The laser TV market is in a saddle-shaped decline, and how to break the situation has become an urgent matter

After years of rapid growth, it was thought that the sales peak in the second quarter of 2020 would become the new starting point for the laser TV market. Unexpectedly, this record became the apex of the saddle shape.

According to data released by Luotu Technology, in 2020, the total shipment of laser TVs in China was only 212,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 5.9%, and the absolute increase was only about 10,000 units. In comparison, in 2018, the growth rate of China's laser TV market exceeded 100%.

Of course, one excuse for laser TVs is that in 2020, the retail volume of China's color TV market was 44.5 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 9.1%. Against the backdrop of the continued sluggishness of the entire market, it is not easy for laser TVs to maintain positive growth.

However, it cannot be ignored that the inherent large-screen feature of laser TVs makes them not as widely sold as traditional TVs. What is even more intriguing is that TrendForce data shows that in 2020, the shipments of 65-inch and 70-inch smart TVs in the Chinese color TV market increased by 23.4% and 47.8% year-on-year respectively. This directly refutes the above excuses for laser TVs.

From this perspective, the outstanding market performance of laser TV in the second quarter of 2020 seems to be more due to the rebound in consumption after the epidemic rather than the direct product appeal. This also means that the market dilemma faced by laser TV is more complex and severe.

The stall is not only due to the impact of LCD TV

Of course, it cannot be denied that as the market gradually expands, the year-on-year growth rate of shipments of emerging products will inevitably decline. However, the year-on-year growth rate of the laser TV market in 2020 once dropped from 50% to 5.9%, which just shows that there is a fierce contradiction between the laser TV product itself and the overall environment of the TV industry.

As mentioned above, the foundation for the survival of laser TVs is the ultra-large screen market. This is mainly because, in the context of an immature supply chain, the screen size and price of LCD TVs are exponentially related. For example, data released by WitsView shows that in mid-2020, the price of a 32-inch TV panel was only US$56, while the average price of a 65-inch TV panel was as high as US$170.

On the other hand, laser TVs do not use liquid crystal panels, so in theory, they can create infinitely large screens at zero cost. Therefore, this can greatly capture consumers who want ultra-large screens but do not want to pay too high a cost.

However, as the supply chain matures, the prices of large-size LCD TVs are also falling. For example, the current mainstream 75-inch 4K LCD TVs have dropped in price to less than 6,000 yuan, which will inevitably cause a stir in the consumer market. According to data released by Luotu Technology, in 2020, the sales volume of ultra-large-size LCD TVs of 75 inches and above in the Chinese market reached 1.65 million units, a year-on-year increase of 18%.

In addition, from the perspective of product evolution, in contrast to the great strides forward made by LCD TVs, laser TVs have become increasingly difficult in the past two years.

First, unlike the trend of LCD TV prices falling after the maturity of large-size LCD panels, the price of laser TVs has not dropped too much in the past two years. It is understood that most of the 100-inch 4K laser TV packages on the market are priced above 20,000 yuan. In comparison, the price of Redmi 98-inch 4K LCD TV has even dropped below 20,000 yuan, and the 86-inch has even reached a low of 7,999 yuan. In this regard, Dong Min, deputy secretary-general of the China Electronic Video Industry Association, said: "Although brands and supply chains are actively reducing costs to increase sales of complete machines, it is difficult for the cost of laser TVs to fall in the next three to five years."

On the other hand, driven by top-level content such as the Spring Festival Gala, the Olympic Games, and the two sessions, 8K LCD TVs have also begun to enter the homes of ordinary people. According to data from Aowei Cloud Network, in 2020, the cumulative sales of 8K LCD TVs were close to 60,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 264%. At the same time, Deloitte also released a data report stating that it is expected that by the end of 2021, the price of basic 8K TVs will drop to around RMB 9,800. At this point, not only can laser TVs not talk about price cuts, but the products have not even been seen, and are clearly one level behind LCD TVs.

