Apollo's driverless bus will go into mass production next month. Can Baidu's Apollo do the same?

On May 24, Robin Li announced that Apollo, the driverless bus jointly developed by Baidu and King Long, will go into mass production in July.

Also on May 24, Baidu and Panda Car launched the "Autonomous Driving Demonstration Park" in Chongqing. However, the on-site demonstration made Baidu and Panda somewhat embarrassed. In the demonstration, the car not only failed to automatically enter the parking space, but also failed to successfully identify the cargo passenger car. Both demonstrations were forced to be manually intervened.

This makes people wonder whether Baidu is a little anxious.

On May 18, the news of Lu Qi's resignation from Baidu was released. In the following three days, Baidu's stock price fell by more than 14%, and the market value of 10 billion US dollars evaporated. After Lu Qi's resignation, Baidu continued to make frequent moves in the field of driverless driving: first, it announced the road test in Xiongan; then Robin Li personally confirmed that the goal of mass production in July would be achieved as scheduled; at the same time, it demonstrated autonomous driving technology in Chongqing and Panda.

All these actions are Baidu's efforts to send a signal to the outside world: Although Lu Qi has left, Baidu's Apollo project is still moving forward.

Although these efforts were somewhat hasty, they have had obvious results. Currently, Baidu's stock price is close to the level before Lu Qi left. For Baidu, this is not only a recovery of market value losses, but more importantly, a restoration of market confidence. Market confidence is related to whether Baidu can obtain further funds and various resources, which directly determines whether the Apollo project can run smoothly.

The Apollo project is an option that may or may not be important for China's driverless industry, but for Baidu, it means a brand new development space.

Baidu is not fighting alone by opening up Apollo

In April 2017, Baidu launched the Apollo project. Under the leadership of Lu Qi, Baidu began to divest various non-core businesses and started the "All-In AI" strategy. Baidu's public image gradually changed from search to AI; the company's market value also rose from more than 40 billion US dollars to 90 billion US dollars.

The importance of the Apollo project to Baidu is self-evident. Although Lu Qi's departure is a great loss to Baidu, Lu Qi has basically completed the phased tasks of Baidu's reform during his short tenure. No matter how conservative the forces within Baidu are, the market's reaction has determined that Baidu must continue to move forward in the direction of AI and driverless cars.

In the Apollo project, Baidu hopes to provide a complete set of software, hardware and service solutions, including vehicle platform, hardware platform, software platform, cloud data service, etc. Baidu will open the code or capabilities of functions such as environmental perception, path planning, vehicle control, and vehicle operating system, and provide complete development and testing tools.

Robin Li once emphasized that Baidu will not participate in car manufacturing, but only provide an autonomous driving system platform. Baidu hopes to become the Microsoft and Google of the intelligent driving field, providing low-level technology and services for driverless driving, and then become the leader in the field of intelligent driving. Cars are a brand-new intelligent terminal, which will be a huge market in the future. If Baidu can make a breakthrough in this direction, it will have a very broad space for development.

Autonomous driving is not only a technology, but also a complex industrial chain. Autonomous driving technology can be divided into three levels: perception, cognition and action. Perception includes laser radar, millimeter wave radar, ultrasonic radar, integrated navigation equipment, cameras, etc. The cognitive part refers to the on-board computing platform (chip), which is responsible for control and planning, that is, artificial intelligence. Action includes steering, throttle and braking.

The progress of each part requires a lot of resources, and no company can complete this complex system engineering independently. This is also the reason why Baidu's Apollo platform is open to the industry. It is precisely because the industry chain of autonomous driving is so complex that the development of autonomous driving depends on cooperation and industrial division of labor.

Google's driverless technology is world-leading, but Google's position in this regard is also a software provider, not a complete vehicle provider. Apple initially wanted to develop a complete vehicle, but eventually encountered many difficulties and gradually turned to driverless software development. China's BAT and Huawei's layout for smart car driverless is also focused on a certain part of the industry chain.

Traditional car companies have many advantages over Internet technology companies like Baidu in the field of driverless cars. For example, traditional car companies have unparalleled advantages in vehicle production, regulatory safety, automotive industry chain, sales system, etc. Baidu's advantages are mainly in artificial intelligence and road test data.

Traditional car companies and technology companies have very different paths for developing smart cars. Traditional car companies focus on practical needs, develop smart cars from the bottom up, and gradually integrate related technologies of autonomous driving into the development of new cars, such as adaptive cruise control and automatic braking. This development method is less difficult and less likely to delay delivery and disappoint consumers.

