The traffic dividend has disappeared, where is the way out for the promotion of small and medium-sized apps?
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The truth behind the disappearance of traffic dividends The fundamental reason for the disappearance of the traffic dividend is that the growth rate of mobile Internet has slowed down, and the growth of mobile phone users has basically come to an end. The remaining fourth-tier cities and rural users have mobile phones, but they do not generate much traffic because they only answer calls and send WeChat messages. Many people cannot even withdraw change, so the commercial value of this kind of attention is not great. The growth of user attention has also basically come to an end. At the end of 2015, the average mobile phone Internet time per person was 2.3 hours. After all, mobile phones cannot be used for work like computers, and users also have to eat and sleep. This time has already occupied most of the user's leisure time, and there is very little room for growth. Overall, traffic is still growing, just at a slower pace. But the pace of competition is accelerating, so traffic is becoming increasingly scarce and more expensive. In 2016, the opening rate of WeChat public accounts has declined and it is difficult to gain fans. The reason is that the original users have already followed enough public accounts, and with the increasing number of new public accounts, it is bound to be very difficult to divert users' attention; and as users follow more and more public accounts, they are overloaded with information and will inevitably only open a few public accounts they like, or only open public accounts with attractive article titles. However, the traffic of the entire public account system is increasing, but the speed is slowing down, while competition is accelerating. After all, the length of time users stay on WeChat is still increasing. As of July 2016, data released by iResearch showed that WeChat had 680 million daily active users and the average daily dwell time per person was 90 minutes, which is more than half of the average daily dwell time of users on their phones. Big brands are determining the market price of traffic Entering 2016, traffic is becoming more and more expensive: ·The traffic dividend disappears ·More and more new apps ·Media parties continue to raise prices ·Traditional brands accelerate their online presence and develop apps ·Big brands aggressively buy traffic At the same time, traffic conversion is getting worse and worse: ·Users’ attention is fragmented, and channel trust is declining. ·Users are highly recognizable and increasingly disgusted with advertisements . ·Users have changed from being information-poor and passively accepting to being information-overloaded and actively producing information. It can be said that the App promotion market has undergone tremendous changes in recent years, from a few cents to acquire a user in the early days to hundreds or thousands now, the price of traffic has become out of reach. We all know that 3/1000 is a key figure for Internet traffic. To acquire a user, approximately 333 clicks are required. If the price per click is 1 yuan, then the cost of acquiring a user is 333 yuan. 0.3% is not a universal number, but it reflects a basic truth. The cost of purely purchasing traffic will not be low. From clicks to registrations, from registrations to purchases, no matter how low the threshold of the product is, to acquire a user, you need to invest 100 to 300 yuan or even more. As traditional brands accelerate their online presence and Internet giants emerge, they are determining the market price of traffic. Since traditional brands and Internet brands have accumulated reputation and popularity, they have higher conversion rates than small and medium-sized apps and their CAC is lower. At the same time, they have more mature commercial monetization capabilities and their AR PU values are higher. We know that the CAC and ARPU values are relative, that is, how high or low they are compared with the levels of peers. For example, the cost for Taobao to acquire a user is 300, while that for JD.com is 400, so Taobao’s CAC is lower. In the competition for traffic among big brands, in addition to brand building and self-built entrances, they also ensure the security of traffic by holding large-traffic apps, such as Alibaba's acquisition of UC, Youku, and holding of Weibo. However, the competition for traffic between big brands and small brands is entirely based on market bidding. For example, when a clothing e-commerce company competes with Vipshop, the traffic will tilt towards Vipshop. Taking information flow as an example, if the CPC is 1 yuan and the conversion rate is 0.2%, the CAC is 500. The conversion rate of big brands is higher than 0.2%, assuming it is 2.5%, then the CPC of big brands can withstand a price of 1.25 yuan. At this time, traffic will tend to favor big brands. On the other hand, for the same high-quality paying user, the ARPU value of small and medium-sized e-commerce companies may be only 500 yuan, while that of Vipshop may be 1,000 yuan. Big brands have stronger traffic monetization capabilities, which also makes them have stronger traffic purchasing power. In