The world of mini programs behind the data: mini games dominate, while retail programs perform steadily

Mini Programs are about to turn two years old when WeChat’s internal beta test began on September 21, 2016. During these two years, the Mini Program industry has undergone a dramatic change.

Comparing the first batch of WeChat Mini Programs ***00 on the day of their official launch on January 9, 2017, with the WeChat Mini Programs ***00 in August 2018, you will be surprised to find that these are two completely different lists. There are no more than 10 duplicate mini programs on both sides, which means that more than 90% of the developers have disappeared from the list.

Not only are developers and users pouring in, but the number of apps that provide mini-program entrances has also increased from one WeChat to four. In this article, Xiong Chumo will start with those representative details, sort out the changing trends in the mini-program field, and discuss the future industry structure and direction.

Internal struggle of mini programs

When looking at the ***00 most popular WeChat mini-programs list in August 2018 provided by the Aladdin mini-program statistics platform, the most intuitive feeling is that “they are all mini-games”.

Moreover, many of them are familiar to us, such as Jump Jump, Happy Landlord, Pirates Are Coming, Friends Circle, etc. If you count carefully, there are more than 40 games.

As we all know, the first mini-game officially launched by WeChat was on December 28, 2017. Looking at the list from October to November 2017, the top rankings are still the retail, tools and travel mini-programs. In December, Jump Jump, which was only online for 4 days, successfully topped the list. Since then, mini-games have grown wildly.

Data from January 15, 2018 showed that Jump Jump had more than 100 million daily active users, and WeChat Mini Games had accumulated 310 million users. This was also directly reflected in the list, with Mini Games gradually taking over the living space of other Mini Programs in the top 100, and eventually growing into the largest category.

Each has its own niche, and the good days of other mini programs have come to an end, and they have begun to make room for mini games in the charts. For example, in the first batch of tools, there were 27 in the ***00 list, and there were still 27 in October and November before the mini games were launched. But in the *** list, there are only 4 tools left.

Of course, it is not ruled out that some mini programs can withstand the impact of mini games, or even advance and retreat with mini games. Shopping and retail mini programs are a strong representative. In October and November 2017, there were 27 retail mini programs in the ***00 list. After the mini games were launched in December, the number was reduced to 20. In last month's list, there were also 20 retail mini programs, and retail mini programs can still be seen in the top ten.

Comparing the two white papers on the mini program ecosystem released by the Aladdin mini program statistics platform in November last year and June this year, we can also reach the same conclusion. In 2017, the retail category had the largest number of visits by C-end users of mini programs, accounting for 24%. In the first half of 2018, although the top spot was taken by mini games, its 22.7% share was only a slight fluctuation compared with last year, so the performance is still stable.

The above data is actually consistent with the trend of the top 100 WeChat mini-programs given by the Aladdin mini-program statistics platform. Mini-games and shopping retail mini-programs have firmly established themselves as the top two categories. Mini-game users are gradually developing a habit, with the average number of minutes spent per person increasing from 14.7 to 17.1 in August. The number of online shopping mini-programs on the list is also increasing, with an increase of 2% in August compared to July.

The reason for this is that, on the one hand, users make choices based on their own needs, and many mini-programs that are not suitable for the WeChat ecosystem are gradually eliminated under the law of natural selection and survival of the fittest. On the other hand, WeChat frequently "gives the green light" to mini-games and shopping retail mini-programs, and continuously opens up more permissions, which also contributes to their rise.

For example, we often hear the term "social e-commerce". This concept has spawned a large number of e-commerce mini-programs. The most obvious example is Pinduoduo, which has accumulated 300 million users in three years since its establishment and successfully listed. Social e-commerce has played an indispensable role. Pinduoduo's mini-programs are often ranked in the top ten, and have been ranked first many times before Tiaoyitiao went online.

Others that performed well include JD.com and Mogujie. If you pay a little attention, you will find that most of these top-ranked mini programs are related to Tencent. This is understandable, after all, Tencent needs partners to prove the huge potential of mini programs. QuestMobile data also shows that 46% of developers who currently enjoy the traffic dividend of mini programs belong to Tencent and companies invested by Tencent.

Apart from mini games and shopping retail, the development of mini programs that do not enjoy special support is often not as satisfactory as expected. For example, the earliest batch of sign-in punch card, Pomato alarm clock, Mayu App, and tool apps such as red envelope stores and group applications that were once on the list have long been thrown out of the ***00 list.