Technology companies like Baidu first proposed the ultimate goal of autonomous driving, and then carried out technical research and development around this goal. This is more forward-looking and global, which is conducive to the overall planning of technological development and thus faster advancement. The difference in the two R&D methods makes the advantages of the two more complementary, and also makes the cooperation between the two parties more critical for the development of driverless technology. Smart cars are a revolution of traditional cars, but this revolution must be based on the deep integration and connection with the traditional automobile industry.

Apollo's open source can lower the threshold for technology research and development, and promote technological progress and promotion. However, Apollo's open source is not without benefits. The open source platform and alliance-style R&D approach can easily lead to fragmented development and separation between software and hardware, thereby reducing the speed of technological development. Now the speed of technological iteration is very fast, and once it lags behind, it is easy to be abandoned by the market. It will be difficult to actually implement data sharing between different companies, and it is not easy to reconcile the complex conflicts of interest in the process.

Autonomous driving: China and the world have a huge gap

Although domestic BAT companies have already laid out autonomous driving, Baidu, with its first-mover advantage, is undoubtedly the most mature technology among them. In 2013, Baidu's autonomous vehicle project started. At present, Baidu has achieved certain results in the field of autonomous driving and has gradually built its own industrial chain. At the same time, few entrepreneurial teams that entered this field have really produced results.

In fact, most of the companies engaged in unmanned shipbuilding have joined Baidu's Apollo platform. Even Jingchi Technology, which was spun off from Baidu, is now cooperating with Baidu again. But even so, Baidu's current technology is still a long way from true unmanned driving.

The driverless buses launched in July are mainly used in closed scenarios, such as scenic spots, parks, airports and other closed areas. With the gradual improvement of technology, as well as the improvement of laws, regulations and infrastructure, they will be applied to semi-enclosed venues and even open roads, such as the public transportation field.

Although Tencent and Alibaba are trying to catch up, the two companies only announced their autonomous driving projects this year and are unable to quickly implement them. For domestic manufacturers, there is currently no other choice except Baidu Apollo. Baidu Apollo was selected as a national new generation artificial intelligence open innovation platform in November last year, which actually gives Baidu Apollo the status of a "national team" in the field of driverless driving. This is also an affirmation of Baidu Apollo's leading position in China in autonomous driving technology.

However, Baidu's technology developed later than foreign advanced technology and there is still a big gap. Among the top 18 companies in the world in autonomous driving in 2017, only Baidu from China was on the list and ranked last. For example, Baidu still has a big gap with foreign countries in terms of road test data and high-precision map reserves. Compared with international giants who have invested tens of billions of dollars in autonomous driving, Baidu's investment in Apollo is only at the level of 2 billion US dollars. Insufficient capital scale is also an important reason why Baidu chooses open source cooperation.

At present, China's driverless cars are not only lagging behind in technology, but also in supporting infrastructure, laws and regulations. However, both the U.S. and China's driverless cars are still in their infancy, with a lot of room for development, and China still has room to catch up.

Autonomous driving has obvious localization characteristics, and Chinese companies have great home advantage in the domestic market. As an industry that is supported by the state, autonomous driving will also enjoy a lot of convenience and support in terms of policies. At the same time, autonomous driving is also highly accepted in China. For example, in the United States and Germany, the public acceptance is around 16%, while in China, it can reach 50%.

In China, both traditional car companies and technology companies have a certain gap compared to foreign competitors. The long-term technological backwardness makes both sides more eager to work together to keep each other warm and overtake each other when new technologies emerge.

China is the world's largest automobile sales and production market. With its scale advantages and rich application scenarios, if China's driverless technology can gain a foothold in the domestic market, it will have a great opportunity to go global with the Chinese market as its foundation.

As a winner of Toutiao's Qingyun Plan and Baijiahao's Bai+ Plan, the 2019 Baidu Digital Author of the Year, the Baijiahao's Most Popular Author in the Technology Field, the 2019 Sogou Technology and Culture Author, and the 2021 Baijiahao Quarterly Influential Creator, he has won many awards, including the 2013 Sohu Best Industry Media Person, the 2015 China New Media Entrepreneurship Competition Beijing Third Place, the 2015 Guangmang Experience Award, the 2015 China New Media Entrepreneurship Competition Finals Third Place, and the 2018 Baidu Dynamic Annual Powerful Celebrity.