented in 1950, is still used, which is very frustrating.

A small number of hardcore gamers in China are fans of the PS4, but there are many more non-hardcore gamers who need a game console that can be activated by a wireless controller, that is all-in-one, that does not require a separate game console to be turned on, that does not require additional wiring, and that can be played as long as it is plugged into a power source. This is a TV game console with Chinese characteristics. Perhaps in 2016, a manufacturer will be able to satisfy them.

Other aspects, such as mobile phone control of TV games, H5, VR, AR, somatosensory control, etc., are beyond the author's cognitive ability and make it impossible to guess.

At the end of 2015, TV games have entered the list of five major industry segments: client games, web games, mobile games, stand-alone games, and TV games. Looking ahead to 2016, it is neither the spring nor the winter of TV games. It does not need to follow the change of seasons. No matter what the temperature is, it will exist there and grow silently there.

As a winner of Toutiao's Qingyun Plan and Baijiahao's Bai+ Plan, the 2019 Baidu Digital Author of the Year, the Baijiahao's Most Popular Author in the Technology Field, the 2019 Sogou Technology and Culture Author, and the 2021 Baijiahao Quarterly Influential Creator, he has won many awards, including the 2013 Sohu Best Industry Media Person, the 2015 China New Media Entrepreneurship Competition Beijing Third Place, the 2015 Guangmang Experience Award, the 2015 China New Media Entrepreneurship Competition Finals Third Place, and the 2018 Baidu Dynamic Annual Powerful Celebrity.