China Automobile Dealers Association: China's auto dealer inventory warning index is 54.7% in August 2022

On August 31, 2022, the latest issue of "China Automobile Dealer Inventory Alert Index Survey" VIA (Vehicle Inventory Alert Index) released by the China Automobile Dealers Association showed that the China automobile dealer inventory alert index in August 2022 was 54.7%, an increase of 3.0 percentage points year-on-year and 0.3 percentage points month-on-month. The inventory warning index is above the boom-bust line.

The auto market in August continued the good trend of the previous month's off-season. Under the joint effects of the halving of the car purchase tax policy, local subsidy policies, and manufacturer promotions, the auto market continued to pick up. Due to the continued high temperature in many provinces and the resurgence of the epidemic, consumers in some parts of the south did not buy cars this month due to traditional customs, which had an impact on passenger flow and sales. A series of auto shows and the accelerated launch of new cars attracted consumers' attention to the auto market, which was conducive to stimulating car buying enthusiasm and boosting auto sales.

In summary, the automobile market continued to maintain stable growth in August , with terminal sales expected to be around 1.86 million vehicles. Due to the chip shortage in August 2021, sales were severely sluggish, and sales will achieve a year-on-year growth of 30 % .

The survey shows that the current inventory structure of dealers is unreasonable, with some popular models in short supply and slow-selling models under inventory, resulting in slightly poor capital turnover. Due to the strong promotion efforts, the gross profit per vehicle of most models is low, resulting in high operating costs. Dealers in Sichuan and Chongqing are facing high temperatures, a sharp drop in store traffic, and the epidemic situation in both places is relatively serious, with many areas under lockdown, and the overall operating conditions are poor.

September is the end of the third quarter, and dealers' vehicle purchase tasks and inventory will increase. According to the survey, 31.6% of dealers believe that the increase in new vehicle inventory is "0-5%" , and 32.5% believe it is "5-10%" .

Judging from the sub-indices: In August , the inventory, market demand, and average daily sales indexes increased month-on-month, while the employee and operating conditions indexes decreased month-on-month.

From the perspective of regional indexes : the national total index was 54.7% in August, the northern region index was 53.0%, the eastern region index was 56.1%, the western region index was 54.4%, and the southern region index was 52.2%.

From the perspective of brand type index : From the perspective of brand type, the import & luxury brand, domestic brand index increased in August, while the mainstream joint venture brand index decreased.

Market prediction for next month: September is the traditional peak season. The policy of halving the purchase tax and local policies to promote consumption continue to take effect. In addition, auto shows are launched in many places and new cars are released in batches. Market demand will increase. Due to the rise of the epidemic in many places, the Chengdu International Auto Show has been suspended, and some car purchase demand will be delayed. However, the growth trend of the auto market in September remains unchanged, and it is expected to grow by 10-15% .

The China Automobile Dealers Association recommends that as the uncertainty in the automobile market increases in the future, dealers should rationally estimate actual market demand based on actual conditions, reasonably control inventory levels, and never relax their epidemic prevention efforts.