China Automobile Dealers Association: Analysis of the Pickup Truck Market in July 2023

According to the data from the China Passenger Car Association Pickup Truck Market Information Joint Conference, the pickup truck market sold 39,000 vehicles in July 2023, a year-on-year decrease of 10% and a month-on-month decrease of 15%, which is at a medium-to-high level in the past five years. Due to the strong pickup truck production last summer, the real estate market is sluggish this year, but the overall pickup truck demand situation has improved under the consumption promotion policy. Under the combined influence, the overall pickup truck sales in January-July 2023 were 294,000, a year-on-year decrease of 3%, a relatively small decrease. As China maintains good relations with European and American countries, overseas market demand has surged, driving China's pickup truck exports to continue to grow since the second half of last year. This is also a common feature of the overall strengthening of automobile exports in the automotive industry.

In July this year, pickup truck production fell 15.6% year-on-year, sales fell 10% year-on-year, and exports were 10,200 units, down 14% year-on-year. The seasonal decline in the domestic market was relatively stable, especially the pickup truck sales in the county and township markets increased steadily year-on-year, effectively offsetting the shrinkage of pickup trucks in large cities. From January to July 2023, the overall pickup truck sales volume was 294,000, and the year-on-year trend was relatively stable. Under the pressure of the sluggish real estate environment, driven by consumption promotion policies, China's pickup truck production and sales performance will remain relatively stable in 2023.

The year-on-year decline in pickup truck sales in July was due to the high base last year, and pickup trucks were still strong overall in the first half of the year. Great Wall Motors maintained its strong pickup truck leadership, and Jiangling Motors, Zhengzhou Nissan, and Jiangxi Isuzu performed well in the domestic pickup truck market. Some pickup truck companies seized the export opportunity to achieve strong growth. Great Wall Pickup, JAC Motors, SAIC Maxus, and Foton Motor had strong export trends, and exports accounted for more than 22% of the total sales of some manufacturers. The pickup trucks of the main manufacturers in the domestic retail market are still stable, and the domestic pickup truck market is relatively stable. The pickup trucks of Great Wall, Jiangling, Zhengzhou Nissan, and Jiangxi Isuzu are stable. The domestic electric pickup truck market is gradually starting, and electric pickup trucks such as Geely Radar are gradually cultivating the market.

1. Overall analysis of the pickup truck market 

1. Comparison of national pickup truck market trends in July

In July 2023, the pickup truck market sold 39,000 units, down 10% year-on-year and 15% month-on-month, which is at a medium-to-high level in the past five years. Due to the obstruction of pickup truck production under the epidemic from March to May last year, the low base contributed greatly. The pickup truck demand situation improved this year, resulting in strong domestic and foreign sales performance of pickup trucks in 2023. Overseas demand surged, driving the continued growth of pickup truck exports, which is also a common feature of the automotive industry in terms of strong exports.

In 2018, pickup truck sales reached 450,000, an increase of 10%; in 2019, the cumulative sales of pickup trucks reached 440,000, a year-on-year decrease of 3%; in 2020, the sales of pickup trucks reached 480,000, a year-on-year increase of 9%, which is relatively strong.

In 2021, light trucks were stimulated by the governance of overload, and the growth gradually came to an end. The sales volume of pickup trucks in 2021 was 550,000, a year-on-year increase of 14%, which is a strong performance compared with traditional light trucks.

The overall pickup truck trend in 2022 was relatively stable, reaching 513,000 units, a 6% decrease from 2021. Compared with the sharp year-on-year decline in trucks, the production and sales performance of pickup trucks was still very good.

From January to July 2023, the total pickup truck sales volume was 294,000, a year-on-year decrease of 3%. The trend of pickup trucks was relatively stable. Based on the trends in the past two years, pickup trucks performed better than light trucks.

2. Monthly trends of pickup truck market over the years

The pickup truck wholesale market trend fluctuated greatly in 2022, and was weaker in July 2023. The Spring Festival in 2023 was earlier than in previous years, so after the rise in February and March, the month-on-month trend in April-June in previous years was basically declining, but the pickup truck trend in May-June this year stabilized and rebounded slightly, and fell significantly in July.

Pickup trucks are means of production. Since there are relatively few pickup trucks purchased before the Spring Festival, pickup truck sales enter the peak season from March to July after the Spring Festival. This is also a growth point for demand in real estate, engineering projects and unit purchases.

The sales volume of passenger cars represents the quality of life and pursuit of Chinese consumers, but the sales volume of commercial vehicles represents the development status of China's small enterprises and small private owners. Only when the demand for commercial vehicles increases and basic people's livelihood issues are resolved, can the passenger car market have the possibility of recovery.

The pickup truck market also directly reflects the development of small private owners. The pickup truck market represented by Great Wall has become the vanguard of the post-epidemic recovery of the auto market. However, with the downturn in the real estate market and the greater operating pressure on the tertiary industry, the pickup truck market is also difficult to recover. Due to the rapid and active overseas pickup truck export market, the pickup truck market is becoming increasingly complex.

As the trendy play culture and travel of the middle-aged group are restricted, the space for self-driving and suburban tours has increased, and more people are choosing pickup trucks for travel.

3. Pickup truck exports performed strongly

The national pickup truck market exported a total of 128,000 pickup trucks in 2022, a growth rate of 65%. This year, the overall pickup truck industry represented by Great Wall has strong exports, with 66,000 pickup trucks exported from January to July, and the industry's export share continues to remain high. In 2023, it accounted for 22% of pickup trucks, an increase of 6% over the export volume in 2022. China's independent pickup truck exports have increased rapidly.

