Is Android becoming the new Windows?

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During my career as a PC analyst, I followed and documented the evolution of the PC. My first project after joining Creative Strategies was working with a newly formed division within IBM to develop the IBM PC. While I was involved in design strategy and retail projects, the IBM PC had already become a sensation and was establishing itself in the PC industry.

Soon after the success of the IBM PC, several copies began to appear. The most successful one was from Compaq. I was invited to attend Compaq's top analyst event. In the early days of the PC, there was really no one who could be called a PC analyst, and those who called themselves PC analysts were mostly focusing on minicomputers. The PC was just beginning to be included in the scope of research.

During our visit to Compaq, we met with Compaq Chairman Ben Rosen and co-founder Rod Canion to learn about their first PC and why they thought it would be successful. The IBM PC had become a powerful force in the market, and I was curious about how Compaq, as a new company, would challenge IBM.

In fact, during my visit, I asked Kanyon why he decided to invest his own money and seek outside financing to challenge IBM. He said that when he was working at Texas Instruments, he knew early on what IBM was doing, and that it would become the standard. He saw the success of the IBM PC and knew that such a PC was assembled from different components. After realizing that the IBM PC would become the standard for commercial computing, he was "sure" that he could develop a competitor to the IBM PC. Soon after, companies such as Dell also launched similar products.

However, all of these computers used an operating system, MS-DOS, which originally came from IBM. Since this operating system was not proprietary, it was licensed to Compaq, Dell, Acer, and several other PC manufacturers. MS-DOS eventually evolved into Windows, which dominated the PC and laptop market for more than 30 years. Of course, Apple also developed an excellent operating system for Mac computers, but Apple's system was proprietary. Although Mac computers sold well, they still sold far less than Windows PCs.

An interesting point is that for most of its life cycle, Windows was an operating system targeted at PCs and laptops. As early as the early 1990s, Microsoft tried to apply Windows to tablets and smart mobile devices. However, due to Microsoft's internal friction and focus on efficiency software, Windows has never been able to take the lead outside the PC market. This opened the door for Apple and Google to develop new operating systems for mobile devices and IoT devices.

Although Apple's iOS is very successful, it is similar to OS X in that it is a proprietary system that only works on Apple products. On the other hand, Android has many elements similar to Windows, such as it is an operating system that can be licensed to other companies and used on a variety of devices. If you look at the smartphones, tablets, and IoT products currently on the market, you can find that 75% of all these devices use Android.

At the recent Google I/O Developer Conference, Google's management made it clear that they hope Android will become the leading operating system in the connected device and IoT market. Similar to Windows, Android is not dependent on hardware and can be easily applied to various mobile devices and IoT devices. More importantly, Android has become the user interface for Google's cloud computing business, and Google is developing a complete product and service ecosystem through Android.

Almost from the beginning, Bill Gates and Microsoft wanted their operating systems, especially Windows, to dominate the world's devices. Microsoft still has this goal, but due to too many choices and internal friction, Microsoft has fallen behind Google and Apple. In markets other than PCs, it is difficult for Windows to become a dominant system in the world.

Apple is trying to dominate the device market with a private model. After launching iPhone, iPad, HealthKit, HomeKit, CarPlay, Apple Watch and Apple TV, Apple has become the largest company in this field. Apple's competitors used to be Microsoft and Windows, but now they are Google and Android. Therefore, Android is becoming the new generation of Windows.

The biggest difference between Microsoft and Google is that Microsoft is still protecting its past products and trying to bring everything into the "One Microsoft" strategy. This is not easy. In the mobile device market, Microsoft's Windows phones lag far behind iPhones and Android phones. In the IoT market, iOS and Android also have obvious advantages and better development momentum. Most market research institutions believe that Android will become the dominant player in the mobile and IoT markets because it does not rely on device hardware and anyone can obtain a license for free.

Android has become the "Windows of our time," and Google is extending its lead in the mobile and IoT markets. Apple is a worthy competitor. I don't think Microsoft will rest on its laurels and cede market leadership to Google. However, Google's lead in both markets is significant. If Google continues to work in this direction and ensures that users are happy, then Android will continue to dominate the mobile and IoT industries, at least in terms of scale, for years to come.