Some time ago, Migu Reading launched the "Check in for 100 days and get a Kindle for free" campaign. The author of this article conducted a detailed analysis based on this campaign, analyzing the campaign's early promotion, sales, success and failure rates, revenue, and possible impacts. Let's take a look.

Some time ago, I participated in the "Check in for 100 days, get a free Kindle" activity initiated by Migu Reading. Unfortunately, I failed on the 19th day.

With the idea of ​​paying the IQ tax and wanting to earn back some of the tuition fees, let's analyze the Migu Reading activities, do an activity breakdown and prediction, and accumulate some output for myself.

Activity description: Check in for 100 days and get a free Kindle

Activity rules: Check in on the Migu Reading app for 100 days and get a refund on the cost of purchasing a Kindle.

Rules pitfalls:

1. Due to the product’s promotional copy, many users thought that they could just read on Kindle, but in reality the entire check-in process needs to be done on the Migu Reading APP. Throughout the entire activity, Kindle is really just used for free.
2. The event period is from May 18th to June 28th, but the event started from July 1st to July 31st, and the time in between is easy to forget.
3. Migu Reading changed some of the terms of the event after it started. Although the terms may have little impact on most users, judging from channels such as Weibo and Zhihu, it did cause some users to fail to check in without knowing the situation.

Next, I will analyze this activity from the following perspectives:

1. Pre-event promotion
2. Activity sales forecast
3. Prediction of success rate and failure rate of activity check-in
4. Activity revenue analysis
5. Possible negative effects
6. Summarize

1. Early promotion of the event

As a free activity, it has a strong self-propagation ability. It is very attractive for users to get a free Kindle by checking in for 100 days.

At this stage, if you search on public platforms such as Zhihu, Weibo, and WeChat, you can still find many public account tweets or speeches by interested people at that time.

Therefore, I believe that the initial promotional investment for this activity is not large, and the selling point of getting a free Kindle alone is enough to stimulate users' desire for self-propagation.

2. Activity Sales Forecast

According to the activity rules, there are six major purchasing channels for Migu Reading to participate in the event, including Tmall, JD.com, Pinduoduo, Taobao, Migu Reading, and official accounts. Each channel also has multiple designated special sales entrances.

Judging from the popularity of the event, only about a week after the launch, stores such as Tmall and JD.com experienced warehouse overflow and stock out. Although the supply was increased in time later, the event still ended before the planned sales deadline, which shows how popular it was.

Judging from the sales of the event, the original link on the Tmall platform has been removed and the specific sales volume is unknown. However, judging from the popularity of each platform and the success of the event, it is expected that sales will easily reach at least four-digit levels.

3. Prediction of Punch-in Success Rate and Failure Rate

Next, we will make a prediction on the check-in success rate and failure rate of Migu Reading. In order to make a better prediction and to better support my prediction results, let us first discuss the user portrait of Migu Reading and the user portrait of the people who participate in the check-in.

1. User portrait of Migu Reading

Considering that Migu Reading has a large user base, ranks high in the industry, and has long been at the top of the iOS newspaper and magazine list, we will temporarily use the overall portrait of online reading users in 2019 instead of the Migu Reading user portrait.

1) Gender and age distribution

In terms of gender distribution, the ratio of men to women is basically equal. The age trend is getting younger, which shows that online literature has a generally younger audience due to its distinctive characteristics of reading freedom and rich genres.

2) Educational background and occupational distribution

Judging from the distribution of educational background and occupation, nearly 70% of online reading users have a bachelor's degree. This is related to the fact that people with a bachelor's degree have strong learning ability and develop reading habits relatively quickly.

Among the occupational distribution, corporate white-collar workers have the highest enthusiasm for reading, accounting for nearly 40%. Analyzing the reasons, it is found that the strong reading preference of corporate white-collar workers is correlated with the popularity of Internet learning culture.