2. Analysis of pickup truck market environment

1. Pickup trucks are becoming more passenger-oriented

The China Passenger Car Association Pickup Truck Market Information Joint Committee has always believed that pickup trucks are an important part of the passenger car market segment and are closely related to SUV consumer demand.

In recent years, there have been more and more policy suggestions on the passengerization of pickup trucks, which reflects the urgent need for pickup trucks to be passenger cars in the current domestic market. At this year's National People's Congress, representatives such as Geely's Li Shufu, Xiaomi's Lei Jun, and JAC Group's Cheng Tao all made relevant suggestions on pickup trucks. Among them, "classifying pickup trucks as passenger cars" has become the core of the suggestions.

3. Regional Characteristics of Pickup Truck Sales

1. Regional changes in the pickup truck market    

The pickup truck market is mainly located in the northwest and southwest regions, with the western region seeing a large demand for pickup trucks. Pickup truck demand in the northwest region was strong in July. Currently, pickup truck demand in the southwest and northwest regions accounts for more than 45% of the total demand, becoming the two core markets, with the northwest market showing a strong performance.

The western market has maintained a relatively stable trend recently, while the eastern region has declined. The relatively fast growth in the early stage was in North China and the Yellow River region in the middle, and the pickup truck market in Northeast China also showed obvious signs of starting up. However, at present, the pickup truck market in East China and South China has not grown significantly.

Pickup trucks still perform relatively well in the northern and central-western markets. This is also because the market economies in the northern and central-western regions are relatively inactive, and demand is mainly driven by investment and engineering construction.

The development of private passenger pickup trucks needs to be further strengthened. The pickup truck sales in Beijing, Tianjin and Shanghai have recovered significantly this year, and the recent Great Wall passenger pickup trucks are worth looking forward to.

2. Analysis of pickup truck sales regions

The main sales areas of the pickup truck market are still mainly small and medium-sized cities and county and township markets, especially the county and township markets, which are relatively strong. The performance of medium-sized cities and Beijing, which have purchase restrictions, is particularly prominent in July 2023. The county and township market remains stable, and the large city market currently has no obvious breakthrough characteristics.

The market in megacities is gradually shrinking after the outbreak, while the Beijing market is performing well among the cities with purchase restrictions. The markets of Shenzhen and Tianjin, which performed relatively strongly in the early stage, are in a weak state. Xi'an and Chengdu are performing relatively strongly. Hangzhou is a large market with a larger area than Beijing, and its pickup truck demand in the tea grower market is relatively good.

4. Competition Analysis of China’s Pickup Truck Market

1. Analysis of pickup truck manufacturers’ performance

In 2023, the main manufacturers in the pickup truck market performed well. Great Wall Motor Pickup maintained a stable and absolute dominant position, Jiangling Motors' leading position was stable, and Zhengzhou Nissan and others maintained a strong and stable position.

This is the overall sales trend of manufacturers at home and abroad. Recently, some pickup truck companies have performed relatively well, and exports have helped some companies to perform outstandingly. In July, the pickup trucks of Great Wall Motors and Beiqi Foton Motors performed well.

With the explosive growth of the export market, SAIC Maxus, JAC, and Changan Pickup have risen rapidly, forming a pattern of leading companies squeezing the sales of trailing companies.

Recently, pickup truck manufacturers from traditional large groups have been very strong, especially SAIC Maxus and other companies with outstanding export performance. Great Wall's pickup trucks have performed well both at home and abroad, and the vitality of new product launches is strong. Jiangling pickup trucks have recovered quickly. Relatively speaking, the pickup trucks of SAIC Maxus and Changan Automobile, which are relatively new forces, have performed well.

In 2023, SAIC-GM-Wuling's new products gradually showed a steady trend, which did not significantly change the pickup truck pattern. JAC Motors, Changan Automobile, and BAIC Foton performed well. Exports drove SAIC Maxus Automobile, JAC Motors, Foton, and Changan Automobile to perform strongly in terms of total volume.

2. Pickup Truck Manufacturer Market Share Trend

Great Wall pickup trucks still rank first in exports, but the export performance of Maxus and other pickup trucks is very strong. Due to the convenient export conditions in Jiangsu and Zhejiang, Maxus's exports have grown rapidly.

4. Monthly sales trend of pickup truck market

Since 2020, with the upgrade of National VI, the speed of pickup truck product updates has accelerated, and this year the pickup truck market has entered a period of adjustment. According to the pickup truck market tracking of the China Passenger Car Association Pickup Truck Market Joint Committee, Great Wall pickup trucks occupy an absolute dominant position in the pickup truck trend. In the early stage, Great Wall Commercial Cannon and Fengjun 7 pickup trucks performed well, and recently King Kong Cannon has performed strongly.

In 2023, the growth will mainly come from the Northwest region and county and township markets. The growth will mainly come from the existing fields of engineering construction, municipal administration, electricity, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, wholesale and retail industries, as well as new customers such as high-end, passenger and off-road vehicles.

As China's aging population intensifies, the aging trend of migrant workers is obvious, and the trend of migrant workers returning to their hometowns is obvious, which has driven the recovery of small cities and county and township markets. The main models of traditional mainstream car companies have performed very well, Great Wall's product innovation has been very good, and new products such as the King Kong Cannon have performed outstandingly.