Observation on Brazil's new energy vehicle industry: small scale but fast growth, Chinese manufacturers have an absolute advantage

In the past few years, the global new energy vehicle market has experienced a roller coaster ride.

Three years ago, major global automobile markets and mainstream automobile manufacturers all proposed aggressive electrification goals. But three years later, with the exception of China, the development of new energy vehicles in other major economies seems to have stagnated.

But Brazil, the economic leader in South America, is an exception. Its electric vehicle industry continues to maintain a rapid development momentum.

According to data from the Brazilian Automobile Dealers Association, in August 2024, Brazil's sales of new pure electric and hybrid vehicles totaled 14,450 units, a year-on-year increase of 55.6%; from January to August, Brazil's cumulative sales of pure electric and hybrid vehicles reached 10,835 units, a year-on-year increase of 122.6%.

In comparison, Brazil's annual electric vehicle sales in 2023 were only 94,000. According to the forecast of Brazilian authorities, Brazil's electric vehicle sales will exceed 150,000 by the end of 2024, which will set a record high.

In terms of penetration rate, Brazil's new energy vehicle performance is not good. In August 2024, Brazil's passenger car sales reached 170,000 units. According to this calculation, Brazil's new energy vehicle penetration rate is less than 10%, which is a huge gap compared with China.

However, compared with economies other than China, Brazil's new energy vehicle performance is strong. The monthly sales of about 15,000 vehicles is considered a "high base" globally, but Brazil's new energy vehicles can still maintain a high growth rate of more than 50%, which is quite difficult.

It is worth mentioning that Brazil's new energy vehicle market is relatively complex. Among the so-called electric vehicles, pure electric models account for about 60%, while plug-in hybrid models account for about 30%, and extended-range electric models have basically no presence.

Which manufacturers sell these electric vehicles in Brazil?

Data shows that from January to August 2024, Brazil's sales of new energy vehicles reached 108,000 units, of which BYD itself contributed 45,000 units, accounting for more than 40%, which is higher than its share in the Chinese new energy vehicle market.

In addition to BYD, Great Wall Motors and Toyota Motors also rank among the top three in the Brazilian new energy vehicle market. They are the only three manufacturers with monthly sales of more than 1,500 vehicles. In addition, Geely's Volvo new energy vehicle sales have exceeded Mercedes-Benz, and the joint venture established by Chery and CAOA, the largest local dealer group in Brazil, can also rank in the top 5.

That is to say, among the top five new energy vehicle sales in Brazil, four have Chinese backgrounds.

In addition, there is another interesting aspect of the Brazilian new energy market, that is, luxury brands generally perform strongly. The sales of Mercedes-Benz, BMW, Land Rover and Porsche even exceed those of ordinary brands such as Honda, Kia and Peugeot, which is relatively rare in the global new energy vehicle market.

From the perspective of the entire industry, Brazil's new energy vehicle industry is still in its early embryonic stage, so most new energy vehicles enter the Brazilian market as imports.

However, Brazil's economic development prospects are good, the domestic consumer market is relatively broad, and Brazil's industrial policies under Lula are relatively stable, thus attracting a large number of automobile manufacturers to invest.

Since 2024, General Motors, Volkswagen, Hyundai, Toyota and other manufacturers have successively announced investments in the electric vehicle industry in Brazil, with investment scales exceeding US$1 billion. Stellantis has even announced an investment of more than US$6 billion in Brazil before 2030. Major manufacturers are still optimistic about the development prospects of Brazil's electric vehicle industry.

As the world's largest new energy vehicle market, China has enough reasons to invest in the Brazilian market. Data shows that since 2021, all of China's investment projects in the Brazilian automotive industry are related to electric vehicles, with the investment amount reaching US$568 million in 2023. BYD and Great Wall took over Ford and Mercedes-Benz's factories in Brazil respectively.

Like most economies in the world, Brazil's electric vehicle industry also faces the problem of underdeveloped charging infrastructure. According to authoritative forecasts, Brazil will have 2,140 charging stations in 2024. This number is not a lot, but considering that a large part of Brazil's territory is sparsely populated tropical rainforest, this problem is not very serious.

It is worth mentioning that Brazil has always attached great importance to the development of new energy vehicles. Since the 1970s, the Brazilian government has been promoting the plan to replace gasoline with alcohol. So far, more than 85% of cars in Brazil are added with alcohol. In other words, Brazil has a consensus on the development of new energy vehicles and is unlikely to go backwards like Europe.

As early as 2015, the Brazilian government decided to exempt import tariffs on pure electric vehicles with a range of more than 80 km. According to the Brazilian government's plan, electric vehicle sales will account for 30% of Brazil's total car sales in 2030, and tax incentives of up to 19 billion reais will be provided before 2028.

In addition to policy convenience, Brazil has another advantage in the field of electric vehicles, that is, it has relatively rich mineral resources, which most European countries do not have.

The core component of new energy vehicles is lithium batteries, and Brazil is one of the top ten lithium mine reserves and producers in the world. In 2022, the Brazilian government announced that it would lift the export of lithium mines and their products since the 1970s. So far, BYD, CATL, Volkswagen and many global lithium mining giants have announced their entry into the Brazilian lithium mining industry.

With such advantages, Brazil can attract more new energy vehicle manufacturers to settle in to reduce upstream raw material costs and overall production costs. This is Brazil's unique advantage as a country with rich lithium resources.

From the current situation, Brazil's new energy vehicle industry is in its infancy, with an imperfect industrial chain and low technical level, but Brazil's new energy vehicle industry also has various advantages such as rich resources, stable policies, and strong domestic demand. The goal set by the Brazilian government to increase the penetration rate of new energy vehicles to 30% by 2030 should not be difficult to achieve.

As a winner of Toutiao's Qingyun Plan and Baijiahao's Bai+ Plan, the 2019 Baidu Digital Author of the Year, the Baijiahao's Most Popular Author in the Technology Field, the 2019 Sogou Technology and Culture Author, and the 2021 Baijiahao Quarterly Influential Creator, he has won many awards, including the 2013 Sohu Best Industry Media Person, the 2015 China New Media Entrepreneurship Competition Beijing Third Place, the 2015 Guangmang Experience Award, the 2015 China New Media Entrepreneurship Competition Finals Third Place, and the 2018 Baidu Dynamic Annual Powerful Celebrity.