The solution

However, although LCD TVs are coming on strong, laser TVs are not necessarily powerless in this zero-sum competition. On the contrary, as long as laser TVs can find a survival gap like the "ultra-large screen", they can survive well.

First of all, similar to the logic of LCD TVs seizing the market, laser TVs can also capture consumers by lowering the product price as much as possible, such as lowering the package price of an 80-inch laser TV + anti-glare screen to around 8,000 yuan.

But then again, the basis for product price reduction is large-scale industrial production. According to data from Luotu Technology, the top three laser TV brands in mainland China accounted for 79% of the market share in 2020, which also shows the reality that the upstream and downstream of the laser TV market are not very vibrant.

It is precisely because of the awareness of this problem that at the "Second Global Laser Display Technology and Industry Development Forum", Hisense Group Chairman Zhou Houqian said: "Hisense will share 1,000 patents with the industry within five years, and will also fully launch a laser TV production line expansion plan... I hope that more chip, lens, optical material, screen, laser and other companies will join this circle of friends. The more players there are, the bigger the market will be."

As the saying goes, different paths lead to the same destination. From this perspective, if laser TV wants to have a certain advantage in direct competition with LCD TV, the most important thing is to emulate the large-scale industrialization route of LCD panels, and then reduce the price of the product through upstream and downstream coordinated operations to impress consumers.

On the other hand, in addition to the "super large screen", laser TV also has incomparable technical advantages over LCD TV in terms of health. Xu Zuyan, an academician of the Chinese Academy of Engineering, once said: "Because laser TV uses a reflective imaging method and the brightness is 300-400 nits, it can effectively relieve visual fatigue and protect the eyes for long-term viewing compared to traditional LCD displays."

Especially under the influence of the epidemic, online education has been raised to an unprecedented level. Therefore, laser TVs actually meet the pain points of parents who are worried about their children's eyesight during online learning.

Following this line of thought, many people may also think of the "ultra-large screen" advantage of laser TV - after all, laser TV has eliminated the LCD screen, so as long as the price is not outrageously high, laser TV can occupy the blank LCD market of more than 100 inches.

But the problem is that the space in elevators and living rooms where most consumers live is rigidly limited, and the size of ultra-large-screen TVs cannot be expanded without an upper limit. Therefore, the "ultra-large screen" advantage of laser TVs must still be coordinated with the price mentioned above, that is, maintaining a lower selling price at the largest possible screen size to attract consumers.

In general, although laser TV has become the darling of the large-screen market in the past three years due to its ultra-large screen advantage, it is also the reason for its failure. It is precisely because there is no strong competitor that the product price and technology of laser TV have not made great strides in accordance with the development inertia of mainstream technology terminals.

As the upstream ultra-large-screen LCD panel supply chain gradually matures, the ultra-large-screen advantage that laser TVs once boasted of suddenly faced strong competition, which made the laser TV market in 2020 take on a saddle-shaped trend.

Fortunately, the leading players in the laser TV industry and the product characteristics of laser TVs also determine that they are not completely defenseless in the face of strong competition. As predicted by Loto Technology, the annual growth rate of laser TV market shipments is expected to be around 5-15% in the next five years. Considering that the ultra-large screen TV market itself is a zero-sum competition, the market pressure in 2020 may in turn inspire the fighting spirit of players in the laser TV industry and become a turning point for the laser TV industry.

As a winner of Toutiao's Qingyun Plan and Baijiahao's Bai+ Plan, the 2019 Baidu Digital Author of the Year, the Baijiahao's Most Popular Author in the Technology Field, the 2019 Sogou Technology and Culture Author, and the 2021 Baijiahao Quarterly Influential Creator, he has won many awards, including the 2013 Sohu Best Industry Media Person, the 2015 China New Media Entrepreneurship Competition Beijing Third Place, the 2015 Guangmang Experience Award, the 2015 China New Media Entrepreneurship Competition Finals Third Place, and the 2018 Baidu Dynamic Annual Powerful Celebrity.