3) Geographical distribution

According to data from iResearch mUserTracker, in terms of geographical distribution, Guangdong Province has the highest proportion of digital reading users, followed by Jiangsu Province and Zhejiang Province. Digital reading users are mostly concentrated in the more economically developed eastern regions.

Analyzing the reasons behind this, people in economically developed regions have a high overall quality of life and attach great importance to culture, education, and reading. Therefore, they are the most core and main group of people in the online reading industry.

4) User reading frequency, time period, and duration

Regarding reading frequency, nearly 70% of users read almost every day. For them, reading is a habit, and the purpose may be to kill time or to improve themselves.

As for reading time, most of it happens before going to bed, followed by commuting and breaks between work and classes.

Taking the scene before going to bed as an example, analyzing the reading time, nearly 40% of users read for 30 minutes to 1 hour, which accounts for the highest proportion. Judging from the length of time, reading brings users more immersion and pleasure.

5) User reading preferences

Urban workplace is the theme that is closest to real life and easiest to resonate with, with 50.7% of users preferring it, followed by suspense and mystery and historical military, accounting for 48.6% and 44.2% respectively.

At the same time, regarding the reading preferences of different age groups, there is not much difference in the overall preference for each subject matter.

However, it is worth noting that fantasy, supernatural science fiction, new types of novels (such as the second dimension), and game competitions are more popular among the 19-25 and 26-35 age groups. This shows that newer themes such as game competitions and new types of novels are more acceptable to young people, and have a low penetration rate among people over 36 years old.

2. User profile of people participating in the check-in

Here, let's briefly analyze the population portrait of the people who participated in the check-in. To a certain extent, some of the people who participated in the check-in are already users of Migu Reading. Here, the ratio is temporarily set at 4:6, that is, 40% of the user portraits are consistent with Migu Reading users, and 60% of the users are new users.

The user analysis of this group is more of my personal subjective judgment.

1) Gender and age distribution

In terms of the gender ratio of users, I think there may be more female users than male users, or even much more. This speculation mainly comes from the fact that women tend to be emotional when shopping and have a more frequent desire to shop. Therefore, we assume here that the male-to-female ratio is 4:6.

In terms of age structure, it is believed that the main age structure is consistent with the age distribution of Migu Reading users. This consideration is mainly based on two points:

1. Check in for the event and get a free Kindle. As a newer mobile reading device, Kindle has greater appeal among the younger user group, namely those aged 25-35 years old.
2. The activity is in the form of checking in and giving away free items. Therefore, some users aged 36-45 who are more sensitive to prices will also be interested in this and be willing to participate.

2) Educational background and occupational distribution

Considering that the distribution of educational background and occupation is closely related to the age of users, it is assumed here that the distribution of educational background and occupation is the same as that of Migu Reading.

3) Geographical distribution

Considering the geographical distribution, I think the users participating in the event may tend to move downwards, and more of them are those who are sensitive to price. Therefore, the number of people in first-tier cities may decrease relatively, while the number of people in second-tier cities may increase slightly.

4) User reading frequency, time period, and duration

First of all, we should start from the frequency of use and time period. The frequency of use for new users is at least once a day or more within the check-in period, and the overall reading frequency should be higher.

Judging from the distribution of reading time, more users may have just established a reading habit and rely on the 15-minute check-in mechanism. Therefore, the proportion of people reading for 15-30 minutes will increase, and the proportion of the other two time periods will decrease. The overall reading time is shorter than that of ordinary Migu reading users.

5) User reading preferences

From the perspective of reading preferences, there may not be much change in the user age group, but the inconsistent ratio of male to female users may bring about some changes in the overall reading habits of users.

It can also be seen from the reading big data of Migu Reading in 2017 that there are still some differences in reading habits between male and female users.

3. Based on the above analysis, let’s take a look at the check-in success and failure rate of the entire activity

1) Start from the user portrait

The age of participating users is mainly concentrated in the age group of 23-37 years old, and they generally have a high level of education, most of them have a bachelor's degree, and most of them are white-collar workers in companies. The population is mainly concentrated in the economically more developed eastern regions.

