5G phones in 2019: expensive, battery-hungry, and not very useful

In 2019, do you want to keep up with the trend and buy a 5G mobile phone? However, according to current analysis, it may be expensive, consume power quickly, generate a lot of heat, have poor signal, and have no new applications. Faced with such a situation, are you going to be one of the first to "eat crabs"?

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5G mobile phones may be too expensive

Last week, the price of the Samsung S10 phone, which is expected to be released next month, was exposed by Korean media. The starting price of the 5.8-inch S10E/Lite is 800,000 to 900,000 won (about RMB 4,831 to 5,435), the starting price of the 6.4-inch S10+ is 1.4 to 1.6 million won (about RMB 8,456 to 9,663), and the starting price of the 6.7-inch Galaxy S10 X will be as high as 1.6 to 1.8 million won (about RMB 9,663 to 10,800). Among them, the S10 X version, which costs about 10,000 yuan, is the rumored 5G version of the S10 phone. In other words, the price of the 5G version of the phone is even twice the starting price of the series.

At the China Mobile Partner Conference in 2018, Wang Hengjiang, deputy general manager of China Mobile Terminal Company, predicted that among the 5G pre-commercial terminal products that China Mobile plans to launch in 2019, the price of 5G mobile phones may be more than 8,000 yuan, and the price of data terminals may be more than 3,000 yuan.

Recently, Digitimes reported that in 2019, domestic 5G mobile phones will be priced at a price increase of at least RMB 500, because all currently launched 5G mobile phones need to add a 5G chip module separately, and the cost of this module and related materials is about RMB 300-400. According to insiders of OEM manufacturers, the cost of the new generation of 5G Modem chips equipped with new AP chips is about US$50 (about RMB 340). If the cost of antennas, PCBs and materials is added, the total cost of the entire 5G mobile phone is about US$80 (about RMB 540), so mobile phone manufacturers need to increase the price by at least RMB 500 to ensure that they do not lose money.

However, judging from the current selling prices of 5G mobile phones, manufacturers obviously do not want to increase the price by just 500 yuan, because in addition to the materials mentioned above, 5G mobile phones in 2019 must also carry at least a large battery to ensure the experience, which will naturally become part of the cost.

Is 5000 mAh the minimum battery capacity?

The leaked parameter information of Samsung S10 also reveals the "specialness" of 5G mobile phones in terms of battery capacity. In the S10 series, S10E/Lite will be equipped with a 3100 mAh battery, S10+ will be equipped with a 4100 mAh battery, and the rumored 5G version of S10, Galaxy S10 X, will be equipped with a 5000 mAh battery. Such battery capacity is unprecedented compared to mobile phones of major brands in 2018.

Coincidentally, the 5G module that Motorola provided for the Moto Z3 phone also has a built-in 2000 mAh battery, and the Moto Z3 phone itself has a 3000 mAh battery. The total capacity of the phone and the 5G module is also 5000 mAh, which is consistent with the battery capacity of the 5G version of the S10 phone. Perhaps the minimum capacity given by mobile phone manufacturers for 5G phones is 5000 mAh.

In fact, as early as the Boao Forum for Asia in 2018, Apple expressed its concerns that the current 5G technology might affect the battery life of mobile phones. It should be noted that Apple's products have always liked to use lower battery capacity, and through its own chips, it has highly optimized energy consumption management and relied on the good integration of software and hardware to ensure the battery life of mobile phones. At that time, Ge Yue, Apple's global vice president, said that Apple will fully embrace 5G technology only after ensuring that important indicators such as energy consumption and battery temperature after using 5G mobile phones are not problematic and do not affect user experience. It can be seen that for Apple, which has just broken the 3000 mAh mark in the battery capacity of its own iPhone XS Max, it is estimated that it is difficult to consider a super-large battery like 5000 mAh built into the phone. In addition, the industry is currently more inclined to believe that Apple will not launch a 5G mobile phone in 2019.

So why do 5G phones seem to consume so much power? The reason is that this year, major chip manufacturers have not yet launched SoC solutions with built-in 5G modems. Whether it is Snapdragon 855, Exynos 9820, or Kirin 980, there is no built-in support for 5G networks. They need to use their own Snapdragon X50, Exynos 5100, or Balong 5000 to achieve 5G functions, which undoubtedly increases the power consumption of mobile phones. For example, the Snapdragon 855 uses a 7nm process, while the external X50 modem uses a 28nm process, which will obviously affect the power consumption of the phone and even pose new challenges to the phone's heat control. Similarly, the Exynos 5100 uses a 10nm process, which is also one generation behind the 8nm process of the Exynos 9820.

Insufficient coverage, not very useful

In the 3G and 4G era, most consumers basically get a good network coverage after upgrading to the 3G/4G network and using the corresponding terminals. This may not happen in the 5G era. At present, operators have not yet recovered the construction costs of the 4G network, and the scale of 5G base station construction will be more intensive than 3G/4G. The number of base stations is about 4-5 times that of 4G, and the cost of building stations has increased significantly. According to Deutsche Telekom's estimate of the investment cost of 5G networks, the investment in 5G wireless access accounts for 50% to 70% of the total investment in 5G. Therefore, there are still uncertainties in the enthusiasm and speed of operators for 5G network coverage.

According to Forrester's estimate in last year's report, it will take until 2025 for enterprise customers and consumers to see 50% global coverage. At present, researchers from domestic operators have predicted that since it is difficult for 5G to achieve deep coverage, it can only focus on coverage in the early stage. The coverage speed of 5G will be much slower than 3G and 4G, and it may take 5-10 years to achieve coverage. In the future, 5G will coexist with 4G networks for a long time, with 5G adopted in cities and 4G coverage still used in rural areas.

That is to say, even if consumers spend a lot of money to buy 5G mobile phones in 2019, they may still face the situation of no network available in most cases. In the long run, based on the current replacement cycle of each consumer gradually extending to 24 months, it may take until consumers replace their second or even third 5G mobile phones before 5G networks begin to be widely covered.

In addition, judging from the industry's current expectations for killer applications in the 5G era, whether it is VR/AR, edge computing, AI, driverless driving, industrial Internet, or telemedicine, they do not seem to be closely related to mobile phones. Mobile phones are by no means the biggest beneficiaries of the 5G era, and their status may even be squeezed by other emerging terminals. In other words, representative killer products or applications in the 3G and 4G eras, such as iPhone and WeChat, may not even appear in the consumer market in the 5G era.