How much does the new coronavirus vaccine cost? How will the price of the new coronavirus vaccine be determined in the future?

What is the price of the COVID-19 vaccine? How will the COVID-19 vaccine be priced in the future?

In May this year, the National Research Council of Canada announced in an official statement that it would cooperate with China's CanSino Biologics to develop a new crown vaccine, enter clinical trials in Canada and start subsequent production work. However, CanSino's production capacity has not yet been implemented, and the order volume has not been disclosed to the public, making it difficult for the outside world to predict the expected benefits of its new crown vaccine.

Guosen Securities research report believes that the total global demand for new crown vaccines is about 10 billion doses, which has exceeded the annual output in any year in history. The new crown vaccine will change the global vaccine industry.
It is estimated that the global market price of the new crown vaccine will be US$3 to US$40 per dose, and the Chinese market price will be RMB 20 to 200 per dose. At present, vaccine companies with advanced research and development progress have already received orders from some governments. According to statistics from Guosen Securities, the government's order purchase volume is huge, and vaccine manufacturers such as Pflzer and AZ have received order purchase volumes in the hundreds of millions.
Essence Securities research report also predicted the market space of the new crown vaccine with reference to the influenza A vaccine: As far as the domestic market is concerned, my country will most likely adopt a model of centralized storage as the main method and sales of Class II vaccines as the supplementary method for the new crown vaccine in the future. Assuming that the future vaccination rate of my country's new crown vaccine will be 60%-80%, the vaccination procedure is 2 injections per person, and the average purchase and storage price is 20-30 yuan per dose, the corresponding domestic market space will be 33.6 billion to 67.2 billion yuan. Calculated based on a net profit margin of 50%, the corresponding profit space is 16.8 billion to 33.6 billion yuan.
As far as foreign markets are concerned, it is expected that my country's new crown vaccine will be mainly exported to middle- and low-income countries. Assuming that my country's export new crown vaccine vaccination rate is 10%-15%, the vaccination procedure is 2 injections per person, and the average export price is US$2.5 per dose (refer to AstraZeneca's pricing), the corresponding export market space is 12.5 billion to 18.7 billion yuan. Calculated based on a net profit margin of 40%, the corresponding profit space is 5 billion to 7.5 billion yuan.