This part should be due to the fact that users generally have a certain degree of self-control, so based on the user portrait, it is believed that the check-in success rate is 70%.

2) Starting from the motivation for participating in the activity

Based on whether users have reading needs, we can divide the activity participants into two categories: those with reading needs and those without reading needs. Here the ratio between the two is set to 6:4.

Users with reading needs can be further divided into those who have the need and already have good reading habits and those who have the need but have not formed good reading habits. Here the ratio between the two is set to 4:6.

• Those who have demand and good reading habits: These users usually have reading habits and needs, and they participate in the event just to get a reward. Therefore, it is believed that the check-in success rate of these users is 75%.
• Have demand but have not formed good reading habits: This group of users may have the need to read, but the reading frequency is not high. They participate in the activities more because they are attracted to Kindle and think that they can establish reading habits at the same time. Therefore, the check-in success rate of these users is believed to be 65%.

Users who have no reading needs can be further divided into those who have no needs but have good reading habits and those who have no needs and have not formed good reading habits. Here the ratio between the two is set to 4:6.

• No demand but good reading habits: This group of users may have formed certain reading habits some time ago, but later discontinued them. Because they saw the free gift mechanism of checking in for activities, they thought it could help establish reading habits and free gifts. Therefore, the check-in success rate of these users is believed to be 60%.
• No demand and no good reading habits: This group of users had no reading demand and no good reading habits before, but because the event is too attractive or they have participated in similar check-in activities, these users think it is worthwhile to participate for free and help establish good habits. Therefore, the check-in success rate of these users is believed to be 45%.

3) Considerations for setting the check-in success rate

When setting the check-in success rate, in addition to considering some data of the user portrait, the user's reading preference is also taken into consideration.

As mentioned earlier, most users use online reading to read novels as a leisure and entertainment scenario. From the perspective of competition in scenarios, with the development of the Internet, more and more apps are available for users' leisure and entertainment. Tik Tok, Weibo, etc. will compete with users' leisure and entertainment time.

Furthermore, although the overall quality of the user base is relatively high and some users may have had successful check-in experiences on other platforms, most check-ins are still mainly for self-improvement, such as checking in to learn English, etc. This part of the content will encourage users to further exercise self-discipline.

However, users of Migu’s check-in activity may gradually relax their self-control in leisure and entertainment scenarios, resulting in check-in failure.

4) Summary

Based on the above analysis, here is a summary of the punch-in success rate and the final result is calculated:

After calculating the final total success rate, I personally still think it is a bit high. It may be that I set the success rate of user portraits too high. However, this success rate can still reflect some of the current situations to a certain extent.

IV. Activity Revenue Analysis

1. Profit from selling Kindle

According to my research, the Kindle and Migu models for this event are relatively old models with average configurations. In addition, most users are more inclined to buy ordinary Kindle models, so the sales of such models were not high before the event.

In addition, many users said that the Kindles they received from the event had problems such as rough workmanship and outdated packaging. To a certain extent, it can be understood that Migu launched such a large-scale event in order to clean up the Kindle models that cooperated with its own brand.

In terms of product pricing, the price given is 468 yuan. Although it is already a certain discount compared to when the product was first launched, it is still relatively expensive compared to the average price of about 300 yuan on Taobao.

Referring to the number of participants in the event, the sale of Kindles alone would generate considerable revenue, of course, not counting the platform's share of the costs.

2. Membership Benefits

According to the activity rules, check-in users need to check in for 100 days to complete the challenge, but the free membership benefits for new users are only 30 days. So, assuming that a user purchases a membership for at least two months, a check-in user will also bring in 20 yuan in membership benefits.

3. Get a large number of users

The "2019 China Online Reading Industry Marketing Report" released by iResearch pointed out that as early as 2019, the traffic dividend of the online reading industry had already faded, the customer acquisition cost of online reading will become increasingly higher, and the scale of user growth will also slow down.

