The total box office during the 7-day National Day holiday dropped 15.30% year-on-year: Did Guo Jingming have to hide in the toilet and cry? !

On the evening of October 7, the National Day box office, which carried so much hope, was released, but the climax that everyone expected did not arrive.

According to data from the Film Special Fund Office, as of 22:00 on the evening of October 7, the total box office for the seven-day National Day holiday was approximately 1.567 billion yuan, a decrease of 283 million yuan compared to last year's 1.85 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 15.30%.

There are also some noteworthy aspects in several films this year, such as "Operation Mekong", a mainstream commercial blockbuster, which scored more than 7.6 points on Douban with its superb fighting scenes and adaptation of real events. However, the box office performance of a single film did not save the market.

Operation Mekong

Judging from the films, compared with the previous year's "Lost in Thailand", last year's "Charlotte's Troubles", "Lost in Hong Kong" and "Nine-story Demon Tower", the quality of this year's films can only be said to be average. On the second day of the National Day, an industry insider compared this year's National Day with last year's and wrote the following in his WeChat Moments:

"At this time last year, audiences were on the rise and ticket subsidies were going wild. In that magnificent drama, there were financial products, small films making a comeback, and some salted fish turning over a new leaf... But this year's National Day, the guaranteed minimum and ticket subsidies are at a low point, and the hot film market still needs to keep going."

This year's National Day box office fell 15.30% year-on-year

First, let’s review the box office performance of each film during this National Day holiday.

"Passing by Your World" was first released on September 29, with a box office of 74 million on the first day. On the second day, the box office declined slightly due to the impact of "Jade Dynasty", but rebounded on October 1. The single-day box office has always remained above 50 million. The cumulative box office has now exceeded 600 million.

The most dramatic one is "Mekong River". As expected by the outside world, with its good quality and reputation, coupled with the strong patriotic color of the film, it has continuously set off topics and movie-watching crazes, becoming the only dark horse to counterattack during the National Day. The box office on the day of its release on September 30 was only 38.92 million, and then it continued to rise, surpassing "The Whole World" and "Jade Dynasty", occupying the first place in single-day scheduling and box office. Many industry insiders believe that the box office of "Mekong River" is expected to exceed 1 billion.

Guo Jingming's "Jade Dynasty" was released on September 30th, and earned a single-day box office of 73.699 million on October 1st. It has been declining since then, and the single-day box office on the 7th was just over 15 million, which is in sharp contrast to "Mekong". The final box office is expected to be around 400 million.

The runner-up "Ace vs Ace" was released on September 30th, and its box office reached a peak of 46.17 million on October 1st. It has been declining since then. Currently, the single-day box office has fallen below 20 million, and the box office has just exceeded 200 million.

Overall, after several years of rapid growth, this year's National Day box office will see negative growth for the first time. Looking back at last year, the total box office of 11 films including "Lost in Hong Kong", "Nine-story Demon Tower" and "Charlotte's Troubles" reached 1.85 billion yuan during the National Day, an increase of 71% over the 1.084 billion yuan in the same period of 2014. This year's National Day box office totaled about 1.567 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 15.30%.

From 170 million yuan in 2008 to 1.85 billion yuan in 2015, the box office of the National Day movies has maintained a high growth rate that exceeds the annual average. However, due to the lack of blockbuster leading and word-of-mouth support, this growth trend was broken this year.

It is worth noting that the market cooling is not unique to the National Day period. This year's summer and Mid-Autumn Festival box office has decreased compared to last year. The overall market downturn is closely related to the quality of the films. Whether in terms of the variety of types, quantity, or quality of the films, they have not improved but regressed compared to last year.

Some people compared Mekong with Saving Mr. Wu, which was released during the National Day holiday last year, and believed that the audience's viewing habits have begun to change and that they can accept serious genre films. However, some people disagreed with this statement, saying that Mr. Wu's commercial value is far inferior to Mekong, saying that Mekong is a standard Hollywood-style film that can really make the audience high in the theater.

"The market is really too cold!" said a publicity operator for this year's National Day films. In order to cultivate a movie-watching atmosphere for the National Day, various companies have tried their best in publicity. Take "The Whole World" as an example. Compared with the early publicity of one or two theme songs in previous years, Guangguang has unprecedentedly launched a total of four different versions of music theme songs by Li Ronghao, Faye Wong, Deng Chao, etc., "in order to reach the greatest number of audiences from different directions." Moreover, compared with previous years, the investment in print and video materials of "The Whole World" has nearly doubled.

Wang Changtian, president of Light Media, said that despite the overall cold market environment, the box office of "The Whole World" has met Light Media's expectations.

The winners and losers behind the National Day

Judging from the producers behind several films during the National Day holiday, this National Day is a battle between Light Media, LeTV, and Bona. So, who is the big winner?

