The auto market is cold, but demand is booming. When will the new energy market thaw?

In the first quarter of this year, the new energy vehicle market was affected by factors such as policies and catalogs, and lived in fear. According to statistics from the China Automobile Association, in the first three months of this year, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were 58,000 and 56,000 respectively, down 7.7% and 4.7% from the same period last year. This data makes people wonder when the new energy vehicle market will be "thawed"?

March sales continued to rise

Due to the serious "lag" in the sales of new energy vehicles in the first two months of this year, the auto market was forced to start the acceleration mode in March to save the sluggish market. In terms of monthly sales, the sales in the first two months of this year were 6,000 and 18,000 vehicles respectively. Until March, sales showed a significant increase, reaching 31,000 vehicles. Chen Shihua, assistant secretary-general of the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, said that since March, the auto market has no longer been affected by factors such as the Spring Festival, and industry policies have been implemented one after another. Finally, my country's automobile sales have achieved a month-on-month growth.

"Low in the early stage, strong in the later stage" has become a fixed pattern for the development of new energy vehicles. In the view of Yao Jie, Secretary General of the China Automobile Association, the cold market in the early stage of the new energy vehicle market is a normal phenomenon. With the gradual implementation of national policies, the market is expected to pick up further. Judging from the market performance in the first quarter, the performance in March has improved significantly compared with the previous period, and this trend is expected to continue.

Market demand is growing

Although the data shows that the new energy vehicle market did not perform well in the early stage, the market demand for these models is increasing day by day. According to the news released by the Beijing Passenger Car Index Office, as of 24:00 on April 8, 2017, a total of 26,362 applications for individual demonstration application of new energy passenger car allocation indicators and confirmation extensions have been received. In fact, there are about 10,672 individual new energy vehicle indicators remaining in Beijing this year. This means that Beijing's individual indicators this year will be fully used up in the second round of lottery.

This year, Beijing only conducted the second phase of the lottery, and the quotas for new energy vehicles were snapped up. As the purchase quotas accumulate in the second half of the year, the new energy vehicle market will also be in a situation where "tickets are hard to come by." Previously, Cui Dongshu, secretary-general of the National Passenger Vehicle Market Information Joint Conference, had predicted that the new energy vehicle market will see a small peak in the second quarter of this year, and may decline to a certain extent in the third quarter. This is closely related to the implementation of the new energy vehicle lottery policy in Beijing.

Judging from the current development of the industry, automakers are still heavily dependent on subsidies for new energy vehicles. Especially in the stage of unclear policies, the sales of domestic new energy vehicle brands have shown a downward trend. In contrast, Tesla still maintains its original development momentum. As of now, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has released the third batch of promotion catalogs in 2017, with a total of 634 models selected, of which the third batch includes 309 models, which is twice the total number of the first two batches, significantly exceeding market expectations. In the industry's view, this year's new energy vehicle market is in a critical period of transformation, and is gradually shifting from policy-driven to market-driven. It is still a major test for automakers to get rid of the "policy" cradle.

The six-region land subsidy policy has been implemented

So far, Beijing, Jiangsu, Gansu, Fuzhou, Shanxi and Xi'an have implemented the land subsidy policy. It is reported that Shanghai and Shenzhen have also actively formulated relevant subsidy policies.

Last year, due to the "subsidy fraud" incident in the market, the subsidy policy of the new energy vehicle market was adjusted significantly. For this reason, local subsidies have also been changed in accordance with national subsidies. Especially for cities promoting new energy vehicles, while providing subsidies, it is also necessary to avoid the recurrence of subsidy fraud. In addition, it is also necessary to have a positive role in promoting the market. This means that in the formulation of subsidy policies, government departments have to make many considerations.

Cui Dongshu believes that after the adjustment period in the first quarter, the relevant policies of the new energy vehicle industry have gradually become clear. The second quarter of this year may usher in a season of frequent market policies, and the local subsidy policies of various regions will gradually be implemented, and the market may tend to stabilize by then.

As a winner of Toutiao's Qingyun Plan and Baijiahao's Bai+ Plan, the 2019 Baidu Digital Author of the Year, the Baijiahao's Most Popular Author in the Technology Field, the 2019 Sogou Technology and Culture Author, and the 2021 Baijiahao Quarterly Influential Creator, he has won many awards, including the 2013 Sohu Best Industry Media Person, the 2015 China New Media Entrepreneurship Competition Beijing Third Place, the 2015 Guangmang Experience Award, the 2015 China New Media Entrepreneurship Competition Finals Third Place, and the 2018 Baidu Dynamic Annual Powerful Celebrity.