Taking Migu Reading into consideration, from the perspective of the product's new user acquisition activities, the slogan is "Invite a friend and earn 36 yuan." Taking into account the personnel operating costs of Internet companies, the customer acquisition cost is temporarily calculated as 40.

From the perspective of customer acquisition, considering that 60% of users are new, the savings in customer acquisition costs are also considerable.

It can also be seen from the download trend of Qimai's Migu Reading in the past three months that the product began to receive considerable downloads on May 18th when the event started. Until the beginning of July, there was a window period between event sales and check-ins, so the download volume showed a downward trend, but on July 1st, the first day of check-ins, there was a sharp increase.

Judging from the revenue brought by the download volume of Migu Reading in the past month given by Qimai, it is also quite objective.

At the same time, as speculated in the previous article, the event may attract a higher proportion of female users, which can further balance the current male-female ratio of the product to a certain extent. At the same time, I believe that female users also have greater consumption potential and bring potential income.

4. Expanding product influence

As mentioned earlier, the self-propagation effect of free activities is very strong, so to a certain extent, it also provides sufficient advertising for Migu Reading. This can be seen from the number of views of the tweets explaining the activity rules on the Migu Reading official account.

At present, the tweet has been read more than 100,000 times. If the promotion on other public accounts and other social platforms is taken into account, this number is estimated to be terrifyingly large. Therefore, from the perspective of expanding the influence of the product, Migu Reading has also made a lot of money from it.

V. Possible Negative Impacts

1. Some people who interrupted the clock-in process may have a bad impression of the product

People who interrupt their clocking in can be divided into three types:

1. Forget, and admit it yourself;
2. I clearly remember that I punched in, but I found that I forgot to punch in (myself). In fact, in most cases, it may be that the user forgot to punch in, but from the user's heart, he still wants to blame the product;
3. I have indeed clocked in and there is a screenshot of the clocking in, but the system inexplicably determines that I have not clocked in. This situation also happened when I searched online and saw other people's feedback after I realized I had missed punching in.

This is definitely a product problem. If it happened to me, I would start swearing in a minute. This phenomenon also made me start to doubt whether I was also misjudged by the system.

In summary, I think users who have experienced failed check-ins are likely to gradually become lost users of the product. Then there are those who actually clock in for 100 days, who may uninstall the app in a hurry after using it, so as to avoid living under the control of clocking in.

2. The users attracted may not be the target users of the product

In terms of product positioning, Migu Reading has become a large and comprehensive mobile reading platform. With the development of 5G, it has also promoted the audiobook function to further improve the reading scene. In terms of book content, online literature is still the main focus, which is also in line with the main preferences of most users of the product.

But from another perspective, a large number of users are attracted by Kindle. Users who use Kindle to read generally prefer to read published books, which may not be limited to novels, but also literature and biography.

Therefore, online literature promoted by Migu Reading, such as "The Domineering President Falls in Love with Me", may be labeled as "vulgar" and "low" by this group of users.

And in terms of reading experience, Migu Reading does not have an advantage.

Comparing WeChat Reading and NetEase Wugu Reading, the picture below is a screenshot of the same part of the same book. It can be seen that WeChat Reading and NetEase Wugu Reading both have a better visual experience, but Migu Reading has large blank spaces and abrupt color display of picture titles, which greatly affects the user experience.

We can also see from the changes in Migu Reading's ratings in the past three months that although the number of five-star reviews for the product has increased significantly since May 18, the star ratings represented by colors other than green have also shown an upward trend year-on-year, which to a certain extent verifies the previous speculation.

VI. Conclusion

After so much preparation above, to sum it up, I just want to say that we really made Migu Reading and China Mobile make a lot of money. Just think about yourself who was ambitious to take advantage of them.

Of course, these judgments may be written from the perspective of a person who failed to check in, so there may be some shortcomings in my insights. I hope everyone can point them out and communicate with each other.

Author: Wangzai0818

Source: Wangzai 0818

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