fact, whether it is long-tail CPC resources or high-quality CPM resources, the high conversion and mature traffic monetization capabilities of big brands have made big brands determine the market price of traffic. When the CAC of a big brand equals ARPU value, the traffic price reaches a critical point; for small and medium-sized apps, this price has already exceeded the critical point for their traffic promotion. When the traffic dividend disappears, traditional brands accelerate their online presence, Internet oligopolies form, and big brands dominate the market price of traffic, when they push the price of traffic to a high level, the era of simply purchasing traffic for promotion is over for all small and medium-sized enterprises. Traffic can only bring exposure, conversion is king In the early days of APP promotion , applying for a first release could bring thousands of activations, and the ASO effect was also very good. As app stores gradually become commercialized, the price of pay-per-download has become more and more expensive, from a few cents to several dollars, and the registration and retention rates are very low. The reason is very simple. Users’ mobile phones are already filled with various apps. Just like the current low opening rate of WeChat public accounts, they are seriously overloaded. Traffic can only bring exposure, conversion is king. Since the price of traffic is getting more and more expensive and the conversion rate is getting worse and worse, small and medium-sized apps need to find lower-priced traffic and better conversion rates. Fundamentally speaking, if the conversion rate is not high, the one-to-one traffic promotion method is not suitable for small and medium-sized APPs. Only with the help of mobile Internet sharing can one-to-many traffic growth be achieved. Even if the conversion rate is not high, CAC can be lower than ARPU value. Or add strategies that are conducive to conversion, so that even when the traffic price is high, CAC can be achieved lower than ARPU value. Borrow WeChat Since half of users’ attention is on WeChat, WeChat is the best connection platform. WeChat public account: follow users to the public account and influence them subtly . Moments: import fans to personal WeChat account and take advantage of the high reach and high conversion of Moments . WeChat group : accumulate relationships and use QR codes to achieve fission sharing in Moments. WeChat big account: find high-quality IP and carry out creative activities . Promote H5: use Yiqixiu to vote and collect sales leads; or develop H5 mini games . Borrow promotion Big brands can be pushed hard, but small apps can only strengthen sales promotion and promote conversion . Big turntable: download and register, invite friends, share on Moments, and get a chance to win a prize . Other ways to play: red envelopes, experience coupons, physical prizes, cash back, discounts Leverage influence Everyone is a medium, make good use of KOLs and seed users ·Sponsor KOLs: sponsor KOLs with exclusive gift packages, such as 100,000 taxi coupons, to gain word-of-mouth recommendations ·Partners: give users special honors to encourage them to promote voluntarily ·Big IP: cooperate with first- and second-tier Internet companies to help them achieve a certain KPI, thereby leveraging momentum ·Seminars: organize industry conferences to improve credibility ·Endorsement: XX investment Just as many people say, developing an APP is not as good as just creating a WeChat public account. WeChat has become the best communication channel because users' attention is mainly on WeChat. The social relationship will undoubtedly further improve the conversion rate. Coupled with the convenience of WeChat payment, WeChat promotion should be the most important part of small and medium-sized apps. In addition, while downplaying simple advertising, we should strengthen experience and event marketing , media and public relations communications, and maximize the use of KOLs and seed users. I believe that in the next few years, social channels will be the best promotion platform for most small and medium-sized apps. After the traffic dividend disappears, small and medium-sized enterprises that cannot afford the high cost of traffic should abandon their original traffic thinking and transfer their beachhead from traditional SEM , SEO , DSP, ASO, etc. to social platforms, and establish a complete social marketing system from content creation, traffic distribution, fan sedimentation, event management, and data analysis , so as to gradually get rid of the traffic dilemma. More fundamentally, products are the source of traffic growth. Only by continuously optimizing product design, optimizing user acquisition and conversion paths, managing user value, and achieving user activity and word-of-mouth growth, can we gradually get rid of the problem of having to re-purchase traffic after user loss and the lack of follow-up strength to form self-growth. Mobile application product promotion services: ASO optimization services Cucumber Advertising Alliance The author of this article @刘渝民 is compiled and published by (APP Top Promotion). Please indicate the author information and source when reprinting! |
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