LeTV's "Legend of Zu" is definitely not one of them. Neither LeTV nor Guo Jingming would like to see this ending. The disappointment of "Legend of Zu" was a bit unexpected. But as the theater manager said, Guo Jingming's fan movies have always relied on the popularity of the previous few days, but the problem is that this time, the popularity was too short-lived.

Some analysts said that the IP influence of "Jade Dynasty" is not as strong as that of "Tiny Times", the star CG movie cannot satisfy the fans, and Guo Jingming's own credit and reputation are also declining, and the audience is not buying it.

A previous article stated that from the perspective of capital, "Jade Dynasty" is not only related to the gains and losses of investors in box office revenue, but also to LeTV's performance commitment for the acquisition of LeTV Pictures, and how Jia Yueting's "ecological counterattack" that he is best at will be promoted in the film and television industry.

Back to May 6 this year, LeTV acquired 100% of the equity of LeTV Pictures for 9.8 billion yuan. LeTV Pictures also made a performance commitment that the net profit attributable to the parent company's shareholders after deducting non-recurring gains and losses in 2016, 2017 and 2018 will not be less than 520 million yuan, 730 million yuan and 1.04 billion yuan respectively.

"Legend of the Condor Heroes" is an important source of income for LeTV Pictures, in addition to "The Great Wall", to fulfill its performance commitment in 2016. It is rumored that the production cost of "Legend of the Condor Heroes" is 150 million yuan. Judging from the current performance, "Legend of the Condor Heroes" has not only failed to become a box office hero, but is also expected to become a burden that drags down LeTV's performance this year.

"Great Wall"

Some are happy while others are sad. In sharp contrast is Bona's "Operation Mekong" (hereinafter referred to as "Mekong"), a dark horse that is rising rapidly.

"Mekong" is the only film in the National Day that has held an advance screening, which shows its confidence in its own reputation. With the film quality of a Hollywood action blockbuster and the strong patriotic color of the film, it has continued to stir up topics and movie-watching craze, becoming the only dark horse in the National Day.

In contrast, Enlight Media, the company behind "The Whole World", had a relatively stable performance during the National Day holiday this year. At present, Enlight Media's success during the National Day holiday is largely due to the early release date. On September 1, "The Whole World" was moved up one day to September 29, becoming the first release during the National Day holiday. Facts have proved that this strategy is effective. The film earned 74 million yuan on the first day. On the second day, the box office fell slightly due to the impact of "Jade Dynasty", but it rebounded on October 1, maintaining a single-day box office of more than 50 million yuan for 8 days.

"worldwide"

A weather vane for pessimists, or the darkness before dawn?

Although not as ideal as last year's results, the National Day movie market was still strong for a few days compared to this year's weekday market of more than 30 million. From the 1st to the 6th, it exceeded 200 million for 6 consecutive days.

But for theater managers, all is not rosy.

In this summer season, some cinema managers believe that in order to achieve the KPI set at the beginning of the year, they have now focused their efforts on Hollywood blockbusters. "If Hollywood blockbusters don't become hits, then we will definitely lose our year-end bonuses," sighed a cinema manager in South China.

"Our performance appraisal is generally directly linked to the year-end bonus. If I fail to achieve the KPI, it means that I will not get a large part of my annual income. The performance in April, May and June in the first half of the year was all below the prescribed average, and the headquarters did not adjust the performance requirements. Therefore, if the movie box office does not increase, we may be more anxious than the film company." The manager of a cinema in Baodi District, Tianjin told Entertainment Capital.

Regarding this year's overall box office performance, Wang Changtian, president of Light Media, said that since September this year, including the National Day period, the box office has been lower than expected. In his opinion, the overall film industry is sluggish this year. In addition to factors such as film quality and ticket subsidies that are hotly debated in the industry, the downward trend of the macro economy has also affected people's enthusiasm for movie consumption.

Despite this, Wang Changtian is still very confident about the future. He talked about his observation: this year's film market may lack blockbusters, but the number of films with a score of 8 or above on Maoyan has increased significantly compared to last year. This actually shows that the average quality of most domestic films has improved significantly compared to last year, but the audience's requirements for high-quality films have increased faster.

He said that the overall environment of the domestic film industry is still moving in a positive direction, and predicted that next year will be a "big year" for Chinese films. "The projects, scripts, and directors I have seen are much better than this year!" In his opinion, after years of growth of more than 30%, this year's slowdown in the film market is a normal return. Although the market is cold, next year's box office performance is still worth looking forward to.

As a winner of Toutiao's Qingyun Plan and Baijiahao's Bai+ Plan, the 2019 Baidu Digital Author of the Year, the Baijiahao's Most Popular Author in the Technology Field, the 2019 Sogou Technology and Culture Author, and the 2021 Baijiahao Quarterly Influential Creator, he has won many awards, including the 2013 Sohu Best Industry Media Person, the 2015 China New Media Entrepreneurship Competition Beijing Third Place, the 2015 Guangmang Experience Award, the 2015 China New Media Entrepreneurship Competition Finals Third Place, and the 2018 Baidu Dynamic Annual Powerful Celebrity.