Outsmart rather than brute force

Nearly half of the dividends were pocketed by Tencent, which is undoubtedly a big challenge for Baidu, Alipay, and the new entrant Toutiao in the mini program battlefield. In addition, given that WeChat mini programs have accumulated more than 600 million users with the support of a natural traffic pool of 1 billion, if they want to win this battle, they can only use their wits to win instead of attacking with force.

From the development trajectory of the past two years, it can be seen that WeChat tends to be closed in its construction of the mini-program ecosystem, and developers and users can only operate within the circle defined by WeChat. This has both advantages and disadvantages. The advantage is that developers and users can fully experience the smoothness, seamlessness and order brought by the WeChat ecosystem. The disadvantage is that activities are restricted and mini-programs cannot jump out of WeChat to other platforms.

At present, Toutiao and Alipay are following the same path as WeChat. On September 17, Toutiao was reported to be testing mini-programs. Later, Toutiao officially responded that it was to provide more abundant services to users with different needs, but the mini-program entrance is only for Android system and is temporarily only open to some enterprises.

Alipay also attaches great importance to mini programs. On September 12, it announced the establishment of a mini program division and invested 1 billion in innovation funds within three years to assist developers and merchants. So far, Alipay has accumulated more than 20,000 mini programs and 300 million users. As Alipay gradually opens mini programs to individual developers in the future, this scale should continue to expand.

Guan Zhong, general manager of the Alipay Mini Program Division, also announced the "718+X" model, which is to create a closed loop of Alipay Mini Programs that can promote activation, attract new users, and retain users through seven entrances such as Alipay scanning, search, and collection. X refers to "one-time development and multi-terminal use". Guan Zhong listed Alipay, AutoNavi Maps, DingTalk, Alibaba and other platforms. It can be seen that all of this is also built within Alibaba's own ecosystem.

In contrast, Baidu's open strategy is unique. After officially launching mini programs on July 4, Baidu also mentioned in its financial report released on August 1 that it will focus on building an open ecosystem of smart mini programs. Like WeChat, Toutiao, and Alipay, Baidu also provides many entrances for smart mini programs, such as search and information flow. Baidu said that it will directly open up hundreds of billions of traffic in the entire domain to developers.

But the difference is that Baidu has promised to fully open source the platform by the end of this year. The benefit of this is that the smart applets developed by developers can run not only on the Baidu App, but also on the apps of open source partners. This also means that Internet traffic other than WeChat, Alipay, and Toutiao can theoretically be used by developers. From the perspective of developers, "develop once and run on multiple terminals" has become a reality.

Currently, this is impossible to achieve on other platforms, such as WeChat. Because WeChat Mini Programs have their own set of development tools and standards, the final Mini Program is only applicable to WeChat. If you want to run across platforms, developers have to rewrite a set of codes. To make a simple analogy, Baidu's open ecosystem is like Android, while WeChat, Toutiao, and Alipay are more closed than iOS.

In addition, in the mini-program war, each platform should also find its own advantages and play to its strengths and avoid its weaknesses. WeChat's genes are social, Alipay's genes are payment, and Baidu's genes are search + AI, which determines that their focus is different. As mentioned in the previous article, WeChat has focused on mini-games and shopping retail mini-programs for this reason.

In terms of content, data from two white papers by the Aladdin Mini Program Statistics Platform showed that in 2017 and the first half of 2018, the C-end visits to content and information mini programs on WeChat mini programs were 3% and 3.5% respectively, which is nearly 10 times lower than that of mini games.

This also means that other companies can focus on content, services and tools to fill the gaps in the WeChat mini-program field. Among them, Alipay mainly focuses on travel, catering, fast-moving consumer goods, scenic spots, hotels, logistics, medical care and other fields, while Baidu mainly promotes a comprehensive recommendation platform of "content + service + tool + product". Among them, content is Baidu's advantage field, and in terms of tools, it mainly promotes AI. At present, Baidu Smart Mini Program has opened the capabilities of Baidu Brain 3.0 to developers, including voice, text, image and face recognition.

At this point, the bloody battles in the mini program world have been basically introduced. It is undeniable that WeChat, which took the lead, has a clear lead, but Alipay, Baidu and even Toutiao should not be underestimated, especially Baidu, which has chosen a different route from WeChat. It is possible that Baidu will overtake WeChat in the future. We will wait and see.